Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, May 29, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 389-368 (51.4%) for +29.77 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.9%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-122 vs. WSH)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 293-324 but for +80.19 units and a ROI of 13% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA GAME 2 (+105 at PHI)
Trend: Under the total is 20-10-3 (+9.00 units) in Rays night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-HOU (o/u at 8)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are riding a four-week winning streak, including 17-10 for +9.51 units last week. For the season, the record is now 134-156 for -2.09 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA GAME 1 (+136 at PHI), ATLANTA GAME 2 (+105 at PHI)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now 118-135 for -5.79 units after four straight winning weeks!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA GAME 1 (+136 at PHI), ATLANTA GAME 2 (+105 at PHI)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and so far it is 82-60 for +0.58 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-115 vs. TB)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a decent start, 48-35 for +5.68 units, an ROI of 6.8%.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA GAME 2 (*if they lose Game 1)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and a ROI of -12.5%
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA GAME 1, PHILADELPHIA GAME 2, TORONTO, HOUSTON, SEATTLE
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 363-276 for +50.68 units and an ROI of 7.9% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-115 vs. TB)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 562-738 but for +28.55 units and an ROI of 2.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA GAME 2 (+105 at PHI), WASHINGTON (+102 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 293-324 but for +80.19 units and a ROI of 13% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA GAME 2 (+105 at PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 289-253 but for -67.97 units and a ROI of -12.5% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-166 vs. ATH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 389-368 (51.4%) for +29.77 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.9%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-122 vs. WSH)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1777-1690 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -248.42 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+102 at SEA)
Rpad teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1747-2235 (43.9%) for -203.12 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA GAME 1 (+136 at PHI)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3609-3171 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -500.64 units and a ROI of -7.4%.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-115 vs. TB)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 529-447 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.60 units, for an ROI of 2.1%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-122 vs. WSH)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATLANTA GAME 1 +136 (+24 diff)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: WSH-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) ATLANTA (25-28) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (35-19) (DH Game #2)
Trend: ATL is 9-19 (-16.92 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA
(953) ATHLETICS (23-33) at (954) TORONTO (27-28)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 12-21 (-19.54 units) within the line range of -140 to -160 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (*if they fall into this line range, -166 currently)
(955) TAMPA BAY (28-27) at (956) HOUSTON (30-25)
Trend: Under the total is 20-10-3 (+9.00 units) in Rays night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-HOU (o/u at 8)
(957) WASHINGTON (25-30) at (958) SEATTLE (30-24)
Trend: WSH is 27-14 (+9.68 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-1.5 at SEA)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, May 30)
