The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, May 8, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Under the total is 10-2 (+7.80 units) in Rangers day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-BOS (o/u at 9.5) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 324-261 record for +62.53 units and an ROI of 10.7% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-155 at AZ) 

Trend: Chris Bassitt is 9-1 (+7.85 units) vs LAA in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-130 at LAA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 264-218 for +10.86 units and an ROI of 2.3% so far in the regular season. This is a solid early return for what has been a long-running strategy I have embraced, especially when you consider that the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down -26.60 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL):  LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA, TEXAS, KANSAS CITY, TORONTO, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT GAME 1 AND GAME 2 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 57-30 for +19.22 units, and an ROI of 22.1%! To ensure this wasn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-198 vs. CIN) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 28-6 for +13.65 units. This has to be slowly draining the sportsbooks, and I’d be surprised if it kept up.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-198 vs. CIN)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 40-11 for +12.99 units, an ROI of 25.5%.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-250 vs. CWS) 

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 33-11 for +6.75 units. However, this system remains just two or three highly-priced games away from going negative again.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-198 vs. CIN) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
 A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 82-113 for -18.04 units. However, we are up +3.15 units over the last week-and-a-half, so we will keep this system on the daily reports for now.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+130 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (+130 vs. PHI)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 72-98 for -19.34 units. This is still a disappointment early, but we were able to capture back +3.96 units over the last week-and-a-half.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+130 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (+130 vs. PHI) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 41-47 for -5.86 units (ROI -6.7%), and have dropped -16.89 units over the last four weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. After a slow start to this year, they are starting to fall back into place (22-23, -0.94 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – LA ANGELS (+110 vs. TOR), PHILADELPHIA (-155 at TB) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 50-39 for -3.31 units. It is nearing extinction level as it seems that fewer and fewer streaks are reaching the four-game level recently.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-166 vs. BAL), KANSAS CITY (-250 vs. CWS) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a fabulous start, 33-20 for +9.05 units, an ROI of 17.1%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-130 at LAA) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettor, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and a ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT GAME 1, DETROIT GAME 2 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY handle TEAMS THIS MONTH 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-BOS

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 322-328 but for +49.51 units and a ROI of 7.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+130 at MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at KC), TORONTO (-125 at LAA) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 539-719 but for +18.71 units and a ROI of 1.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+164 at ATL), BALTIMORE (+130 at MIN), TEXAS (+120 at BOS)

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 131-52 but for +13.62 units and a ROI of 7.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-258 vs. CWS) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 324-261 record for +62.53 units and a ROI of 10.7% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-155 at AZ) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 506-569 record, but for +53.89 units and an ROI of 5.0% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+130 at MIN), TEXAS (+120 at BOS), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at KC), TORONTO (-125 at LAA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 385-360 (51.7%) for +32.50 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+120 vs. PHI) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1742-1661 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -245.02 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-155 at AZ) 

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1696-2179 (43.8%) for -203.18 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at KC), BALTIMORE (+130 at MIN) 

Home teams that did score well in the last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3542-3111 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -485.03 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-142 vs. TEX), MINNESOTA (-155 vs. BAL), COLORADO GAME 1 (+154 vs. DET), LA ANGELS (+105 vs. TOR) 

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1009-868 (53.8%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +21.88 units for backers and an ROI of 1.2%.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+120 vs. PHI) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 522-440 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +22.15 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+120 vs. PHI)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 119-105 outright (+3.97 units, ROI: 1.8%).
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+130 at MIN), TORONTO (-130 at LAA)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 203-203 run (+29.31 units, ROI: 7.2%).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-130 at LAA) 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 138-111 (+9.22 units, ROI: 3.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-258 vs. CWS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI +164 (+27 diff), TAMPA BAY +130 (+21)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BAL-MIN OVER 8 (+0.6) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-KC UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), DET-COL GAME 2 UNDER 11 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) CINCINNATI (19-19) at (902) ATLANTA (17-19)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is just 13-16 (-7.38 units) vs teams with a losing record
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+164 at ATL) 

(905) BALTIMORE (13-22) at (906) MINNESOTA (17-20)
Trend: BAL is 5-13 (-9.13 units) in ROAD games this season
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+130 at MIN) 

(907) TEXAS (18-19) at (908) BOSTON (19-19)
Trend: Under the total is 10-2 (+7.80 units) in TEXAS day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-BOS (o/u at 9.5) 

(911) TORONTO (16-20) at (912) LOS ANGELES-AL (15-20)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 9-1 (+7.85 units) vs LAA in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-130 at LAA) 

(913) DETROIT (23-13) at (914) COLORADO (6-29)  (DH Game #1)
Trend: DET is 8-2 (+5.75 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT GAME 1 (-1.5 at COL) 

(915) PHILADELPHIA (21-15) at (916) TAMPA BAY (16-20)
Trend: TB is 9-15 (-10.63 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+120 vs PHI)

Trend: Jesus Luzardo is 1-8 (-8.62 units) vs. AL East competition since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-142 at TB) 

Series #8: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City, Mon 5/5-Thu 5/8
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 16-1 (94.1%) versus the Chicago White Sox, netting +14.95 units.
–  The ROI on this trend is 87.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-258 vs. CWS) 

Series #29: Texas at Boston, Tue 5/6-Thu 5/8
Trend: HOME teams are 21-11 (65.6%, +6.98 units) since 2021 in TEX-BOS head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 21.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-142 vs. TEX) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, May 12)

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