The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, April 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 316-257 record for +58.53 units and a ROI of 10.2% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-102 at HOU) 

Trend: Cleveland has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 27-10 (73%) for +19.83 units.
–  The ROI on this trend is 53.6%.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-125 vs. MIN) 

Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 96-106 (-48.37 units, ROI: -23.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-120 vs. STL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a good start, 28-7 for +10.82 units, a ROI of 30.9%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-285 vs. MIA) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 59-85 for -16.76 units.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-110 vs. ATH) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 51-77 for -21.67 units. This is definitely a stain on an overall great start for my bullpen ratings.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-110 vs. ATH) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 27-32 for -4.69 units (ROI -7.9%), and have dropped -15.72 units over the last three weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (20-14, +6.71 units) are uncharacteristic.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – MINNESOTA (+105 at CLE), DETROIT (-102 at HOU) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far it is 34-27 for -4.84 units.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-120 vs. STL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and an ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, NY YANKEES, DETROIT, ATLANTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-TEX 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 342-262 for +44.79 units and a ROI of 7.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-120 vs STL), MINNESOTA (+105 at CLE), DETROIT (-102 at HOU) 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 170-109 for +36.22 units and a ROI of 13% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-130 at BAL)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 275-237 but for -60.41 units and a ROI of -11.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-120 vs. STL), HOUSTON (-118 vs. DET) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 316-257 record for +58.53 units and a ROI of 10.2% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-102 at HOU)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1722-1647 (51.1%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -247.46 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-285 vs MIA) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1679-2161 (43.7%) for -206.05 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+100 at CIN)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3517-3088 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -482.00 units and a ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+136 vs. NYM), CINCINNATI (-120 vs. STL), HOUSTON (-118 vs. DET), LA DODGERS (-285 vs. MIA) 

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1004-856 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +29.48 units for backers and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+145 vs ATL) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 516-430 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.77 units, for an ROI of 2.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+145 vs. ATL), BALTIMORE (+110 vs. NYY) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 162-182 (+3.23 units, ROI: 0.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+145 vs ATL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 96-106 (-48.37 units, ROI: -23.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-120 vs STL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +230 (+35 diff), BALTIMORE +110 (+26)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATL-COL OVER 10 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-WSH UNDER 10 (-1.3), STL-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), ATH-TEX UNDER 9 (-0.7)

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years. 

(907) MIAMI (12-15) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (18-10)
Trend: MIA is 4-10 (-5.32 units) against teams with a >57% win pct with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+230 at LAD) 

(909) MINNESOTA (12-16) at (910) CLEVELAND (15-12)
Trend: MIN is 7-13 (-7.98 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (*if they fall into this line range, +105 currently)

Series #3: Minnesota at Cleveland, Mon 4/28-Thu 5/1
Trend: Cleveland has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 27-10 (73%) for +19.83 units.
– The ROI on this trend is 53.6%.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-125 vs. MIN) 

Series #21: Atlanta at Colorado, Mon 4/28-Wed 4/30
Trend: Atlanta has won 16 of the last 20 games against Colorado (80%, +6.33 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 31.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-175 at COL)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, April 29)

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