The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, April 14, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

SAN DIEGO MOMENTUM after series vs. COL: 21-10 (67.7%) 13.47 units, ROI: 43.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-155 vs. CHC)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 313-251 record for +61.67 units and a ROI of 10.9% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-102 at MIN), HOUSTON (-108 at STL) 

Trend: Taijuan Walker is 6-19 (-12.23 units) at night against teams with a >=55% win pct in the last five seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-118 vs. SF) 

* Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a good start so far, 13-7 for +4.28 units.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-218 vs WSH) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams are off to an uncustomary good start, 7-2 for +2.04 units. However, that can still be just one loss from going negative.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-218 vs. WSH) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a good start, 12-2 for +7.84 units, a ROI of 56%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-345 vs. COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2923 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 32-48 for -11.51 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at PHI), NY METS (-102 at MIN), HOUSTON (-108 at STL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have been a blemish on our overall good start, as they are 29-43 for -11.60 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at PHI), NY METS (-102 at MIN), HOUSTON (-108 at STL) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 21-11 for +10.99 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle so this year’s results (14-10, +4.30 units) are uncharacteristic.
System Match (FADE): 2-games – CHICAGO CUBS (+130 at SD) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in ’25 and so far it is 19-14 for +1.72 units.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-155 vs. CHC) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a good start so far, 13-7 for +4.28 units.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-218 vs. WSH)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and a ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): BOSTON, NY METS, HOUSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%. May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and an ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, NY METS, DETROIT 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-PHI

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 334-256 for +43.93 units and an ROI of 7.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-155 vs. CHC) 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 166-101 for +41.69 units and a ROI of 15.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-118 at TOR)
*watch for HOUSTON at STL, -108 currently

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 85-136 for -47.94 units and a ROI of -21.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): *watch for ST LOUIS vs HOU, -112 currently 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 268-233 but for -62.05 units and an ROI of -12.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-118 vs. SF) 

MLB Series Betting System #8: Home favorites opening up an interleague series have gone 117-49 but for +17.67 units and an ROI of 10.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-118 vs. NYM), ST LOUIS (-112 vs. HOU) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 313-251 record for +61.67 units and a ROI of 10.9% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-102 at MIN), HOUSTON (-108 at STL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1659-2123 (43.9%) for -188.56 units and an ROI of -5.0% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-155 at MIL), COLORADO (+275 at LAD) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3473-3051 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -473.16 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-102 vs. ATL), TAMPA BAY (-130 vs. BOS), MINNESOTA (-118 vs. NYM), ST LOUIS (-112 vs. HOU), SAN DIEGO (-155 vs. CHC) 

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 991-851 (53.8%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +22.36 units for backers and an ROI of 1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-218 vs. WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-118 vs. SF) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 506-425 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +22.38 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-118 vs. SF)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +275 (+50 diff), WASHINGTON +180 (+26), TORONTO -102 (+15) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PHILADELPHIA -118 (+19 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHC-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.7), WSH-PIT OVER 7 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-TOR UNDER 9 (-0.8), NYM-MIN UNDER 8 (-0.6), COL-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.6) 

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years. 

(903) SAN FRANCISCO (11-4) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (9-6)
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 6-19 (-12.23 units) at night against teams with a >=55% win pct in the last five seasons
Trend Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-118 vs. SF)

(909) KANSAS CITY (8-8) at (910) NEW YORK-AL (8-7)
Trend: Seth Lugo is 6-14 (-9.82 units) on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
Trend Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (+120 at NYY)

(915) NEW YORK-NL (10-5) at (916) MINNESOTA (5-11)
Trend: Joe Ryan is 13-5 (+6.22 units) in his first five starts of each season (in the last 3+ seasons)
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-118 vs NYM) 

(919) HOUSTON (7-8) at (920) ST LOUIS (7-8)
Trend: HOU is 8-3 (+4.97 units) as a slight underdog (between -108 to +105) with starter Framber Valdez in the last six seasons
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-108 at STL)

Series #1: San Francisco at Philadelphia, Mon 4/14-Thu 4/17
Trend: Home teams are on a 15-2 (88.2%, +13.27 units) run in the Giants-Phillies National League series.
– The ROI on this trend is 78.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-118 vs SF) 

Series #15: Boston at Tampa Bay, Mon 4/14-Wed 4/16, Fri 9/19-Sun 9/21
Trend: Boston has lost 18 of its last 23 (21.7%, -13.10 units) games at Tampa Bay (4-2, +1.93 units last season, however)
– The ROI on this trend is -57%
Trend Match (CONSIDER FADING): BOSTON (+110 at TB) 

Series #23: Atlanta at Toronto, Mon 4/14-Wed 4/16
Trend: Atlanta is 3-11 (21.4%, -11.02 units) in the last 14 games against Toronto (since mid-2020)
– The ROI on this trend is -78.7%
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-118 at TOR)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

COLORADO     
Momentum after series vs. SAN DIEGO: 18-13 (58.1%) 10.45 units, ROI: 33.7%
Next betting opportunity: Monday, April 14 at LA Dodgers   
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+275 at LAD) 

SAN DIEGO
Momentum after series vs. COLORADO: 21-10 (67.7%) 13.47 units, ROI: 43.5%
Next betting opportunity: Monday, April 14 vs Chicago Cubs
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-155 vs. CHC)

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