The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, June 12, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 174-104 for +31.89 units. This represents an ROI of +11.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-224 vs WSH), DETROIT (-194 at BAL), HOUSTON (-245 vs CWS) 

Trend: Over the total is on a 22-8-1 (73.3%, +13.13 units) run in the Pirates-Cubs head-to-head series since September 2022.
– The ROI on this trend is 43.8%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-CHC (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: Sonny Gray is 6-2 (+3.68 units) on the road vs. MIL since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-131 at MIL) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 297-332 but for +77.57 units and a ROI of 12.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+138 at MIN)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 480-403 for +3.97 units and an ROI of 0.7% so far in the regular season. We’re off a slight losing week, giving back -3.24 units of profit. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy, playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettor now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -52 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, NY METS, SAN FRANCISCO, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 69-89 for -22.90 units. This represents an ROI of -14.5%.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (+138 at MIN)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 174-104 for +31.89 units. This represents an ROI of +11.5%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-224 vs WSH), DETROIT (-194 at BAL), HOUSTON (-245 vs CWS)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 78-156 for -37.23 units. This represents an ROI of -15.9%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+181 at NYM), COLORADO (+179 vs SF) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 77-23 for +18.28 units, a ROI of 18.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-224 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (-221 at COL), DETROIT (-194 at BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (-207 vs. PIT), HOUSTON (-245 vs. CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 54-20 for +8.06 units. However, this system also remains just a few games away from going negative and has trended back to normalcy over the last few weeks.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-207 vs. PIT) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are well in the black again and riding a seven-week winning streak. For the season, the record is now 174-193 for +9.15 units, an ROI of 2.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+114 vs. STL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now 149-169 for -7.11 units after winning around four units over the last week-and-a-half.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+114 vs. STL) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 101-75 for +4.16 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-224 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (-221 at COL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): *NONE YET, BUT WATCH FOR NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS, HOUSTON* 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 342-352 but for +46.56 units and an ROI of 6.7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+207 at NYM), COLORADO (+178 vs. SF)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 184-129 for +26.24 units and an ROI of 8.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (*if they fall into this line range at MIL, -131 currently*) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 571-752 but for +25.37 units and an ROI of 1.9% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+138 at MIN)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 297-332 but for +77.57 units and a ROI of 12.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+138 at MIN) 

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 106-148 for -40.22 units and a ROI of -15.8% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+107 vs. STL)

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 135-53 but for +15.17 units and an ROI of 8.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-260 vs WSH) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 541-606 record, but for +54.41 units and a ROI of 5.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+138 at MIN), WASHINGTON (+207 at NYM), DETROIT (-186 at BAL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+213 at HOU)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1795-1714 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -255.94 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, SAN FRANCISCO 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1776-2262 (44%) for -199.66 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, ST LOUIS, DETROIT 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3640-3201 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -501.58 units and a ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, NY METS, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, COLORADO

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 223-220 run (+35.07 units, ROI: 7.9%).
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+186 at NYM) 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 158-120 (+19.15 units, ROI: 6.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-231 at COL) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE +114 (+32 diff), KANSAS CITY +128 (+15), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +196 (+15) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-NYM OVER 8 (+0.6), STL-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.6)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TEX-MIN UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(955) ST LOUIS (36-32) at (956) MILWAUKEE (36-33)
Trend: Sonny Gray is 6-2 (+3.68 units) on the road vs. MIL since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-131 at MIL) 

(957) PITTSBURGH (28-41) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (41-27)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 22-38 (-18.20 units) vs. teams with a >53% win pct in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+168 at CHC) 

(959) TEXAS (32-36) at (960) MINNESOTA (36-31)
Trend: Under the total is 17-5-1 (+11.50 units) in Rangers day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-MIN (o/u at 8.5) 

(961) DETROIT (44-25) at (962) BALTIMORE (27-39)
Trend: BAL is 31-13 (+14.88 units) in the last 2+ seasons in home games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+157 vs DET)

Trend: BAL is 4-14 (-13.62 units) vs. LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+157 vs. DET) 

(963) NEW YORK-AL (41-25) at (964) KANSAS CITY (34-34)
Trend: Under the total is 26-13-1 (+11.70 units) in Royals night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-KC (o/u at 9) 

Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Tue 6/10-Thu 6/12
Trend: Colorado is 8-31 (20.5%, -18.83 units) in their last 39 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -48.3%
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+185 vs SF) 

Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Thu 6/12-Sun 6/15
Trend: Over the total is on a 22-8-1 (73.3%, +13.13 units) run in the Pirates-Cubs head-to-head series since September 2022.
– The ROI on this trend is 43.8%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-CHC (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: Pittsburgh is 9-19 (32.1%, -7.49 units) in their last 28 games at Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -26.8%
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+168 at CHC) 

Series #24: Detroit at Baltimore, Tue 6/10-Thu 6/12
Trend: Favorites are 19-9 (67.9%, +6.00 units) in the last 28 games in BAL-DET head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 21.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-194 at BAL) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, June 13)

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