Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, April 7, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Luis Severino is 8-23 (-13.31 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+124 vs. SD)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 163-96 for +45.77 units and a ROI of 17.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-125 at PIT)
* The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 133-103 (+14.17 units, ROI: 6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+105 at CHC)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! So far in the ’25 season, this system is 7-2 for +2.44 units.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-278 vs. MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. So far in the 2025 season, it has started off slow with a 14-27 record for -11.86 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+114 at BOS), MINNESOTA (+100 at KC), HOUSTON (+140 at SEA), TEXAS (+105 at CHC)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. So far in the 2025 season, it is slightly better than the general underdog system, but still just 13-24 for -10.31 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+114 at BOS), MINNESOTA (+100 at KC), HOUSTON (+140 at SEA), TEXAS (+105 at CHC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6% (in the 2025 season, they are 7-3 for +4.65 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units, an ROI of -7.2% (in the 2025 season, they are 11-5 for +5.78 units). This has been a very consistent angle.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – WASHINGTON (+145 vs. LAD)
3+ games – DETROIT (+136 vs. NYY), BOSTON (-135 vs. TOR)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This is a massive one-year swing for this system in 2024, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. We will give it a chance in 2025, but monitor it closely. So far in the 2025 season, this system is 12-8 for +2.23 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-278 vs. MIA), SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs. CIN), TEXAS (+105 at CHC)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! So far in the 2025 season, this system is 6-4 for +0.74 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-125 at PIT), TORONTO (+114 at BOS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going for an ROI of about +17%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gotten an ROI of 1.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors are looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of two full baseball seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two years when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group has had an ROI of 11%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going for an ROI of about -11%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of the 2023 season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they had an atrocious ROI of -27%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, SEATTLE
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 329-250 for +46.43 units and an ROI of 8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-278 vs. MIA), SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs. CIN), DETROIT (+136 vs. NYY), BOSTON (-135 vs. TOR), TEXAS (+105 at CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 163-96 for +45.77 units and a ROI of 17.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-125 at PIT)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 82-134 for -48.94 units and a ROI of -22.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+105 vs. STL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 257-222 but for -57.79 units and an ROI of -12.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs. SF), BOSTON (-135 vs. TOR), KANSAS CITY (-120 vs. MIN), SEATTLE (-166 vs. HOU), CHICAGO CUBS (-125 vs. TEX), ARIZONA (-125 vs. BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #8: Home favorites opening up an interleague series have gone 109-44 but for +16.51 units and an ROI of 10.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-125 vs. TEX), ARIZONA (-125 vs. BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 307-246 record for +60.05 units and an ROI of 10.9% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+140 at SEA), SAN DIEGO (-148 at ATH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1705-1617 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -229.70 units. This represents an ROI of -6.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+140 at SEA), BOSTON (-135 vs. TOR)
Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1646-2105 (43.9%) for -183.85 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, CINCINNATI, BALTIMORE
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3452-3031 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -468.94 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, PITTSBURGH, ATHLETICS, CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 203-114 (+1.90 units, ROI: 0.6%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs. CIN), BOSTON (-135 vs. TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 133-103 (+14.17 units, ROI: 6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+105 at CHC)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 186-125 in their last 311 tries (+19.88 units, ROI: 6.4%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs. CIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 93-101 (-45.33 units, ROI: -23.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs. CIN), BOSTON (-135 vs. TOR)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +225 (+45 diff), PITTSBURGH +105 (+18), HOUSTON +140 (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SAN DIEGO -155 (+30 diff)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: STL-PIT OVER 8 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-WSH UNDER 8 (-0.6), SD-ATH UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.
(957) CINCINNATI (3-7) at (958) SAN FRANCISCO (8-1)
Trend: CIN is 3-15 (-10.78 units) as a large underdog +135 or worse by starter Hunter Greene
Trend Match: FADE CINCINNATI (*if they fall into this line range, +130 currently*)
Trend: SF is 16-4 (+8.42 units) as a night favorite of -160 or higher with starter Logan Webb in the last six seasons (including 12-1 (+10.38 units) at home)
Trend Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (*if they fall into this line range, -155 currently*)
(969) BALTIMORE (4-6) at (970) ARIZONA (5-5)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 24-11 (+7.47 units) in night games in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+105 at AZ)
(971) SAN DIEGO (8-2) at (972) ATHLETICS (4-6)
Trend: Luis Severino is 8-23 (-13.31 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match: FADE ATHLETICS (+124 vs. SD)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, April 8)
