The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, June 10, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 325-164 (66.5%) for +41.77 units and an ROI of 8.5%.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-157 vs. WSH)

Trend: Colin Rea is good in the -120 to +135 line range (22-9 record, +14.43 units) since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at PHI)

Trend: Colorado is 8-29 (21.6%, -16.83 units) in their last 37 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -45.5%
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+195 vs. SF)

* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 170-104 for +27.89 units. This represents an ROI of +10.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-108 at CLE), NY YANKEES (-206 at KC), SAN DIEGO (-115 vs. LAD)

Trend: CLE is 3-12 (-9.00 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-113 vs. CIN)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 465-391 for +2.13 units and an ROI of 0.2%. We’re off a slight losing week, giving back -3.24 units of profit. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy, playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettor now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -51 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI, CHICAGO CUBS, NY METS, ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS, CLEVELAND, TORONTO, SEATTLE

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 89-52 for +23.95 units, and an ROI of 17%. To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. We gained +1.8 units last week.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-124 at MIL), SAN DIEGO (-115 vs. LAD), TORONTO (-103 at STL)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a negative SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 22-24 for -9.39 units. This represents an ROI of -20.4%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): WASHINGTON (+129 at NYM)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 66-84 for -19.91 units. This represents an ROI of -13.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-110 vs. TB), HOUSTON (-174 vs. CWS), MINNESOTA (-126 vs. TEX)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 170-104 for +27.89 units. This represents an ROI of +10.2%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-108 at CLE), NY YANKEES (-206 at KC), SAN DIEGO (-115 vs. LAD)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 76-152 for -35.23 units. This represents an ROI of -15.5%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+195 vs. SF), ATHLETICS (+123 at LAA)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%. For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 52-20 for +7.68 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it is losing ground nearly every week lately and is just a few heavy-priced favorite losses from going negative.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-206 at KC)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 75-23 for +16.28 units, an ROI of 16.6%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-244 at COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are well in the black again and riding a seven-week winning streak. For the season, the record is 168-185 for +10.71 units, an ROI of 3.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+107 at BAL), MIAMI (+118 at PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (-110 at BOS), TORONTO (-103 at STL), SEATTLE (+107 at AZ)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate but are now 143-161 for -5.55 units after winning +4.72 units last week.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+107 at BAL), MIAMI (+118 at PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (-110 at BOS), TORONTO (-103 at STL), SEATTLE (+107 at AZ)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 82-91 for -5.35 units (ROI -3.1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (44-38, +8.72 units) are somewhat surprising.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – TEXAS (+104 at MIN), LA DODGERS (-106 at SD)
3+ games – CINCINNATI (-108 at CLE), PITTSBURGH (-143 vs. MIA)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When studying teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks in 2023, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 97-74 for +1.16 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-157 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (-244 at COL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 UNITS and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettor afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group was 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, SAN FRANCISCO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, ST LOUIS, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season and a half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-COL

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 371-283 for +51.48 units and an ROI of 7.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-157 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (-244 at WSH)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 293-262 but for -77.20 units and an ROI of -13.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-119 vs. DET), NY METS (-157 vs. WSH), HOUSTON (-174 vs. CWS)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,791-1,709 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -254.00 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): NY METS, PITTSBURGH, TAMPA BAY

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,774-2,258 (44%) for -197.49 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+129 at NYM)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,633-3,194 (53.2%,) but they have been a loser for bettors at -500.38 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, PITTSBURGH, BOSTON, NY METS, MINNESOTA, COLORADO, LA ANGELS, SAN DIEGO, ARIZONA

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 325-164 (66.5%) for +41.77 units and an ROI of 8.5%.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-157 vs. WSH)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 301-260 (53.8%) for +31.27 units and an ROI of 5.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-113 vs. CIN), COLORADO (+195 vs. SF)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t typically score a lot of runs. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 156-120 (+17.15 units, ROI: 6.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-244 at COL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY -110 (+36 diff), COLORADO +195 (+22), CHICAGO CUBS -108 (+20), DETROIT -102 (+17), MILWAUKEE +102 (+16)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -113 (+20), MINNESOTA -126 (+19)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-BOS OVER 9 (+0.6), LAD-SD OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-CLE UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), SF-COL UNDER 11.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) MIAMI (24-40) at (952) PITTSBURGH (27-40)
Trend: PIT is 11-19 (-7.51 units) vs. NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-143 vs. MIA)

(953) CHICAGO-NL (40-26) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (38-28)
Trend: Colin Rea is good in the -120 to +135 line range (22-9 record, +14.43 units) since start of 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at PHI)

Trend: CHC has the best road record in the MLB this season (20-14, +5.89 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at PHI)

(955) WASHINGTON (30-35) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (42-24)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 9-19 (-8.54 units) vs. NL East opponents in his career
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+129 at NYM)

(957) ATLANTA (28-37) at (958) MILWAUKEE (35-32)
Trend: Under the total is 25-11-2 (+12.90 units) in Brewers night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MIL (o/u at 8.5)

(959) SAN FRANCISCO (38-28) at (960) COLORADO (12-53)
Trend: COL is 1-17 (-14.82 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+195 vs. SF)

(961) LOS ANGELES-NL (40-27) at (962) SAN DIEGO (37-28)
Trend: Over the total is 5-1 (+3.90 units) when LAD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAD-SD (o/u at 8)

(963) DETROIT (43-24) at (964) BALTIMORE (26-38)
Trend: DET is 12-4 (+8.47 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-102 at BAL)

(967) TEXAS (31-35) at (968) MINNESOTA (35-30)
Trend: TEX is 6-20 (-13.19 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+104 at MIN)

(969) NEW YORK-AL (39-25) at (970) KANSAS CITY (34-32)
Trend: Max Fried is 23-10 (+9.55 units) in road starts since start of 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-206 at KC)

(973) ATHLETICS (26-42) at (974) LOS ANGELES-AL (31-34)
Trend: Over the total is 28-14-4 (+12.60 units) when ATH is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATH-LAA (o/u at 9)

(975) CINCINNATI (34-33) at (976) CLEVELAND (34-31)
Trend: CLE is 3-12 (-9.00 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-113 vs. CIN)

(977) TORONTO (36-30) at (978) ST LOUIS (36-30)
Trend: TOR is 25-14 (+9.95 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-1.5 at STL)

Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Tue 6/10-Thu 6/12
Trend: Colorado is 8-29 (21.6%, -16.83 units) in their last 37 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -45.5%
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+195 vs. SF)

Series #24: Detroit at Baltimore, Tue 6/10-Thu 6/12
Trend: Favorites are 18-8 (69.2%, +6.31 units) in the last 26 games of BAL-DET series
– The ROI on this trend is 24.3%
Trend Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-119 vs. DET)

Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NY YANKEES
Letdown after series vs. Boston: 17-15 (53.1%) -9.18 units, ROI: -28.7%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday, June 10 at Kansas City
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-206 at KC)

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