The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, April 20, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: MIN is 19-3 (+13.58 units) vs teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+100 at ATL) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 275-305 but for +74.95 units and a ROI of 12.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+180 at DET), ATHLETICS (+105 at MIL), ARIZONA (+110 at CHC) 

* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 313-159 (66.3%) for +39.61 units and a ROI of 8.4%!
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-180 vs. CIN)

Trend: Under the total is 11-3 (78.6%, +7.64 units) in last 14 games of CWS-BOS in Boston (total runs in these games are at 6.9 RPG)
– The ROI on this trend is 54.6%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-BOS (o/u at 9.5)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a great start, 17-2 for +12.90 units, a ROI of 67.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-340 vs. MIA), BOSTON (-298 vs. CWS), DETROIT (-218 vs. KC) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25, but the start has been slow, 38-65 for -22.29 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+110 at CHC), TORONTO (+100 vs. SEA), CLEVELAND (+102 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (+105 at HOU), COLORADO GAME 1 (-105 vs. WSH), COLORADO GAME 2 (-102 vs. WSH)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 33-59 for -24.60 units. I believe part of this is a reaction to several highly rated bullpens out of the gate faltering and vice versa.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+110 at CHC), TORONTO (+100 vs. SEA), CLEVELAND (+102 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (+105 at HOU), COLORADO GAME 1 (-105 vs. WSH), COLORADO GAME 2 (-102 vs. WSH) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 23-23 for +1.59 units, but they did drop -9.44 units over the last week and a half. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (14-12, +2.22 units) are uncharacteristic but are heading negative over the last 15 days or so.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CHICAGO CUBS (-130 vs. AZ), HOUSTON (-125 vs. SD)
*watch for WASHINGTON GAME 2 at COL (if they win GAME 1) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks  In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 27-22 for +1.20 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-340 vs. MIA), NY METS (-142 vs. STL), BOSTON (-298 vs. CWS), DETROIT (-218 vs. KC) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, off a very strong week, it is showing out well, 15-8 for +5.58 units, an ROI of 24.3%.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO GAME 1 (-105 vs. WSH) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and a ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and a ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and a ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, PITTSBURGH, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, LA ANGELS, SAN DIEGO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, PITTSBURGH 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up and down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in MARCH/APRIL of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS, WASHINGTON GAME 1, SAN DIEGO, WASHINGTON GAME 2

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 308-319 but for +39.20 units and a ROI of 6.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+270 at PHI), ST LOUIS (+120 at NYM), KANSAS CITY (+180 at DET), COLORADO GAME 1 (-105 vs. WSH) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 521-701 but for +12.20 units and a ROI of 1.0% over the lsat three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+150 at BAL), KANSAS CITY (+180 at DET), ST LOUIS (+120 at NYM), ATHLETICS (+105 at MIL), ARIZONA (+110 at CHC), SAN DIEGO (+105 at HOU) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 275-305 but for +74.95 units and a ROI of 12.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+180 at DET), ATHLETICS (+105 at MIL), ARIZONA (+110 at CHC)
*watch for MINNESOTA at ATL, +100 currently

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 128-48 but for +20.17 units and a ROI of 11.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-340 vs. MIA), DETROIT (-218 vs. KC) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 489-551 record but for +53.09 units and an ROI of 5.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+180 at DET), ARIZONA (+110 at CHC), ST LOUIS (+120 at NYM), LA DODGERS (-155 at TEX), SAN DIEGO (+105 at HOU), MINNESOTA (+100 at ATL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1714-1637 (51.1%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -243.61 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, WASHINGTON, COLORADO 

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1667-2138 (43.8%) for -195.77 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, ARIZONA, ST LOUIS, SAN DIEGO 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3493-3066 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -471.44 units and a ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, COLORADO 

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 998-853 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +27.18 units for backers and an ROI of 1.5%.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-125 vs. ATH)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 313-159 (66.3%) for +39.61 units and a ROI of 8.4%!
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-180 vs CIN)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 55-124 skid (-41.14 units, ROI: -23%).
System Match (FADE): COLORADO GAME 1 (-105 vs. WSH)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 70-153 (-62.04 units, ROI: -27.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO GAME 1 (-105 vs. WSH) 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 196-198 run (+25.55 units, ROI: 6.5%).
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+180 at DET) 

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 157-176 (+2.91 units, ROI: 0.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+235 at BOS), COLORADO GAME 1 (-105 vs WSH) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +270 (+75 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +240 (+45), CINCINNATI +154 (+18), WASHINGTON GAME 1 -105 (+16), KANSAS CITY +180 (+15) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NY METS -142 (+16 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: AZ-CHC OVER 7 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-DET UNDER 7 (-0.9), LAD-TEX UNDER 9 (-0.8), CWS-BOS UNDER 9.5 (-0.8)

Pitcher Situational MLB Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.

(901) MIAMI (8-12) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (13-8)
Trend: Jesus Luzardo is 11-3 (+5.55 units) at home as a -150 or higher favorite
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-340 vs. MIA) 

(903) ST LOUIS (9-12) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (14-7)
Trend: Sonny Gray is 10-2 (+8.90 units) as a road underdog between line range +105 to +115 in the last six seasons
Trend Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (*if they fall into this line range, +120 currently)

(915) NEW YORK-AL (13-8) at (916) TAMPA BAY (9-12)
Trend: Max Fried is 21-8 (+10.45 units) in road game starts in the last two seasons
Trend Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-155 at TB) 

(919) CLEVELAND (11-9) at (920) PITTSBURGH (8-14)
Trend: CLE is 15-6 (+9.35 units) in the -120 to +125 line range with starter Logan Allen in the last two seasons
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-102 at PIT) 

(921) MINNESOTA (7-14) at (922) ATLANTA (7-13)
Trend: MIN is 19-3 (+13.58 units) vs teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (+100 at ATL)

Series #3: Arizona at Chicago Cubs, Fri 4/18-Sun 4/20
Trend: Underdogs are 16-9 (64%, +8.92 units) in the last 25 of the head-to-head series
–  The ROI on this trend is 35.7%.
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+110 at CHC) 

Series #27: Chicago White Sox at Boston, Fri 4/18-Mon 4/21
Trend: Under the total is 11-3 (78.6%, +7.64 units) in the last 14 games of CWS-BOS in Boston (total runs in these games are at 6.9 RPG)
– The ROI on this trend is 54.6%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-BOS (o/u at 9.5)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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