The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, April 24, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Under the total is 15-1 (93.8%, +13.95 units) in the last 16 games between Washington and Baltimore
– The ROI on this trend is 87.2%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-WSH (o/u at 8.5) 

* MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1002-854 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +29.96 units for backers and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-148 vs. PIT) 

Trend: Over the total is 17-2 (89.5%, +14.85 units) since 2019 in SEA-BOS head-to-head games in Boston
– The ROI on this trend is 78.2%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-BOS (o/u at 8)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 495-555 record but for +55.86 units and an ROI of 5.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+120 at SF), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+190 at MIN), TEXAS (-148 at ATH), BALTIMORE (-105 at WSH) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams are off to an uncustomary good start, 18-3 for +11.06 units. However, at this point, we are still just a few highly priced losses from going negative.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-225 vs. CWS) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a decent start, 19-5 for +6.5 units, a ROI of 27.1%.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-270 vs. COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 and ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are unusually positive, 18-5 for +6.31 units. However, they did lose -2.13 units last week, a good sign that the system is turning back towards its usual pattern.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-225 vs CWS) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 53-78 for -16.33 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+154 at BOS), BALTIMORE (-105 at WSH), PITTSBURGH (+124 at LAA) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 46-70 for -19.74 units. This is definitely a stain on an overall great start for my bullpen ratings.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-105 at WSH), PITTSBURGH (+124 at LAA) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 25-30 for -4.56 units (ROI -8.3%), and have dropped -15.59 units over the last two and a half weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (16-12, +4.32 units) are uncharacteristic but are heading negative over the last two weeks.
System Match (FADE): 2-games – WASHINGTON (-115 vs. BAL) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a reasonable start, 21-14 for +2.94 units, an ROI of 8.4%.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-105 at WSH)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the ’23 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the’23 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the ’24 full season results, along with some notes about the early ’25 returns:

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY GAME 1 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and a ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): WASHINGTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and a ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY GAME 1 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY GAME 1, KANSAS CITY GAME 2, BALTIMORE, LA ANGELS, ARIZONA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and an ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, TEXAS

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 311-322 but for +41.42 units and a ROI of 6.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+190 at MIN), BALTIMORE (-105 at WSH) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 525-706 but for +12.94 units and a ROI of 1.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+120 at SF), SEATTLE (+154 at BOS), PITTSBURGH (+124 at LAA), TAMPA BAY (+114 at AZ), COLORADO GAME 2 (+164 at KC) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 278-309 but for +75.05 units and an ROI of 12.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+154 at BOS), COLORADO GAME 2 (+164 at KC)

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 128-50 but for +14.67 units and a ROI of 8.2% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-230 vs. CWS) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 495-555 record but for +55.86 units and a ROI of 5.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+120 at SF), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+190 at MIN), TEXAS (-148 at ATH), BALTIMORE (-105 at WSH)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1674-2149 (43.8%) for -199.54 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+120 at SF), TEXAS (-148 at ATH) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3506-3077 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -476.15 units and a ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-230 vs. CWS), BOSTON (-185 vs. SEA), ATHLETICS (+124 vs. TEX), ARIZONA (-135 vs. TB) 

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1002-854 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +29.96 units for backers and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-148 vs. PIT)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 513-428 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.15 units, for an ROI of 2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-142 vs. MIL) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO GAME 1 +220 (+40 diff), SEATTLE +154 (+24), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +185 (+16), BALTIMORE -105 (+16) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ARIZONA -135 (+18 diff) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MIL-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-KC GAME 1 UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), COL-KC GAME 2 UNDER 8.5 (-0.5) 

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.

(905) SEATTLE (13-11) at (906) BOSTON (14-12)
Trend: Seattle is 7-2 for +4.56 units in day game starts by Bryan Woo since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+154 at BOS) 

(911) BALTIMORE (9-14) at (912) WASHINGTON (11-13)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 6-12 (-8.77 units) in home games vs teams with losing records in last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-115 vs BAL) 

Series #2: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota, Tue 4/22-Thu 4/24
Trend: Favorites are on a 24-3 (88.9%, +18.46 units) run in the White Sox-Twins AL Central rivalry.
–   The ROI on this trend is 68.4%.
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-230 vs CWS) 

Series #20: Baltimore at Washington, Tue 4/22-Thu 4/24
Trend: Under the total is 15-1 (93.8%, +13.95 units) in the last 16 games between Washington and Baltimore
– The ROI on this trend is 87.2%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-WSH (o/u at 8.5) 

Series #28: Seattle at Boston, Tue 4/22-Thu 4/24
Trend: Over the total is 17-2 (89.5%, +14.85 units) since 2019 in SEA-BOS head-to-head games in Boston
– The ROI on this trend is 78.2%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-BOS (o/u at 8) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, April 25)

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