The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, March 27, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: SEA is 7-0 (+7.25 units) at HOME vs Athletics with Logan Gilbert in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-170 vs. ATH) 

Trend: Jose Berrios is 26-5 (+17.94 units) in HOME DAY games in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-112 vs. BAL)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full ’24 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-110 at CIN), BALTIMORE (-108 at TOR), TEXAS (-102 vs BOS), CLEVELAND (+114 at KC), NY METS (+110 at HOU)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 & ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (*if they become a -190 favorite or higher vs. DET, -185 currently*)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-110 at CIN), BALTIMORE (-108 at TOR), TEXAS (-102 vs BOS), CLEVELAND (+114 at KC), NY METS (+110 at HOU) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-110 at CIN), BALTIMORE (-108 at TOR), TEXAS (-102 vs BOS), CLEVELAND (+114 at KC), NY METS (+110 at HOU)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:00 a.m. ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gotten an ROI of 1.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors are looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of two full baseball seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI ML, NY METS ML 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going for an ROI of about -11%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES ML, NY METS ML, MINNESOTA ML, LA DODGERS ML 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams that did score well in the last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3413-3013 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -485.21 units and an ROI of -7.6%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-185 vs. DET)

MLB Streak Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +130 (+46 diff), SAN DIEGO +110 (+35 diff), BALTIMORE -108 (+19 diff), MILWAUKEE +130 (+15 diff), DETROIT +154 (+30 diff) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CINCINNATI -110 (+29 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-WSH OVER 7 (+1.1), PIT-MIA OVER 6.5 (+0.9), BOS-TEX OVER 7.5 (+1.1), CLE-KC OVER 7.5 (+0.5), ATH-SEA OVER 7 (+0.5), MIL-NYY OVER 7.5 (+0.8), NYM-HOU OVER 7.5 (+1.1), DET-LAD OVER 6.5 (+0.9)

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years. 

(901) PHILADELPHIA (0-0) at (902) WASHINGTON (0-0)
Trend: Zach Wheeler is only 11-9 (-2.85 units) vs Washington in L6 seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-175 at WSH)

Trend: PHI is 22-8 (+8.95 units) in L30 DAY game starts by Zach Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-175 at WSH)

Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 9-16 (-5.06 units) vs NL East opponents in his career
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+145 vs PHI) 

(911) BALTIMORE (0-0) at (912) TORONTO (0-0)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 18-8 (+7.23 units) vs AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-108 at TOR)

Trend: Zach Eflin is 19-6 (+11.66 units) in the last six seasons as a road pick’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (*if they fall into this line range)

Trend: Jose Berrios is 11-1 (+10.44 units) versus Baltimore in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-112 vs. BAL)

Trend: Jose Berrios is 26-5 (+17.94 units) in HOME DAY games in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-112 vs. BAL) 

(913) BOSTON (0-0) at (914) TEXAS (0-0)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 24-7 (+16.88 units) in the last 31 day game starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-102 vs. BOS) 

(915) CLEVELAND (0-0) at (916) KANSAS CITY (0-0)
Trend: CLE is 20-4 (+16.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee in last two years
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (*if they fall into this line range, +114 currently)

(919) ATHLETICS (0-0) at (920) SEATTLE (0-0)
Trend: Luis Severino is 8-21 (-11.31 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE ATHLETICS (+142 at SEA)

Trend: SEA is 7-0 (+7.25 units) at home vs Athletics with Logan Gilbert in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-170 vs. ATH) 

(925) MINNESOTA (0-0) at (926) ST LOUIS (0-0)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 16-4 (+11.05 units) in the short favorite line range of -118 to -130 in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-118 at STL)

Trend: Sonny Gray is 10-2 (+7.62 units) vs AL Central in day games in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-102 vs. MIN)

(927) DETROIT (0-0) at (928) LOS ANGELES-NL (2-0)
Trend: DET is 11-3 (+11.67 units) with starter Tarik Skubal against teams with a >60% win pct in career
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+154 at LAD)

Series #3: Chicago Cubs at Arizona, Thu 3/27-Sun 3/30
Trend: UNDERDOGS are 13-6 (68.4%, +8.88 units) in L19 of h2h series
–    The ROI on this trend is 46.7%.
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+110 at AZ) 

Series #29: Boston at Texas, Thu 3/27-Sun 3/30
Trend: HOME teams are 17-9 (65.4%, +5.03 units) since 2021 in TEX-BOS h2h series
– The ROI on this trend is 19.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-102 vs. BOS) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES YET

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