The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 29, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances in which they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 288-249 (53.6%) for +29.43 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-148 vs MIN)

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 344-263 for +45.84 units and an ROI of 7.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-155 vs KC)

Trend: Logan Webb is 1-5 (-4.32 units) on the ROAD vs San Diego in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-130 at SD)

Trend: Over the total is on a 21-7 run (+13.15 units) in the Pirates-Cubs series since September 2022.
— The ROI on this trend is 47%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-CHC (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Underdogs are on a 22-9 (71%, +20.28 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
— The ROI on this trend is 65.4%Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+120 vs BOS)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

The quickest way to play the bullpen system

For the 2025 season, better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 208-169 for +13.61 units and an ROI of 3.6%. This is a solid early return for what has been a long-running strategy I have embraced, especially when you consider that the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down -20.42 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS, NY METS, SAN DIEGO, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, MILWAUKEE

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams are off to an uncustomary good start, 21-5 for +8.83 units. However, at this point, we are still just a few highly priced losses from going negative. Besides the two horrible teams in the Rockies and the White Sox, who are almost unbackable at this point, we are hoping to get some of the other lesser teams into these high underdog prices.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs WSH), TEXAS (-205 vs ATH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 27-7 for +9.82 units, an ROI of 28.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-198 at COL), LA DODGERS (-198 vs MIA), MILWAUKEE (-238 at CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was ’23 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 and ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are unusually positive, 21-8 for +2.38 units. However, this system has been turning back toward its usual pattern in the last few weeks.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs WSH), ATLANTA (-198 at COL), LA DODGERS (-198 vs MIA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ’23 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25, but the start has been slow, 59-90 for -21.19 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+105 vs SF), TORONTO (+114 vs BOS)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full ’24 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For ’25, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 51-79 for -23.3 units. This is definitely a disappointment early in the season, but it can be made up quickly.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+105 vs SF), TORONTO (+114 vs BOS)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, the teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 32-33 for 0.13 units (ROI -0.2%) but have dropped -10.9 units over the last three weeks. Worse bullpen teams on three-plus game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (20-14, +6.95 units) are uncharacteristic.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – SAN FRANCISCO (-125 at SD), BOSTON (-135 at TOR), ATHLETICS (+170 at TEX)
3+ games – MINNESOTA (+124 at CLE)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
Teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks went 241-168 in 2023 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in ’25, and so far it is 36-28 for -3.48 units. It seems that there have been fewer than normal streaks reaching into the four-game and more range so far this season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-142 vs STL), LA DODGERS (-198 vs MIA), TAMPA BAY (-155 vs KC)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on three-plus game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%. For ’25, it is off to a reasonable start, 24-17 for +3.06 units, an ROI of 7.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+105 vs SF), CLEVELAND (-148 vs MIN), TEXAS (-205 vs ATH)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, TEXAS, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ’23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettor afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): SAN DIEGO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proved to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 UNITS and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ’23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
— Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and an ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the ’23 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-TB

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 344-263 for +45.84 units and an ROI of 7.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-155 vs KC)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 170-109 for +36.22 units and an ROI of 13% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-130 at SD)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 89-139 for -46.94 units and an ROI of -20.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+110 vs SF)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 277-238 but for -59.56 units and an ROI of -11.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-142 vs AZ), TAMPA BAY (-155 vs KC)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 316-258 record for +57.53 units and an ROI of 10% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+120 at NYM), BOSTON (-142 at TOR), MILWAUKEE (-238 at CWS)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last six-plus seasons, going 378-356 (51.5%) for +28.90 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.9%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-148 vs MIN)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1723-1647 (51.1%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -246.46 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, MINNESOTA, NY METS

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last four-plus seasons. These road teams are just 1679-2162 (43.7%) for -207.05 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS, CHICAGO CUBS, ATHLETICS, ST LOUIS

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3520-3089 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -480.00 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, NY METS, HOUSTON, LA DODGERS

