Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 8, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Sonny Gray is 10-2 (+8.90 units) as a road underdog between line range +105 to +115 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ST. LOUIS (+114 at PIT)
* Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,705-1,619 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -232.00 units. This represents an ROI of -7%.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+136 vs MIL)
* Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5 as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 192-190 run (+30.01 units, ROI: 7.9%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-175 vs LAA)
CHICAGO WHITE SOX LETDOWN after series vs. DET: 9-21 (30%) -12.25 units, ROI: -40.8%
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 at CLE)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! In the 2025 season, these teams are off to an uncustomary good start, 6-1 for +3.42 units. However, that can still be just a single loss from going negative.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-205 vs CWS)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3%. For 2025, these teams are off to a huge start, 7-1 for +5.02 units, an ROI of 62.8%.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-285 vs MIA)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are slightly positive, 6-2 for +1.44 units.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-205 vs CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in 2023, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 20-36 for -13.65 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST. LOUIS (+114 at PIT), NY YANKEES (+136 at DET), TORONTO (+164 at BOS), MINNESOTA (+102 at KC), HOUSTON (-108 at SEA), TEXAS (+136 at CHC)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have been a blemish on our overall good start, as they are 18-32 for -12.85 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST. LOUIS (+114 at PIT), NY YANKEES (+136 at DET), MINNESOTA (+102 at KC), HOUSTON (-108 at SEA), TEXAS (+136 at CHC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
It’s a strong strategy to fade teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that are looking to extend a winning streak. Over the last two regular seasons, teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. This year, they are 19-8 for +12.57 units. Worse bullpen teams on three-plus game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (12-6, +5.84 units) are uncharacteristic.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – PITTSBURGH (-135 vs STL), LA ANGELS (+145 at TB), KANSAS CITY (-122 vs MIN)
3+ games – WASHINGTON (+145 vs LAD), DETROIT (-162 vs NYY)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and so far it is 14-10 for +2.20 units.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (-285 vs MIA)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on three-plus game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is nearly dead even so far, 7-6 for -0.12 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST. LOUIS (+114 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (-175 vs LAA), ARIZONA (-118 vs BAL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going for an ROI of about +17%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, CLEVELAND, BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gotten an ROI of 1.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors are looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of two full baseball seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two years when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group has had an ROI of 11%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution against getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going for an ROI of about -11%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: A unique system has developed since the start of the 2023 season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they had an atrocious ROI of -27%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 260-225 but for -58.96 units and an ROI of -12.2% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-175 vs LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 308-247 record for +60.05 units and an ROI of 10.8% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-105 at ATL), MILWAUKEE (-162 at COL), LA ANGELS (+145 at TB)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, regardless of whether the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,705-1,619 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -232.00 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+136 vs MIL)
Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You should consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last four-plus seasons. These road teams are just 1,649-2,105 (43.9%) for -180.34 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, MIAMI, MINNESOTA, TEXAS, CINCINNATI
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,455-3,034 (53.2%,) but they have been a loser for bettors at -469.32 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO, DETROIT, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO CUBS
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 977-846 (53.6%) record in the follow-up game since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +14.01 units for backers and an ROI of 0.8%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, SEATTLE, SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 112-97 outright (+4.88 units, ROI: 2.3%).
System Match (PLAY): ST. LOUIS (+114 at PIT)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 192-190 run (+30.01 units, ROI: 7.9%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-175 vs LAA)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 155-172 (+5.31 units, ROI: 1.6%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-175 vs LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 203-116 (-1.02 units, ROI: -0.3%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-285 vs MIA)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 133-104 (+13.17 units, ROI: 5.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-285 vs MIA)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 93-103 (-48.25 units, ROI: -24.6%) in the next game since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-162 vs NYY)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +230 (+50 diff), PHILADELPHIA -105 (+24), TORONTO +164 (+24), TEXAS +136 (+22), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +170 (+15), NY YANKEES +136 (+15), LA ANGELS +145 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO -135 (+40), SAN FRANCISCO -130 (+19 diff), LA DODGERS -175 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-ATL OVER 7 (+0.9), MIL-COL OVER 9.5 (+0.6), BAL-AZ OVER 9 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LAD-WSH UNDER 9 (-0.9)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.
(901) ST. LOUIS (4-6) at (902) PITTSBURGH (4-7)
Trend: Sonny Gray is 10-2 (+8.90 units) as a road underdog between line range +105 to +115 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ST. LOUIS (+114 at PIT)
(909) MILWAUKEE (5-5) at (910) COLORADO (2-7)
Trend: Colorado is 10-18 (-4.05 units) in the underdog line range of +125 to +150 with starter Kyle Freeland in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+136 vs MIL)
(911) CINCINNATI (4-7) at (912) SAN FRANCISCO (8-2)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is 15-8 (+8.49 units) vs teams with a winning record
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+110 at SF)
(923) HOUSTON (4-6) at (924) SEATTLE (4-7)
Trend: Houston is 7-3 (+3.92 units) as a slight underdog (between -108 to +105) with starter Framber Valdez in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-108 at SEA)
(925) TEXAS (8-3) at (926) CHICAGO-NL (8-5)
Trend: The Cubs are 14-5 (+6.35 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 range by starter Jameson Taillon in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs TEX)
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
LETDOWN after series vs. DETROIT: 9-21 (30%) -12.25 units, ROI: -40.8%
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 at CLE)
