The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, April 17, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

Top MLB Resources:

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 275-304 but for +75.95 units and a ROI of 13.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+124 at TEX)

Trend: CLE is 22-4 (+18.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-115 at BAL) 

* Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 94-104 (-48.25 units, ROI: -24.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): ARIZONA (-155 at MIA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 35-56 for -16.89 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+154 at PHI), NY YANKEES (-110 at TB), SEATTLE (+110 at CIN) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full ’24 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For ’25, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 31-51 for -18.75 units. I believe part of this is a reaction to several highly rated bullpens out of the gate faltering and vice versa.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-110 at TB), SEATTLE (+110 at CIN) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and so far it is 22-17 for +1.67 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-155 at MIA), NY YANKEES (-110 at TB) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and a ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and a ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and an ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, ATHLETICS, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 336-257 for +44.78 units and a ROI of 7.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-110 at TB) 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 308-317 but for +41.20 units and an ROI of 6.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs. ATH), LA ANGELS (+124 at TEX

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 167-102 for +41.54 units and a ROI of 15.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (*if they fall into this line range, -110 currently) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 520-697 but for +15.10 units and an ROI of 1.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+114 at PIT), SAN FRANCISCO (+154 at PHI), LA ANGELS (+124 at TEX), SEATTLE (+114 at CIN) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 275-304 but for +75.95 units and a ROI of 13.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+124 at TEX) 

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 86-136 for -46.94 units and a ROI of -21.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (*if they fall into this line range, -110 currently) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 269-234 but for -62.23 units and a ROI of -12.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-135 vs. STL), DETROIT (-148 vs. KC) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 489-548 record but for +56.09 units and a ROI of 5.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+114 at PIT), CLEVELAND (-115 at BAL), LA ANGELS (+124 at TEX) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 375-356 (51.3%) for +25.90 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.5%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs. SF) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1710-1634 (51.1%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -245.06 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-105 vs. CLE), SAN FRANCISCO (+154 at PHI) 

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1663-2130 (43.8%) for -191.35 units and an ROI of -5.0% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+114 at PIT), CLEVELAND (-115 at BAL), LA ANGELS (+124 at TEX) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3481-3061 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -477.03 units and a ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-105 vs. CLE), PITTSBURGH (-135 vs. WSH)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 508-427 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +22.20 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-110 vs. NYY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 94-104 (-48.25 units, ROI: -24.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): ARIZONA (-155 at MIA)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO +154 (+24 diff), MIAMI +130 (+21), SEATTLE +110 (+17) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NY METS -135 (+18 diff)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: STL-NYM OVER 7.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-CIN UNDER 9 (-0.9), LAA-TEX UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), CLE-BAL UNDER 8.5 (-0.5) 

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years. 

(951) ARIZONA (11-7) at (952) MIAMI (8-9)
Trend: MIA is 13-9 (+5.92 units) as a shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI (+130 vs AZ)

Trend: MIA is 4-9 (-4.32 units) against teams with a >57% win pct with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
Trend Match: FADE MIAMI (+130 vs AZ)

(959) ATHLETICS (8-10) at (960) CHICAGO-AL (4-13)
Trend: ATH is 9-23 (-10.80 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in Lthe last three years
Trend Match: FADE ATHELTICS (-162 at CWS) 

(961) CLEVELAND (9-8) at (962) BALTIMORE (7-10)
Trend: CLE is 22-4 (+18.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-115 at BAL) 

(963) KANSAS CITY (8-11) at (964) DETROIT (10-8)
Trend: DET is 7-3 (+4.93 units) vs KC/MIN with starter Reese Olson
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT (-148 vs. KC) 

(969) SEATTLE (9-9) at (970) CINCINNATI (9-9)
Trend: Brady Singer is 16-5 (+11.94 units) in home day games in the last three seasons
Trend Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-135 vs. SEA)

Trend: Brady Singer is 8-9 (-5.78 units) as a favorite in -135 to -175 line range
Trend Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-135 vs. SEA)

Series #1: San Francisco at Philadelphia, Mon 4/14-Thu 4/17
Trend: Home teams are on a 16-4 (80%, +11.54 units) run in the Giants-Phillies National League series.
–  The ROI on this trend is 57.7%.
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs. SF) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, April 18)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR