The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, May 4, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: SF is 14-3 (+9.20 units) at HOME as a favorite vs Divisional opponents with starter Logan Webb in L6 seasons

System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-380 vs COL)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a VERY good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 279-316 but for +69.55 units and a ROI of 11.7% over the L3 seasons

System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+110 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (+154 at NYY), KANSAS CITY (+110 at BAL), MINNESOTA (+164 at BOS)

Trend: CLE is 24-5 (+19.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee in L2+ seasons

System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-102 at TOR)

* Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 290-251 (53.6%) for +29.43 units and a R.O.I. of 5.4% since the start of the 2018 season.

System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS GAME 1 (+105 vs NYM)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A ’23 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The R.O.I. on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a VERY strong start, 35-11 for +7.82 units, a ROI of 17%.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-380 vs COL), HOUSTON (-198 at CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25, but the start has been bad, 68-102 for -23.69 units.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+102 at PIT), ARIZONA (+124 at PHI), MINNESOTA (+164 at BOS), CLEVELAND (-102 at TOR)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick em’s) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full ’24 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For ’25, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 60-90 for -24.80 units. This is definitely a disappointment early in the season but it can still be made up.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+102 at PIT), ARIZONA (+124 at PHI), CLEVELAND (-102 at TOR)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks.
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a R.O.I. of -8.6%. For this year, they are 35-38 for -1.85 units (ROI -2.5%), but have dropped -12.88 units over the last three-and-a-half weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The R.O.I. on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle so this year’s results (24-18, +6.25 units) are uncharacteristic.

System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs AZ)

3+ games – SEATTLE (+150 at TEX)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in ‘23, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in ’25 and so far it is 41-36 for -10.25 units. It seems that there have been fewer than normal streaks reaching into the 4-game and more range so far this season.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+102 at PIT), LA DODGERS (-135 at ATL)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The R.O.I. during that span has been 10.3%! For ’25, it is off to a good start, 30-19 for +7.13 units, a ROI of 14.6%.

System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-180 vs SEA)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the HANDLE was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 UNITS and a ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.

System Match (PLAY): BOSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority BETS groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not TOO MANY of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 UNITS and a ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettors afloat considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.

System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): BALTIMORE, CLEVELAND

 DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority HANDLE bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge HOME FAVORITES of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 UNITS and a ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so consider that when backing.

System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority HANDLE bettors have been at their worst overall in INTERLEAGUE GAMES since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 UNITS and a ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.

System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority HANDLE betting groups backed HOME FAVORITES with LESS WINS on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.

System Match (FADE): TEXAS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority HANDLE bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:

1. Majority HANDLE bettors in MAY games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units & a ROI of -12.5%

System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for UNDER the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and a ROI of +7.3%!

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TB-NYY, DET-LAA

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 318-326 but for +47.43 units and a ROI of 7.4% over the L3 seasons

System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-122 vs SD), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs CHC), ATLANTA (+120 vs LAD), TEXAS (-180 vs SEA)

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 534-716 but for +14.95 units and a ROI of 1.2% over the L3 seasons

System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+102 at PIT), ARIZONA (+110 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (+154 at NYY), KANSAS CITY (+110 at BAL), MINNESOTA (+164 at BOS), SEATTLE (+150 at TEX)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a VERY good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 279-316 but for +69.55 units and a ROI of 11.7% over the L3 seasons

System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+110 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (+154 at NYY), KANSAS CITY (+110 at BAL), MINNESOTA (+164 at BOS)

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 128-52 but for +10.62 units and a ROI of 6.9% over the L3 seasons

System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-185 vs TB), SAN FRANCISCO (-380 vs COL), TEXAS (-180 vs SEA)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 501-566 record but for +51.59 units and a ROI of 4.8% over the L3 seasons.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+300 at SF), ARIZONA (+110 at PHI), DETROIT (-170 at LAA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game. 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 384-358 (51.8%) for +34.00 units of profit. This represents a R.O.I. of 4.6%.

System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+120 vs LAD)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1733-1654 (51.1%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -245.96 units. This represents a R.O.I. of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.

System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS GAME 1, MIAMI, LA DODGERS, WASHINGTON

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1690-2170 (43.8%) for -200.52 units and a R.O.I. of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.

System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, ARIZONA, SEATTLE, DETROIT

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3532-3098 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -479.50 units and a R.O.I. of -7.2%.

System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, LA ANGELS

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1007-867 (53.8%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +20.96 units for backers and a R.O.I. of 1.2%.

System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+100 vs CHC)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 519-438 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.12 units, for a R.O.I. of 2.2%.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TEXAS, PITTSBURGH

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 290-251 (53.6%) for +29.43 units and a R.O.I. of 5.4% since the start of the 2018 season.

System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS GAME 1 (+105 vs NYM)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of 5-games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 189-132 in their last 321 tries (+14.92 units, ROI: 4.6%).

System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-142 at ATL)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 23-55 (-11.71 units, ROI: -15%) in their L78 tries.

System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+150 at TEX)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 102-107 (-43.65 units, ROI: -20.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.

System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-142 at ATL), SEATTLE (+150 at TEX)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +300 (+80 diff), SAN DIEGO +102 (+25), TAMPA BAY +145 (+21), CLEVELAND -102 (+15)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LA DODGERS -135 (+30 diff), CINCINNATI -115 (+19), HOUSTON -198 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-STL GAME 2 OVER 7.5 (+0.8), CHC-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-PIT UNDER 9 (-1.3), ATH-MIA UNDER 9 (-0.8), HOU-CWS UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), SEA-TEX UNDER 8.5 (-0.7) 

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years. 

(901) SAN DIEGO (21-11) at (902) PITTSBURGH (12-22)

Trend: Andrew Heaney is 21-35 (-16.27 units) vs teams with a >53% win pct in L6 seasons

System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-122 vs SD)

(905) CHICAGO-NL (21-13) at (906) MILWAUKEE (16-18)

Trend: MIL is 12-5 (+5.12 units) vs Chicago Cubs or White Sox with starter Freddy Peralta in L6 seasons

System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+100 vs CHC)

(907) NEW YORK-NL (22-11) at (908) ST LOUIS (14-19)  (DH Game #1)

Trend: Erick Fedde is 18-12 (+6.18 units) in the -115 to +110 line range

System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS GAME 1 (+105 vs NYM)

(909) COLORADO (6-27) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (21-13)

Trend: SF is 14-3 (+9.20 units) at HOME as a favorite vs Divisional opponents with starter Logan Webb in L6 seasons

System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-380 vs COL)

(921) CLEVELAND (19-14) at (922) TORONTO (16-17)

Trend: CLE is 24-5 (+19.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee in L2+ seasons

System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-102 at TOR)

(929) ATHLETICS (18-16) at (930) MIAMI (13-19)

Trend: ATH is 10-23 (-9.80 units) in DAY game starts by JP Sears in L3 years

System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-125 at MIA)

Trend: MIA is 14-10 (+5.92 units) as shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in L4 seasons.

System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+105 vs ATH)

Series #26: Colorado at San Francisco, Thu 5/1-Sun 5/4
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 21-4 (84%) surge hosting Colorado, netting +11.15 units.

The R.O.I. on this trend is 44%

Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-380 vs COL) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, May 5)

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