The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, March 29, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Max Fried is 18-3 (+13.10 units) vs NL Central in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-166 vs. MIL) 

Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 83-97 (-50.42 units, ROI: -28%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-205 vs. DET)

Trend: Griffin Canning is 1-11 (-11.07 units) on the road in the +105 to -130 line range in the last six years
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+105 at HOU) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for 8.01 units. The ROI on this angle is at +2.3% ROI. So far in the ’25 season, they are 1-0 for +1.00 unit.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-205 vs. COL), LA DODGERS (-218 vs. DET)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in the 2025 season, this system is 1-0 for +1.00 unit.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-205 vs. COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. So far in the 2025 season, they are 5-4 for +1.40 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+105 at CIN), BALTIMORE (+110 at TOR), CLEVELAND (+102 at KC), NY METS (+105 at HOU)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. So far in the ’25 season, they are 5-4 for +1.40 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+105 at CIN), BALTIMORE (+110 at TOR), CLEVELAND (+102 at KC), NY METS (+105 at HOU) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle.
System Match (FADE): 2-games – SAN DIEGO (+120 vs. ATL) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in ‘23, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This is a massive one-year swing for this system in 2024, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. We will give it a chance in 2025 but monitor it closely. So far in the 2025 season, this system is 1-0 for +1.00 unit.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-218 vs. DET)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going for an ROI of about +17%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET, watch for NY YANKEES vs MIL

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gotten an ROI of 1.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors are looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of two full baseball seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO, HOUSTON, ARIZONA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going for an ROI of about -11%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY, NY METS, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of the 2023 season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they had an atrocious ROI of -27%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, KANSAS CITY 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 369-352 (51.2%) for +25.98 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.6%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-162 vs ATH) 

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1626-2077 (43.9%) for -176.95 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, LA ANGELS, COLORADO, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, CHICAGO CUBS 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3417-3014 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -482.21 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, ST LOUIS, TORONTO, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS

Home teams hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 967-839 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +11.84 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-162 vs. ATH), HOUSTON (-125 vs. NYM)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 497-421 (54.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.26 units, for a ROI of 2.1%.

System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-125 vs NYM)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the ’23 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 83-97 (-50.42 units, ROI: -28%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-205 vs DET)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +102 (+28 diff), SAN DIEGO +120 (+28 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +140 (+29 diff), BALTIMORE +110 (+20 diff), MILWAUKEE +166 (+15 diff), COLORADO +170 (+25 diff), DETROIT +190 (+25 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-CIN OVER 8.5 (+0.5), ATH-SEA OVER 7 (+0.6), MIN-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.5), NYM-HOU OVER 8.5 (+0.6) 

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.

(903) SAN FRANCISCO (1-0) at (904) CINCINNATI (0-1)
Trend: CIN is 14-8 (+7.49 units) vs. winning teams with starter Nick Lodolo
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-125 vs. SF) 

(913) BALTIMORE (1-1) at (914) TORONTO (1-1)
Trend: BAL is 14-3 (+12.26 units) in the last two seasons in Divisional Games with starter Dean Kremer
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+110 at TOR)

Trend: Max Scherzer is 21-5 (+12.40 units) in the last 26 day games starts
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-130 vs. BAL) 

(917) BOSTON (1-1) at (918) TEXAS (1-1)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 11-2 vs AL teams (+7.88 units) since 2019
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-105 at TEX) 

(921) MILWAUKEE (0-1) at (922) NEW YORK-AL (1-0)
Trend: Nestor Cortes is 9-3 (+7.74 units) as an underdog in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+140 at NYY)

Trend: Max Fried is 18-3 (+13.10 units) vs NL Central in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-166 vs. MIL)

(923) MINNESOTA (0-1) at (924) ST LOUIS (1-0)
Trend: MIN is 12-3 (+7.76 units) in the last three years in starter Joe Ryan’s first five starts of the season
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-125 at STL)

Trend: Erick Fedde is 17-8 (+9.40 units) in the -115 to +110 line range
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+105 vs MIN) 

(927) NEW YORK-NL (1-1) at (928) HOUSTON (1-1)
Trend: Griffin Canning is 1-11 (-11.07 units) on the ROAD in the +105 to -130 line range in L6 years
System Match: FADE NY METS (+105 at HOU)

Series #3: Chicago Cubs at Arizona, Thu 3/27-Sun 3/30
Trend: Underdogs are 14-7 (66.7%, +8.90 units) in the last 21 of the head-to-head series
–  The ROI on this trend is 42.4%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+102 at AZ)

Series #29: Boston at Texas, Thu 3/27-Sun 3/30
Trend: Home teams are 18-10 (64.3%, +5.03 units) since 2021 in TEX-BOS h2h series
– The ROI on this trend is 18%
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-115 vs. BOS)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES YET THIS SEASON

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