Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 1, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-16 (-12.75 units)
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+124 at STL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances in which they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 288-243 (54.2%) for +38.68 units and an ROI of 7.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-170 vs DET), ATHLETICS (+114 vs CHC)
* Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 184-122 in their last 306 tries (+21.71 units, ROI: 7.1%).
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-142 vs ATL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce-back in 2025. So far in the 2025 season, they are 8-10 for -1.41 units.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-108 vs AZ), CLEVELAND (+145 at SD), ATHLETICS (+114 vs CHC)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. So far in the 2025 season, they are 8-10 for -1.41 units.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-108 vs AZ), ATHLETICS (+114 vs CHC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6% (in the 2025 season, they are 3-2 for +1.66 units). Worse bullpen teams on three-plus game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units, an ROI of -7.2% (in the 2025 season, they are 1-0 for +1.00 unit). This has been a very consistent angle.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – LA ANGELS (+124 at STL), SAN DIEGO (-175 vs CLE)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This is a massive one-year swing for this system in 2024, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. We will give it a chance in 2025, but monitor it closely. So far in the 2025 season, this system is 4-2 for +1.18 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-108 vs AZ), LA DODGERS (-142 vs ATL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on three-plus game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%. So far in the 2025 season, this system is 0-3 for -4.18 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-162 at CWS), MILWAUKEE (-122 vs KC)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going for an ROI of about -11%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, KANSAS CITY, ST LOUIS, SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO, CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last two regular seasons, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has had an ROI of over 10%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-TB
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last six-plus seasons, going 369-353 (51.1%) for +24.18 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-122 vs KC), ATHLETICS (+114 vs CHC)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1696-1605 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -224.32 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, KANSAS CITY, CINCINNATI, NY METS, DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, ARIZONA
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over the last four-plus seasons. These road teams are just 1634-2086 (43.9%) for -178.39 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, WASHINGTON, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3426-3019 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -479.18 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, CINCINNATI, TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 969-842 (53.5%) record in the follow-up game since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +10.04 units for backers and an ROI of 0.6%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+100 vs SF)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last five-plus seasons, going 309-157 (66.3%) for +38.48 units and a R.O.I. of 8.3%!
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (*if they become favored vs Arizona)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 288-243 (54.2%) for +38.68 units and an ROI of 7.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-170 vs DET), ATHLETICS (+114 vs CHC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 107-96 outright (+0.78 units, ROI: 0.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+120 at LAD), MINNESOTA (-170 at CWS)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on an 186-186 run (+27.94 units, ROI: 7.5%).
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+120 at LAD)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a 4-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 154-170 (+6.17 units, ROI: 1.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+120 at LAD)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 197-113 (-2.62 units, ROI: -0.8%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING ALL): LA DODGERS (-142 vs ATL), SAN DIEGO (-175 vs CLE)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 184-122 in their last 306 tries (+21.71 units, ROI: 7.1%).
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-142 vs ATL)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 85-97 (-48.42 units, ROI: -26.6%) in the next game since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 vs ATL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +136 (+15 diff), NY YANKEES -108 (+16), PITTSBURGH +145 (+25), HOUSTON +102 (+23)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -135 (+24 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-MIA OVER 7.5 (+0.6), ATL-LAD OVER 7.5 (+0.7), MIN-CWS OVER 7.5 (+0.5), DET-SEA OVER 7 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-TB UNDER 9 (-0.6)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.
(961) ARIZONA (2-2) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (3-0)
Trend: Corbin Burnes just 15-15 (-2.75 units) against teams with a 58% or higher win pct
Trend Match: FADE ARIZONA (-112 at NYY)
(965) WASHINGTON (1-3) at (966) TORONTO (3-2)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 12-21 (-19.54 units) within the line range of -140 to -160 in the last six seasons
Trend Match: FADE TORONTO (*if they fall into this line range vs WSH, -166 currently*)
(969) LOS ANGELES-AL (3-1) at (970) ST LOUIS (3-1)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-16 (-12.75 units)
Trend Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+124 at STL)
(975) CHICAGO-NL (3-4) at (976) ATHLETICS (2-3)
Trend: Justin Steele is 15-7 (+6.91 units) against teams with 45% or less win pct
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-135 at ATH)
Trend: Luis Severino is 25-9 (+13.95 units) against teams with a losing record in the last three seasons
Trend Match: PLAY ATHLETICS (+114 vs CHC)
Trend: Luis Severino is 8-22 (-12.31 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match: FADE ATHLETICS (+114 vs CHC)
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
