The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, April 12, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 372-354 (51.2%) for +26.28 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-135 vs. SF), ARIZONA (-180 vs. MIL) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 267-233 but for -63.05 units and an ROI of -12.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-125 vs. TOR)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 29-44 for -10.79 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at NYY), ATLANTA (+114 at TB) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have been a blemish on our overall good start, as they are 26-40 for -11.89 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at NYY), ATLANTA (+114 at TB) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far it is 16-13 for -0.28 units.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-135 vs. KC)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early ’25 returns:

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and a ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, NY METS, ATLANTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, BOSTON, ATLANTA, TEXAS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-AZ

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 267-233 but for -63.05 units and an ROI of -12.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-125 vs TOR)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 372-354 (51.2%) for +26.28 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-135 vs. SF), ARIZONA (-180 vs. MIL)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1705-1626 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -242.11 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-155 vs. LAA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs. BOS), SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at NYY) 

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1655-2117 (43.9%) for -186.48 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, BOSTON, PHILADELPHIA, COLORADO, CHICAGO CUBS

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3463-3045 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -475.73 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, TAMPA BAY, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO, ATHLETICS 

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 983-850 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +15.36 units for backers and an ROI of 0.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-125 vs. TOR), ARIZONA (-180 vs. MIL), NY YANKEES (-135 vs. SF), CINCINNATI (-130 vs. PIT)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 504-424 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +22.76 units, for an ROI of 2.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-125 vs. TOR), ARIZONA (-180 vs. MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE +150 (+26 diff), TEXAS +124 (+15) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS -142 (+38 diff), CINCINNATI -130 (+18), LA DODGERS -180 (+15) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-STL OVER 8 (+0.7), WSH-MIA OVER 7.5 (+0.5), TEX-SEA OVER 7 (+0.5), SF-NYY OVER 8 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIL-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.9), ATL-TB UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), DET-MIN UNDER 9 (-0.5), KC-CLE UNDER 7.5 (-0.5)

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.

(921) LOS ANGELES-AL (8-5) at (922) HOUSTON (6-7)
Trend: Tyler Anderson is 19-10 (+12.66 units) vs. AL West teams in the last six seasons
Trend Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (+130 at HOU)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, April 14)

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