Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, April 19, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, off a very strong week, it is showing out well, 15-7 for +6.58 units, a ROI of 29.9%.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+114 vs. WSH)
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 96-105 (-47.37 units, ROI: -23.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+110 at TB)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 26-6 (+16.84 units) in home day games in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+105 vs. SEA)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks is not good in the short +100 to +128 underdog role, 4-16 record (-11.55 units)
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+114 vs. SF)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams are off to an uncustomary good start, 12-2 for +7.04 units. However, that can still be just two highly priced losses from going negative.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs. MIA), ATLANTA (-205 vs. MIN)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a great start, 15-2 for +10.90 units, an ROI of 64.1%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-340 vs. CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 and ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are unusually positive, 12-2 for +7.44 units. Don’t be surprised if/when this system turns the other way quickly.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs. MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 37-60 for -18.69 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-105 at CHC), COLORADO (+114 vs. WSH), TORONTO (+105 vs. SEA), NY YANKEES (+110 at TB), CLEVELAND (+145 at PIT), LA DODGERS (-108 at TEX)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 33-54 for -19.55 units. I believe part of this is a reaction to several highly rated bullpens out of the gate faltering and vice versa.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-105 at CHC), COLORADO (+114 vs. WSH), TORONTO (+105 vs. SEA), NY YANKEES (+110 at TB), LA DODGERS (-108 at TEX)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and so far it is 26-18 for +4.55 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+105 vs. SEA), BOSTON (-340 vs. CWS), NY YANKEES (+110 at TB), LA DODGERS (-108 at TEX), MILWAUKEE (-125 vs. ATH)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, off a very strong week, it is showing out well, 15-7 for +6.58 units, a ROI of 29.9%.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+114 vs. WSH)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and a ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): ARIZONA, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and a ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, CINCINNATI, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO, MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors on ROAD TEAMS in MARCH/APRIL of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and an ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, SEATTLE, CINCINNATI, LA DODGERS, WASHINGTON, SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 169-103 for +42.42 units and a ROI of 15.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): *watch for WASHINGTON at COL, -135 currently
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1711-1636 (51.1%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -246.06 units. This represents an ROI of -7.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND, BOSTON
Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1664-2136 (43.8%) for -196.77 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, MIAMI, NY YANKEES, SEATTLE, SAN FRANCISCO
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3486-3063 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -474.49 units and a ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO, CHICAGO CUBS, PITTSBURGH, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, NY METS, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 996-853 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +25.18 units for backers and an ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-118 vs. CIN), TAMPA BAY (-130 vs. NYY)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 311-159 (66.2%) for +37.61 units and an ROI of 8%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 vs. AZ), BOSTON (-340 vs. CWS)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 113-98 outright (+4.66 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+110 at DET)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 195-196 run (+26.55 units, ROI: 6.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+114 vs. WSH), KANSAS CITY (+110 at DET), TAMPA BAY (-130 vs. NYY)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 157-174 (+4.91 units, ROI: 1.5%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+114 vs. WSH), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+270 at BOS)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 96-105 (-47.37 units, ROI: -23.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+110 at TB)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +270 (+65 diff), MINNESOTA +170 (+35), MIAMI +180 (+30), CLEVELAND +145 (+28), NY YANKEES +110 (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -125 (+24 diff), NY METS -175 (+19)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-TB OVER 9 (+0.8), SF-LAA OVER 8.5 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIA-PHI UNDER 10.5 (-1.6), CWS-BOS UNDER 9 (-1.1), CLE-PIT UNDER 8 (-0.9), CIN-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.9), STL-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.
(951) MIAMI (8-11) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (12-8)
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 19-7 (+7.39 units) as a home favorite of -130 or higher in the last five seasons
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs. MIA)
(959) KANSAS CITY (8-13) at (960) DETROIT (12-8)
Trend: Seth Lugo is 6-15 (-10.82 units) on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
Trend Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (+110 at DET)
(961) SEATTLE (10-10) at (962) TORONTO (12-8)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 26-6 (+16.84 units) in home day games in the last six seasons
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO (+105 vs. SEA)
(971) LOS ANGELES-NL (15-6) at (972) TEXAS (12-8)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 24-9 (+14.88 units) in the last 33 day game starts
Trend Match: PLAY TEXAS (-112 vs. LAD)
(975) ATHLETICS (9-11) at (976) MILWAUKEE (11-9)
Trend: Luis Severino is 8-25 (-15.31 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match: FADE ATHLETICS (+105 at MIL)
(979) SAN FRANCISCO (13-7) at (980) LOS ANGELES-AL (10-9)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 4-16 (-11.55 units)
Trend Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+114 vs. SF)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #3: Arizona at Chicago Cubs, Fri 4/18-Sun 4/20
Trend: UNDERDOGS are 16-8 (66.7%, +9.92 units) in the last 24 of the head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 41.3%.
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-105 at CHC)
Series #27: Chicago White Sox at Boston, Fri 4/18-Mon 4/21
Trend: Under the total is 10-3 (76.9%, +6.62 units) in the last 13 games of CWS-BOS in Boston (total runs in these games are at 6.9 RPG)
– The ROI on this trend is 50.9%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-BOS (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, April 21)
