The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, March 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: COL is 7-18 (-6.66 units) on the road in the last two seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match: FADE COLORADO (+180 at TB) 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 368-352 (51.1%) for +24.98 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.5%.
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-130 vs. BAL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results.
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-218 vs. DET) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for 8.01 units. The ROI on this angle is at +2.3% ROI.
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-218 vs. DET) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 & ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results.
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-218 vs. DET) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. So far in the 2025 season, they are 3-2 for +1.40 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+110 at SD), BALTIMORE (+110 at TOR), TEXAS (+105 vs. BOS), NY METS (+120 at HOU) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. So far in the 2025 season, they are 3-2 for +1.40 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+110 at SD), BALTIMORE (+110 at TOR), TEXAS (+105 vs. BOS), NY METS (+120 at HOU) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This is a massive one-year swing for this system in 2024 and it was removed from the Analytics Report. We will give it a chance in 2025 but monitor it closely.
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING LA DODGERS (-218 vs. DET) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

 DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going for an ROI of about +17%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): *WATCH FOR LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gotten an ROI of 1.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors look for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of two full baseball seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): HOUSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going for an ROI of about -11%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, NY METS, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of the 2023 season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they had an atrocious ROI of -27%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 368-352 (51.1%) for +24.98 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.5%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-130 vs. BAL) 

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1695-1599 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -218.28 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, CHICAGO CUBS

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1624-2077 (43.9%) for -179.19 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS, NY METS 

Home teams that did score well in the last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3414-3013 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -484.21 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO 

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 966-839 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +10.84 units for backers and an ROI of 0.6%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-130 vs. BAL) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 497-420 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.46 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-125 vs. NYM)

MLB Streak Systems

The following MLB betting trends systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK SYSTEMS YET 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +124 (+42 diff), COLORADO +180 (+35 diff), DETROIT +185 (+40 diff) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SAN DIEGO -125 (+16 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-MIA OVER 7.5 (+0.6), CHC-AZ OVER 8.5 (+0.7), ATH-SEA OVER 7 (+0.5), NYM-HOU OVER 8 (+1.0), DET-LAD OVER 7 (+0.8)

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years. 

(965) PITTSBURGH (0-1) at (966) MIAMI (1-0)
Trend: PIT is 10-17 (-6.26 units) vs. NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last six seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-148 at MIA)

Trend: PIT is just 7-18 (-7.45 units) vs teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last six seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-148 at MIA) 

(971) BALTIMORE (1-0) at (972) TORONTO (0-1)
Trend: TOR is 7-13 (-11.94 units) vs. AL East foes in the last two seasons with Kevin Gausman
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-130 vs. BAL) 

(973) BOSTON (1-0) at (974) TEXAS (0-1)
Trend: BOS is 6-15 (-9.65 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck in his career
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-120 at TEX) 

(977) COLORADO (0-0) at (978) TAMPA BAY (0-0)
Trend: COL is 7-18 (-6.66 units) on the road in the last two seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+180 at TB) 

(979) NEW YORK-NL (0-1) at (980) HOUSTON (1-0)
Trend: HOU is 3-9 (-8.25 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-125 vs. NYM) 

(981) DETROIT (0-1) at (982) LOS ANGELES-NL (3-0)
Trend: Jack Flaherty is 5-6 (-1.65 units) in road games against NL West opponents
System Match: SLIGHT FADE DETROIT (+185 at LAD)

Series #3: Chicago Cubs at Arizona, Thu 3/27-Sun 3/30
Trend: Underdogs are 14-6 (70%, +9.90 units) in the last 20 of head-to-head series
–  The ROI on this trend is 49.5%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at AZ)

Series #29: Boston at Texas, Thu 3/27-Sun 3/30
Trend: Home teams are 17-10 (63%, +4.03 units) since 2021 in TEX-BOS h2h series
– The ROI on this trend is 23.7%
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+100 vs. BOS)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES YET

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