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1004-857 (53.9%) record in the follow-up game since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +28.48 units for backers and an ROI of 1.5%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+120 vs BOS)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 517-431 (54.5%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.91 units, for an ROI of 2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+110 vs SF)

Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last five-plus seasons, going 315-160 (66.3%) for +39.63 units and an ROI of 8.3%!
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-142 vs AZ)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 288-249 (53.6%) for +29.43 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-148 vs MIN) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 56-125 skid (-41.32 units, ROI: -22.8%).
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+164 vs ATL)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 71-154 (-62.22 units, ROI: -27.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+164 vs ATL)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 199-200 run (+27.60 units, ROI: 6.9%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+110 vs SF)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 162-183 (+2.23 units, ROI: 0.6%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+164 vs ATL)

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 204-117 (-2.20 units, ROI: -0.7%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): CINCINNATI (-142 vs STL), TAMPA BAY (-155 vs KC)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 137-109 (+10.48 units, ROI: 4.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-155 vs KC)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 187-131 in their last 318 tries (+14.34 units, ROI: 4.5%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-155 vs KC)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 97-106 (-47.37 units, ROI: -23.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-142 vs STL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS +164 (+34 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +200 (+25), ATHLETICS +170 (+23), COLORADO (+15)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NY METS -142 (+28 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.8), SF-SD OVER 6.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-TB UNDER 9 (-1.0), ATH-TEX UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), MIN-CLE UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), STL-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), WSH-PHI UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), ATL-COL UNDER 11 (-0.5)

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years. 

(951) ST LOUIS (12-17) at (952) CINCINNATI (16-13)
Trend: Brady Singer is 8-9 (-5.78 units) as a favorite in -135 to -175 line range
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-142 vs. STL)

(953) CHICAGO-NL (17-12) at (954) PITTSBURGH (11-18)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 21-34 (-15.27 units) vs. teams with a >53% win pct in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+120 vs. CHC)

(955) WASHINGTON (13-16) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (15-13)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 9-18 (-7.54 units) vs. NL East opponents in his career
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+160 at PHI)

Trend: Zack Wheeler is 15-3 (+9.75 units) as a home favorite between -165 and -190 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (*if they fall into this line range, -192 currently*)

(961) SAN FRANCISCO (19-10) at (962) SAN DIEGO (17-11)
Trend: Logan Webb is 1-5 (-4.32 units) on the road vs. San Diego in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-130 at SD)

(979) MILWAUKEE (14-15) at (980) CHICAGO-AL (7-21)
Trend: MIL is 11-5 (+4.12 units) vs. the Chicago White Sox or Cubs with starter Freddy Peralta in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-238 at CWS)

Series #3: Minnesota at Cleveland, Mon 4/28-Thu 5/1
Trend: Cleveland has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons, going 27-11 (71.1%) for +18.58 units.
— The ROI on this trend is 48.9%.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-148 vs. MIN)

Series #4: Arizona at NY Mets, Tue 4/29-Thu 5/1
Trend: NY METS are 23-7 (76.7%, +15.37 units) in their last 30 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
— The ROI on this trend is 51.2%.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-142 vs. AZ)

Series #10: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Tue 4/29-Thu 5/1
Trend: Over the total is on a 21-7 run (+13.15 units) in the Pirates-Cubs series since September 2022.
— The ROI on this trend is 47%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-CHC (o/u at 8.5)

Series #20: Boston at Toronto, Tue 4/29-Thu 5/1
Trend: Underdogs are on a 22-9 (71%, +20.28 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
— The ROI on this trend is 65.4%

Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+120 vs. BOS)
Series #21: Atlanta at Colorado, Mon 4/28-Wed 4/30
Trend: ATLANTA has won 17 of its last 21 games against Colorado (81%, +7.33 units)
— The ROI on this trend is 34.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-198 at COL)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NY METS 
Letdown after series vs. Washington: 10-20 (33.3%) -18.60 units, ROI: -67.6%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday, April 29 vs. Arizona
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-142 vs. AZ)

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