Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, April 27, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: PHI is 10-26 (-14.84 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+100 at CHC)
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 314-160 (66.2%) for +38.63 units and a ROI of 8.1%!
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-148 vs. MIA)
Trend: CLE is 16-6 (+10.40 units) in the -120 to +125 line range with starter Logan Allen in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-108 vs. BOS)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 313-322 but for +44.32 units and a ROI of 7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at STL), COLORADO (+110 vs. CIN), ARIZONA (-105 vs. ATL), SAN DIEGO (-120 vs. TB)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trends and systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams are off to an uncustomary good start, 20-5 for +7.83 units. However, at this point, we are still just a few highly priced losses from going negative.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES GAME 1 (-198 vs. TOR)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a good start, 25-7 for +7.82 units, a ROI of 24.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-355 vs. PIT), DETROIT (-230 vs. BAL), ATHLETICS (-205 vs. CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 and ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are barely positive, 18-7 for +1.76 units. However, they did lose -6.68 units over the last week and a half, a good sign that the system is returning to its usual pattern.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES GAME 1 (-198 vs. TOR), ATHLETICS (-205 vs. CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 58-83 for -15.71 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at STL), CLEVELAND (-108 vs. BOS)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full ’24 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 50-75 for -20.62 units. This is definitely a stain on an overall great start for my bullpen ratings.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at STL), CLEVELAND (-108 vs. BOS)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 27-31 for -3.57 units (ROI -6.2%), and have dropped -14.60 units over the last two and a half weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (19-13, +6.71 units) are uncharacteristic.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ST LOUIS (-112 vs MIL)
3+ games – KANSAS CITY (+124 vs HOU), TAMPA BAY (+100 at SD)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and so far it is 32-26 for -5.64 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-130 at COL), ATLANTA (-115 at AZ), DETROIT (-230 vs. BAL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a reasonable start, 24-16 for +3.99 units, an ROI of 10%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at STL), SAN DIEGO (-120 vs. TB)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES GAME 1
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and a ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): BOSTON, ARIZONA, CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and a ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, BOSTON, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and a ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-ATH
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 313-322 but for +44.32 units and a ROI of 7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at STL), COLORADO (+110 vs. CIN), ARIZONA (-105 vs. ATL), SAN DIEGO (-120 vs. TB)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 529-709 but for +15.54 units and a ROI of 1.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+170 at DET), LA ANGELS (+150 at MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+180 at ATH), TEXAS (+114 at SF), MIAMI (+124 at SEA), TORONTO GAME 2 (+136 at NYY)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 279-310 but for +75.55 units and an ROI of 12.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+170 at DET), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+180 at ATH), TEXAS (+114 at SF), TORONTO GAME 2 (+136 at NYY)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 497-558 record, but for +55.34 units and an ROI of 5.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+150 at MIN), TEXAS (+114 at SF), BALTIMORE (+170 at DET), HOUSTON (-142 at KC), MIAMI (+124 at SEA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 377-356 (51.4%) for +27.90 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.8%.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-218 vs. CWS)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1719-1646 (51.1%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -249.46 units. This represents an ROI of -7.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+100 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+180 at ATH), SEATTLE (-148 vs. MIA)
Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1678-2155 (43.8%) for -200.50 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS, TEXAS, NY METS, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, MIAMI
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3511-3087 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -486.88 units and a ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, ST LOUIS, DETROIT, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1004-855 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +30.48 units for backers and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+120 vs. HOU)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 515-429 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.67 units, for an ROI of 2.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+124 vs. NYM), CHICAGO CUBS (-120 vs PHI)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 314-160 (66.2%) for +38.63 units and an ROI of 8.1%!
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-148 vs. MIA)
*watch for ARIZONA vs. ATL, -105 currently
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 116-101 outright (+5.08 units, ROI: 2.3%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-108 at STL)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 161-181 (+3.23 units, ROI: 0.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+110 vs. CIN), ARIZONA (-105 vs. ATL)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 137-108 (+11.48 units, ROI: 4.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+120 vs. HOU)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 187-130 in their last 317 tries (+15.34 units, ROI: 4.8%).
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+120 vs. HOU)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH +280 (+90 diff), BALTIMORE +190 (+37), LA ANGELS +150 (+23), TORONTO GAME 1 (+19)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-CLE OVER 7.5 (+1.0), PHI-CHC OVER 8.5 (+0.7), MIA-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.6), LAA-MIN OVER 7.5 (+0.5), TEX-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-SD UNDER 8.5 (-1.0), ATL-AZ UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), CWS-ATH UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.
(953) MILWAUKEE (13-15) at (954) ST LOUIS (12-15)
Trend: Erick Fedde is 18-11 (+7.30 units) in the -115 to +110 line range in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-112 vs MIL)
(955) CINCINNATI (14-13) at (956) COLORADO (4-22)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is just 12-15 (-6.53 units) vs teams with a losing record
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-130 at COL)
(957) PITTSBURGH (11-17) at (958) LOS ANGELES-NL (17-10)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 37-10 (+12.27 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last six seasons (including 23-6 (+6.34 units) in home starts)
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-355 vs PIT)
(959) ATLANTA (12-14) at (960) ARIZONA (14-13)
Trend: AZ is 15-6 (+8.64 units) in day games with start by Brandon Pfaadt in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-105 vs ATL)
(961) PHILADELPHIA (14-13) at (962) CHICAGO-NL (17-11)
Trend: PHI is 10-26 (-14.84 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+100 at CHC)
(963) TORONTO (13-13) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (15-11) (DH Game #1)
Trend: TOR is 9-13 (-9.94 units) vs AL East foes last two seasons with Kevin Gausman
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO GAME 1 (+164 at NYY)
(965) BOSTON (15-14) at (966) CLEVELAND (15-11)
Trend: CLE is 16-6 (+10.40 units) in the -120 to +125 line range with starter Logan Allen in the last two 2+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-108 vs. BOS)
(981) TORONTO (13-13) at (982) NEW YORK-AL (15-11) (DH Game #2)
Trend: NYY is 8-12 (-5.63 units) vs. AL East teams with starter Clarke Schmidt in career
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES GAME 2 (-162 vs. TOR)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Fri 4/25-Sun 4/27
Trend: Favorites are just 22-35 (38.6%, -27.39 units) in the last 57 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -48.1%
Trend Matches: FADE NY YANKEES IN BOTH GAMES
Series #24: Baltimore at Detroit, Fri 4/25-Sun 4/27
Trend: Favorites are 17-8 (72.7%, +5.31 units) in the last 25 games in the BAL-DET head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 21.2%
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DETROIT (-218 vs. BAL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
