The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, March 30, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: CLE is 20-4 (+16.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-105 at KC) 

– Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%!
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+102 at SD) 

Trend: Home teams are 19-10 (65.5%, +6.03 units) since 2021 in TEX-BOS head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 20.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-185 vs. BOS)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%!
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-205 vs COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in the ’25 season, this system is 1-1 for -0.98 units.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-205 vs. COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. So far in the ’25 season, they are 6-7 for -0.55 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+102 at SD), BALTIMORE (+110 at TOR), CLEVELAND (-105 at KC)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. So far in the 2025 season, they are 6-7 for -0.55 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+102 at SD), BALTIMORE (+110 at TOR), CLEVELAND (-105 at KC) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6% (in the 2025 season, they are 1-0 for +1.30 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ATHLETICS (+140 at SEA), ST LOUIS (+105 vs. MIN)
3-games – SAN DIEGO (-122 vs ATL) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%!
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+102 at SD)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gotten an ROI of 1.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors look for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of two full baseball seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND, SAN DIEGO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going for an ROI of about -11%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, MINNESOTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of the 2023 season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they had an atrocious ROI of -27%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, SEATTLE

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1695-1601 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -220.28 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA 

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1630-2079 (43.9%) for -174.29 units and an ROI of -4.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS, MINNESOTA, SAN FRANCISCO, COLORADO, ATLANTA

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3418-3018 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -485.76 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, ST LOUIS, TORONTO, WASHINGTON, MIAMI

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 968-840 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +11.04 units for backers and an ROI of 0.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-122 vs. ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+105 vs. LAA)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 498-421 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.26 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+105 vs. LAA) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 308-157 (66.2%) for +37.48 units and an ROI of 8.1%!
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-135 vs. MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 3/31)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON +154 (+34 diff), ATHLETICS +140 (+16 diff), COLORADO +170 (+25 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-CIN OVER 8 (+0.7), CLE-KC OVER 7 (+1.0), BOS-TEX OVER 8 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BAL-TOR UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years. 

(953) PITTSBURGH (1-2) at (954) MIAMI (2-1)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 20-33 (-15.69 units) vs teams with a >53% win pct in the last six seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-112 at MIA)

Trend: Andrew Heaney is 23-8 (+11.74 units) on the road for line range of -102 or higher in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-112 at MIA)

(965) CLEVELAND (1-1) at (966) KANSAS CITY (1-1)
Trend: CLE is 20-4 (+16.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee in last two seasons
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-105 at KC)

(969) ATHLETICS (2-1) at (970) SEATTLE (1-2)
Trend: ATH are 9-22 (-9.80 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last three years
System Match: FADE ATHLETICS (+140 at SEA)

Trend: SEA was 6-1 (+4.58 units) last season with starter Bryan Woo in DAY games
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-166 vs. ATH) 

(973) COLORADO (1-1) at (974) TAMPA BAY (1-1)
Trend: TB is just 4-8 (-5.35 units) vs NL teams with Taj Bradley in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-205 vs COL) 

(975) MINNESOTA (0-2) at (976) ST LOUIS (2-0)
Trend: MIN is 6-12 (-7.86 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-125 at STL)

Series #3: Chicago Cubs at Arizona, Thu 3/27-Sun 3/30
Trend: UNDERDOGS are 15-7 (68.2%, +9.92 units) in the last 22 of head-to-head series
–  The ROI on this trend is 45.1%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at AZ)

Series #29: Boston at Texas, Thu 3/27-Sun 3/30
Trend: Home teams are 19-10 (65.5%, +6.03 units) since 2021 in the TEX-BOS head-to-head series
–  The ROI on this trend is 20.8%
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-185 vs. BOS)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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