Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, June 9, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 276-177 for +59.36 units, and a ROI of 13.1%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-107 at PIT), TORONTO (-105 at STL), SAN DIEGO (+100 vs LAD)
Trend: Under the total is 25-10-2 (+14.00 units) in Brewers’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MIL (o/u at 7.5)
* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 325-163 (66.6%) for +42.93 units and a ROI of 8.8%!
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-115 vs. TB)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is just 18-19 (-10.31 units) as a home night favorite in his career
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-164 vs. ATH)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 87-50 for +24.36 units, and an ROI of 17.8%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-107 at PIT), TORONTO (-105 at STL), SAN DIEGO (+100 vs. LAD)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are in the black once again and riding a six-week winning streak. For the season, the record is now 163-178 for +11.27 units, an ROI of 3.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-107 at PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (+109 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (-105 at BOS), MILWAUKEE (+143 vs. ATL), TORONTO (-105 at STL), SEATTLE (+140 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (+100 vs. LAD)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now 143-154 for +2.61 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-107 at PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (+109 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (-105 at BOS), MILWAUKEE (+143 vs. ATL), TORONTO (-105 at STL), SEATTLE (+140 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (+100 vs. LAD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 81-86 for -1.69 units (ROI -1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle so this year’s results (42-39, +5.06 units) are somewhat surprising.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – BOSTON (-115 vs TB)
3-games – CINCINNATI (+129 at CLE), PITTSBURGH (-113 vs MIA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, TORONTO, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-AZ
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 369-283 for +49.08 units and an ROI of 7.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+129 at CLE), PITTSBURGH (-113 vs MIA)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 183-129 for +25.24 units and a ROI of 8.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-121 at SD)
*watch for TORONTO at STL, -108 currently
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 291-261 but for -78.04 units and a ROI of -14.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-136 vs. CHC), BOSTON (-115 vs. TB), ARIZONA (-169 vs. SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #8: Home favorites opening up an interleague series have gone 138-69 but for +3.71 units and an ROI of 1.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-158 vs. CIN), ST LOUIS (-112 vs. TOR), ARIZONA (-169 vs. SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 336-278 record for +55.51 units and an ROI of 9% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-121 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1791-1708 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.84 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-115 vs. TB)
Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1774-2256 (44%) for -195.49 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-107 at PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (+112 at PHI)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3633-3193 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -499.22 units and a ROI of -7.3%.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-115 vs. TB)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1031-893 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +12.04 units for backers and an ROI of 0.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-136 vs. CHC), MILWAUKEE (+143 vs. ATL), SAN DIEGO (+100 vs. LAD), LA ANGELS (-164 vs. ATH)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 535-455 (54%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +16.10 units, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+143 vs. ATL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 325-163 (66.6%) for +42.93 units and an ROI of 8.8%!
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-115 vs. TB)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 64-132 skid (-34.64 units, ROI: -17.7%).
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-175 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-19 (+12.01 units, ROI: 32.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 77-160 (-59.75 units, ROI: -25.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-175 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 221-220 run (+33.07 units, ROI: 7.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-136 vs. CHC), ATLANTA (-175 at MIL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY -105 (+17 diff), MILWAUKEE +143 (+17), SEATTLE +140 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHC-PHI OVER 7.5 (+0.7), TB-BOS OVER 8.5 (+0.6), ATL-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.5), LAD-SD OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), ATH-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) MIAMI (24-39) at (902) PITTSBURGH (26-40)
Trend: MIA is 1-6 (-6.60 units) against NL Central/West opponents with starter Eury Perez since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-107 at PIT)
(903) CHICAGO-NL (40-25) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (37-28)
Trend: CHC has the best road record in the MLB this season (20-13, +6.90 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+112 at PHI)
(905) ATLANTA (27-37) at (906) MILWAUKEE (35-31)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 22-8 (+8.47 units) against teams with a < 43% win pct in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+143 vs. ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 25-10-2 (+14.00 units) in Brewers’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MIL (o/u at 7.5)
(907) LOS ANGELES-NL (39-27) at (908) SAN DIEGO (37-27)
Trend: Under the total is 14-7-1 (+6.30 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-SD (o/u at 8)
(909) TAMPA BAY (35-30) at (910) BOSTON (32-35)
Trend: BOS is 16-14 (+3.90 units) against divisional teams with starter Brayan Bello
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BOSTON (-115 vs. TB)
(911) ATHLETICS (26-41) at (912) LOS ANGELES-AL (30-34)
Trend: Over the total is 27-14-4 (+11.60 units) when ATH is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATH-LAA (o/u at 9)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is just 18-19 (-10.31 units) as a night home favorite in his career
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-164 vs. ATH)
(913) CINCINNATI (33-33) at (914) CLEVELAND (34-30)
Trend: CLE is 3-11 (-7.41 units) vs. LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-158 vs. CIN)
(915) TORONTO (35-30) at (916) ST LOUIS (36-29)
Trend: TOR is 25-13 (+10.95 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-1.5 at STL)
Trend: STL is 21-11 (+9.38 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-112 vs TOR)
(917) SEATTLE (33-31) at (918) ARIZONA (31-34)
Trend: SEA is 13-5 (+7.35 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+1.5 at AZ)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, June 10)
