The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 15, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last five-plus seasons, going 310-158 (66.2%) for +37.86 units and an ROI of 8.1%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-225 vs KC), TAMPA BAY (-135 vs BOS)

Trend: Houston is 3-10 (-9.45 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-130 at STL)

Trend: Home teams are on a 15-3 (83.3%) run in the Giants-Phillies series.
The ROI on this trend is 67.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-166 vs SF)

* Miami momentum after series vs. Washington: 19-14 (57.6%) 11.93 units, ROI: 36.2% 
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+136 vs AZ)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams are off to a uncustomary good start, 9-2 for +4.04 units. However, that can still be just two losses from going negative.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-225 vs. KC)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a good start, 12-2 for +7.90 units, a ROI of 56.4%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-325 vs. COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are unusually positive, 9-2 for +4.44 units. Don’t be surprised if/when this system turns the other way quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-325 vs. COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25, but the start has been slow, 32-49 for -13.41 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+140 at PHI), SAN DIEGO (+136 vs. CHC), CLEVELAND (+130 at BAL)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full ’24 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For ’25, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 28-44 for -15.27 units. I believe part of this is a reaction to several highly rated bullpens out of the gate faltering and vice versa.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+140 at PHI), SAN DIEGO (+136 vs. CHC), CLEVELAND (+130 at BAL)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that are looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 23-18 for +6.59 units, but they did drop -4.44 units over the last week. Worse bullpen teams on three-plus game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (13-9, +4.3 units) are uncharacteristic but are heading negative over the last 10 days or so.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – MIAMI (+136 vs. AZ), ST LOUIS (+110 vs. HOU)
3 games – CINCINNATI (-108 vs. SEA)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in ’25, and so far, it is 21-15 for +2.82 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+136 vs. CHC), SEATTLE (-112 vs. CIN)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on three-plus game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%. For 2025, off a very strong week, it is showing out well, 14-7 for +5.58 units, a ROI of 26.6%.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-125 vs. LAA)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on VSiN.com before opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 UNITS and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-218 vs. KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers and a return that would easily keep a bettors afloat considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 UNITS and a ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, TORONTO, NY METS, DETROIT, HOUSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well because the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:

— Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 UNITS and ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, BOSTON, ATHLETICS, NY METS, DETROIT, HOUSTON, CHICAGO CUBS

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 335-256 for +44.93 units and an ROI of 7.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-112 at CIN), CINCINNATI (-108 vs. SEA)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 167-101 for +42.69 units and an ROI of 15.9% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-112 at CIN)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 85-136 for -47.94 units and an ROI of -21.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-108 vs. SEA)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 268-234 but for -63.23 units and an ROI of -12.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (-125 vs. LAA)

MLB Series Betting System #8: Home favorites opening up an interleague series have gone 118-50 but for +17.52 units and an ROI of 10.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (*if they become favorites vs. SEA, -108 currently*)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last six-plus seasons, going 374-355 (51.3%) for +25.90 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.6%.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-105 vs. DET)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record of 1708-1628 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -240.46 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, SAN FRANCISCO, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT, SAN DIEGO

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last four-plus seasons. These road teams are just 1660-2124 (43.9%) for -188.56 units and an ROI of -5.0% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, ATHLETICS, BOSTON, KANSAS CITY

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3476-3053 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -472.45 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, TAMPA BAY, ST LOUIS, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 992-852 (53.8%) record in the follow-up game since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +22.18 units for backers and an ROI of 1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-125 vs. LAA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs. ATH), MINNESOTA (-105 vs. NYM)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 506-426 (54.4%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.20 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs. ATH), MILWAUKEE (-105 vs. DET)

Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last five-plus seasons, going 310-158 (66.2%) for +37.86 units and an ROI of 8.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-225 vs. KC), TAMPA BAY (-135 vs. BOS)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 288-246 (53.9%) for +33.55 units and an ROI of 6.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-155 vs. CLE)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 194-193 run (+28.61 units, ROI: 7.4%).
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+260 at LAD)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 186-127 in their last 313 tries (+17.26 units, ROI: 5.5%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+136 vs. CHC)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +260 (+60 diff), SAN DIEGO +136 (+33), MIAMI +136 (+29), KANSAS CITY +180 (+22), CLEVELAND +130 (+20)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PITTSBURGH -135 (+20 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATH-CWS OVER 7.5 (+1.0), SF-PHI OVER 8 (+0.8), DET-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.7), LAA-TEX OVER 8.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), SEA-CIN UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), COL-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), BOS-TB UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years. 

(953) WASHINGTON (6-10) at (954) PITTSBURGH (6-11)
Trend: PIT is 11-17 (-5.26 units) vs. NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last six seasons
Trend Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-135 vs. WSH)

(955) SAN FRANCISCO (12-4) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (9-7)
Trend: Jesus Luzardo is 10-3 (+4.55 units) at home as a -150 or higher favorite
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-166 vs. SF)

(961) CLEVELAND (8-7) at (962) BALTIMORE (6-9)
Trend: CLE is 15-6 (+9.35 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen in last two seasons
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (*if they fall into this line range, +130 currently*)

(963) BOSTON (8-10) at (964) TAMPA BAY (8-8)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 12-3 vs. AL teams (+7.83 units) since 2019
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON (+114 at TB)

(969) LOS ANGELES-AL (9-6) at (970) TEXAS (9-7)
Trend: Patrick Corbin was 12-39 (-25.66 units) vs. divisional opponents with Washington since 2020
Trend Match: CONSIDER FADING TEXAS (-125 vs. LAA)

(971) SEATTLE (8-8) at (972) CINCINNATI (8-8)
Trend: Luis Castillo is 4-14 (-9.92 units) as a shorter road underdog (-105 to +120) in the last six seasons
Trend Match: FADE SEATTLE (*if they fall into this line range, -112 currently*)
Trend: CIN is 18-11 (+5.55 units) at home with Nick Lodolo
Trend Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-108 vs. SEA)

(975) NEW YORK-NL (11-5) at (976) MINNESOTA (5-12)
Trend: MIN is 6-13 (-8.98 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last four seasons
Trend Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-105 vs. NYM)

(979) HOUSTON (7-9) at (980) ST LOUIS (8-8)
Trend: HOU is 3-10 (-9.45 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown
Trend Match: FADE HOUSTON (-130 at STL)

Trend: Erick Fedde is 18-10 (+8.30 units) in the -115 to +110 line range
Trend Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+110 vs. HOU)

Series #1: San Francisco at Philadelphia, Mon 4/14-Thu 4/17
Trend: Home teams are on a 15-3 (83.3%) run in the Giants-Phillies series.
— The ROI on this trend is 67.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-166 vs. SF)

Series #15: Boston at Tampa Bay, Mon 4/14-Wed 4/16
Trend: Boston has lost 19 of its last 24 (20.8%, -14.12 units) games at Tampa Bay (4-3, +0.93 units in the last seven games, however)
— The ROI on this trend is -58.8%
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (+114 at TB)

Series #23: Atlanta at Toronto, Mon 4/14-Wed 4/16
Trend: Atlanta is 4-11 (26.7%, -10.02 units) in the last 15 games against Toronto (since mid-2020)
— The ROI on this trend is -66.8%Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-112 at TOR)

Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

BALTIMORE
Letdown after series vs. TORONTO: 11-19 (36.7%) -6.68 units, ROI: -22.3%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday, April 15 vs. Cleveland
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-155 vs. CLE)

CINCINNATI
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 16-12 (57.1%) 4.71 units, ROI: 16.8%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday, April 15 vs. Seattle
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-108 vs. SEA)

MIAMI
Momentum after series vs. WASHINGTON: 19-14 (57.6%) 11.93 units, ROI: 36.2%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday, April 15 vs. Arizona
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+136 vs. AZ)

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