The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, April 6, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 268-292 but for +79.11 units and an ROI of 14.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+102 at SF)

Trend: Andrew Heaney is 20-34 (-16.69 units) vs teams with a >53% win pct in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+140 vs NYY)

Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! So far in the 2025 season, this system is 6-3 for +1.82 units.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-115 at TEX)

Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 191-190 run (+29.01 units, ROI: 7.6%).
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (-118 vs. ATH)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for 8.01 units. The ROI on this angle is at +2.3% ROI. So far in the 2025 season, they are 7-1 for +5.02 units.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-192 vs CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in the 2025 season, this system is 7-3 for +0.46 units.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-192 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25. So far in the ’25 season, they are 13-22 for -7.92 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+114 at CHC), BALTIMORE (-110 at KC), ATHLETICS (-102 at COL), ST LOUIS GAME 1 (+102 at BOS), ST LOUIS GAME 2 (+102 at BOS)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full ’24 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. So far in the 2025 season, they are 12-19 for -6.37 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+114 at CHC), BALTIMORE (-110 at KC), ATHLETICS (-102 at COL), ST LOUIS GAME 1 (+102 at BOS), ST LOUIS GAME 2 (+102 at BOS)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6% (in the ’25 season, they are 7-3 for +4.65 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units, an ROI of -7.2% (in the ’25 season, they are 8-4 for +4.26 units). This has been a very consistent angle.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – CHICAGO CUBS (-135 vs SD), TEXAS (-105 vs TB), BOSTON GAME 1 (-122 vs STL)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This is a massive one-year swing for this system in 2024, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. We will give it a chance in 2025, but monitor it closely. So far in the 2025 season, this system is 10-7 for +1.93 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-166 at PIT), NY METS (-148 vs. TOR), SAN FRANCISCO (-122 vs. SEA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! So far in the 2025 season, this system is 6-3 for +1.82 units.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-115 at TEX)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gotten an ROI of 1.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors are looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of two full baseball seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, CHICAGO CUBS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going for an ROI of about -11%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, BOSTON GAME 1, NY METS, COLORADO, SAN FRANCISCO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority of handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins for the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they had an atrocious ROI of -27%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, COLORADO

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 302-309 but for +43.46 units and an ROI of 7.1% over the L3 seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TAMPA BAY, COLORADO

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 509-664 but for +34.78 units and an ROI of 2.9% over the L3 seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, CINCINNATI, SAN DIEGO, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, HOUSTON, TORONTO, SEATTLE, ST LOUIS GAME 2

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 268-292 but for +79.11 units and a ROI of 14.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+102 at SF)

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 122-47 but for +16.35 units and an ROI of 9.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-225 vs. CWS)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 475-522 record but for +69 units and an ROI of 6.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO, ARIZONA, TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, SEATTLE

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 370-354 (51.1%) for +24.18 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.3%.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-110 vs BAL)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1703-1614 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -228.00 units. This represents an ROI of -6.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, ST LOUIS, BOSTON, CINCINNATI, LA ANGELS

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1644-2102 (43.9%) for -183.07 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO, TORONTO, SEATTLE

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3446-3029 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -472.31 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON GAME 1, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, CHICAGO CUBS, TEXAS, MILWAUKEE, LA ANGELS

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 974-846 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +10.49 units for backers and an ROI of 0.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-105 vs. TB), PHILADELPHIA (+110 vs. LAD), PITTSBURGH (+140 vs. NYY)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 502-424 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.66 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+110 vs. LAD)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 309-157 (66.3%) for +38.48 units and an ROI of 8.3%!
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (*if they become favorites vs CLE, -105 currently)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the ’23 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 191-190 run (+29.01 units, ROI: 7.6%).
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (-118 vs ATH)

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 202-113 (+2.38 units, ROI: 0.8%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-122 vs. SEA), CHICAGO CUBS (-142 vs. SD)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 186-124 in their last 310 tries (+21.36 units, ROI: 6.9%).
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-142 vs. SD)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 91-100 (-45.85 units, ROI: -24%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-142 vs. SD), SAN FRANCISCO (-122 vs. SEA)
*watch for BOSTON in game 2 of the doubleheader if they win and score five runs in game 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH +140 (+26 diff), TEXAS -105 (+19), LA ANGELS -105 (+19), ATHLETICS -102 (+17), SAN DIEGO +114 (+16)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BOSTON GAME 2 -122 (+19 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-PHI OVER 7 (+1.5), AZ-WSH OVER 7.5 (+0.7), TOR-NYM OVER 7 (+0.7), MIA-ATL OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-PIT UNDER 9 (-0.8), CIN-MIL UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.

(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (9-1) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (6-2)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 12-2 (+6.50 units) vs NL East teams in the last six seasons
Trend Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-130 at PHI)

Trend: Tyler Glasnow is just 5-10 (-8.35 units) as a short ROAD favorite (in line range of -115 to -140) in the last six seasons
Trend Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-130 at PHI)

Trend: PHI is 11-17 (-9.58 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+110 vs. LAD)

(921) NEW YORK-AL (6-2) at (922) PITTSBURGH (2-7)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 20-34 (-16.69 units) vs teams with a >53% win pct in the last six seasons
Trend Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+140 vs. NYY)

(927) SEATTLE (3-6) at (928) SAN FRANCISCO (7-1)
Trend: SEA is 7-1 (+5.58 units) in the last two seasons with Bryan Woo in day games
Trend Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+102 at SF)

Series #16: Cleveland at LA Angels, Fri 4/4-Sun 4/6
Trend: Home teams are 18-7 (72%, +10.33 units) in the last 25 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 41.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-105 vs. CLE)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAYFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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