The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, May 5, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 202-200 run (+31.47 units, ROI: 7.8%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+120 at STL) 

Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 13-1 (92.9%) versus the Chicago White Sox, netting +11.95 units.
– The ROI on this trend is 85.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-245 vs. CWS) 

* NY YANKEES monentum after series vs. TB: 25-8 (75.8%) +13.30 units, ROI: 40.3%     
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-155 vs. SD)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 322-260 record for +61.53 units and a ROI of 10.6% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at CHC)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 36-11 for +8.82 units, a ROI of 18.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-218 at MIA), KANSAS CITY (-245 vs. CWS) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 26-10 for +2.35 units. However, this system has been turning back towards its usual pattern in the last few weeks.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-218 at MIA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25, but the start has been bad, 72-103 for -19.87 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at CHC), NY METS (-102 at AZ), ATHLETICS (-108 vs. SEA), SAN DIEGO (+130 at NYY), HOUSTON (-105 at MIL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 63-91 for -21.98 units. This is definitely a disappointment early in the season, but it can still be made up.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at CHC), NY METS (-102 at AZ), ATHLETICS (-108 vs. SEA), SAN DIEGO (+130 at NYY), HOUSTON (-105 at MIL) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 35-39 for -3.40 units (ROI -4.6%), but have dropped -14.43 units over the last three-and-a-half weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (24-19, +5.25 units) are uncharacteristic.
System Match (FADE): 2-games – WASHINGTON (+100 vs. CLE) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 42-37 for -10.67 units. It seems that there have been fewer than normal streaks reaching into the four-game range and more so far this season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at CHC), SAN DIEGO (+130 at NYY) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorite of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY handle TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-AZ

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 346-266 for +44.22 units and an ROI of 7.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at CHC), SAN DIEGO (+130 at NYY) 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 173-110 for +38.00 units and a ROI of 13.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-112 at ATH), CLEVELAND (-120 at WSH) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 279-239 but for -59.18 units and a ROI of -11.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs. SF), ARIZONA (-118 vs. NYM)

MLB Series Betting System #8: Home favorites opening up an interleague series have gone 124-55 but for +14.25 units and an ROI of 8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-155 vs. SD), MILWAUKEE (-115 vs. HOU) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 322-260 record for +61.53 units and an ROI of 10.6% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at CHC)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1734-1657 (51.1%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -248.70 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO 

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1693-2171 (43.8%) for -198.22 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, CINCINNATI, SEATTLE

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3534-3102 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -481.87 units and a ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, NY YANKEES, ST LOUIS, ARIZONA 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 521-440 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.15 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs. SF) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 316-160 (66.4%) for +40.63 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-245 vs. CWS) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 291-251 (53.7%) for +30.45 units and an ROI of 5.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-155 vs. SD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 118-102 outright (+6.13 units, ROI: 2.8%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+120 at STL) 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 202-200 run (+31.47 units, ROI: 7.8%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+120 at STL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 137-110 (+8.86 units, ROI: 3.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+130 at NYY)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +200 (+21 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +136 (+20), MIAMI +180 (+17) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-KC UNDER 8 (-0.7), NYM-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years. 

(959) NEW YORK-NL (22-13) at (960) ARIZONA (18-16)
Trend: Griffin Canning is 1-12 (-12.07 units) on the road in the +105 to -130 line range in the last six years
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-102 at AZ) 

(963) SEATTLE (20-13) at (964) ATHLETICS (19-16)
Trend: Bryce Miller is 13-8 (+5.85 units) versus teams with a winning record since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-112 at ATH)

Trend: Luis Severino is 10-25 (-12.91 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-108 vs. SEA) 

(967) SAN DIEGO (22-11) at (968) NEW YORK-AL (19-15)
Trend: Nick Pivetta is 0-11 (-11.35 units) in road matchups against NYY or Tampa Bay since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+130 at NYY) 

Series #4: NY Mets at Arizona, Mon 5/5-Wed 5/7
Trend: NY Mets are 24-9 (72.7%, +13.67 units) in the last 33 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
–  The ROI on this trend is 41.4%.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-102 at AZ)

Series #9: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City, Mon 5/5-Thu 5/8
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 13-1 (92.9%) versus the Chicago White Sox, netting +11.95 units.
– The ROI on this trend is 85.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-245 vs. CWS)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NY YANKEES
Momentum after series vs. TAMPA BAY: 25-8 (75.8%) 13.30 units, ROI: 40.3%
Next betting opportunity: Monday, May 5 vs. San Diego
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-155 vs. SD)

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