The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, June 3, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Favorites are on a 17-2 (89.5%, +12.95 units) surge in the Athletics-Twins series.
— The ROI on this trend is 68.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-198 at ATH)

Trend: Under the total is 11-2-2 (+8.80 units) when the Astros are a moneyline underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-PIT (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 367-279 for +51.07 units and an ROI of 7.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+120 vs PHI), BALTIMORE (+120 at SEA)

* Moneyline underdog teams with better SM Bullpen Ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790 but for +46.27 units. For the 2025 season, the record is 145-163 for +5.75 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+136 at PIT), TORONTO (+120 vs PHI), MILWAUKEE (+110 at CIN), TEXAS (+120 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+120 at STL), BALTIMORE (+120 at SEA), NY METS (+120 at LAD)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 421-346 for +8.32 units and an ROI of 1.2% so far in the regular season. We’re off a solid week returning over +7 units of profit. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettors now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -46.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, HOUSTON, CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO, BOSTON, MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, TEXAS, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO, NY METS

FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons, when the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage at least 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for a loss of -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%. For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 48-18 for +8.11 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it is losing ground quickly and is just a few heavy-priced favorite losses from going negative.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-205 vs CLE), MINNESOTA (-198 at ATH)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 51-19 for +7.04 units. However, this system also remains just a few games away from going negative and has trended back to normalcy over the last few weeks.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-205 vs CLE)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are in the black once again and riding a five-week winning streak. For the season, the record is now 145-163 for +5.75 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+136 at PIT), TORONTO (+120 vs PHI), MILWAUKEE (+110 at CIN), TEXAS (+120 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+120 at STL), BALTIMORE (+120 at SEA), NY METS (+120 at LAD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now 125-141 for -4.91 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+136 at PIT), TORONTO (+120 vs PHI), MILWAUKEE (+110 at CIN), TEXAS (+120 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+120 at STL), BALTIMORE (+120 at SEA), NY METS (+120 at LAD)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 74-81 for -5.07 units (ROI -3.3%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (41-35, +7.99 units) are somewhat surprising.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – CLEVELAND (+170 at NYY), SAN DIEGO (+136 at SF)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When studying teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks in 2023, those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and so far it is 90-64 for +4.70 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+120 vs PHI), MILWAUKEE (+110 at CIN), BALTIMORE (+120 at SEA), NY METS (+120 at LAD)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website before opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettors afloat considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MILWAUKEE, TAMPA BAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 UNITS and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, ST LOUIS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 367-279 for +51.07 units and an ROI of 7.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+120 vs PHI), BALTIMORE (+120 at SEA)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 101-147 for -44.71 units and an ROI of -18% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): *watch for TORONTO vs PHI (+120 currently)*

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 290-257 but for -73.17 units and an ROI of -13.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-162 vs HOU), TAMPA BAY (-142 vs TEX), ST LOUIS (-142 vs KC)

MLB Series Betting System #8: Home favorites opening up an interleague series have gone 136-67 but for +4.88 units and an ROI of 2.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-162 vs HOU), ST LOUIS (-142 vs KC)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 333-272 record for +58.99 units and an ROI of 9.8% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-155 at WSH), TEXAS (+120 at TB)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 391-370 (51.4%) for +28.95 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.8%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+130 vs DET)

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,783-1,700 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.13 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-155 at CWS), MINNESOTA (-198 at ATH)

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,760-2,246 (43.9%) for -198.97 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-142 at TOR), HOUSTON (+136 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (+136 at SF)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,620-3,181 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -502.60 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+120 vs PHI), NY YANKEES (-205 vs CLE), BOSTON (-142 vs LAA)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1027-888 (53.6%) record in the follow-up game since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +14.05 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-142 vs TEX), SAN FRANCISCO (-162 vs SD)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 533-450 (54.2%) record in the next game when at home in that same period. The profit there is +20.73 units, for an ROI of 2.1%.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-142 vs KC)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 63-130 skid (-34.24 units, ROI: -17.7%).
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+160 vs MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on skids have gone 18-19 (+12.01 units, ROI: 32.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 76-158 (-59.35 units, ROI: -25.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+160 vs MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 217-214 run (+35.87 units, ROI: 8.3%).
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+130 vs DET)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 155-118 (+18.11 units, ROI: 6.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+120 vs PHI)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS +120 (+31 diff), SAN DIEGO +136 (+23), CLEVELAND +170 (+21), TORONTO +120 (+19), HOUSTON +136 (+17)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT -155 (+54 diff), ATLANTA -142 (+28), SEATTLE -142 (+22)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: DET-CWS OVER 8.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIL-CIN UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), AZ-ATL UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(903) CHICAGO-NL (37-22) at (904) WASHINGTON (28-31)
Trend: WSH is 30-15 (+12.27 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 vs. CHC)

(905) MILWAUKEE (33-28) at (906) CINCINNATI (29-32)
Trend: Under the total is 22-10-2 (+11.00 units) in Brewers night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CIN (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: CIN is just 2-12 (-10.92 units) in matchups vs. MIL or PIT with starter Hunter Greene
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-130 vs. MIL)

(911) NEW YORK-NL (38-22) at (912) LOS ANGELES-NL (36-24)
Trend: Under the total is 10-1 (+8.90 units) when NYM is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-LAD (o/u at 9)

(913) CLEVELAND (32-26) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (36-22)
Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 3-10 (-16.20 units) in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-205 vs. CLE)

(915) LOS ANGELES-AL (27-32) at (916) BOSTON (29-33)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 1-6 (-6.22 units) vs. Boston in his career
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+120 at BOS)

(917) TEXAS (29-31) at (918) TAMPA BAY (30-29)
Trend: TEX is 6-17 (-10.19 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+120 at TB)

(919) DETROIT (40-21) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (18-42)
Trend: OVER the total is 21-10-1 (+10.00 units) in Tigers night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-CWS (o/u at 8.5)

(921) BALTIMORE (22-36) at (922) SEATTLE (32-26)
Trend: SEA is 10-5 (+3.68 units) as a short home favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in the last three seasons
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SEATTLE (*if they fall into this line range, -142 currently*)

(923) MINNESOTA (32-27) at (924) ATHLETICS (23-38)
Trend: Over the total is 24-13-3 (+9.70 units) when ATH is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-ATH (o/u at 10)

(925) HOUSTON (32-27) at (926) PITTSBURGH (22-38)
Trend: Under the total is 11-2-2 (+8.80 units) when HOU is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-PIT (o/u at 7.5)

(927) PHILADELPHIA (36-23) at (928) TORONTO (31-28)
Trend: PHI is 12-18 (-9.83 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez in the last two-plus seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-142 at TOR)

(929) KANSAS CITY (31-29) at (930) ST LOUIS (33-26)
Trend: Under the total is 26-9 (+16.10 units) in Royals night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-STL (o/u at 9)

Series #18: Milwaukee at Cincinnati, Mon 6/2-Wed 6/4
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 28-9 (75.7%, +17.79 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
— The ROI on this trend is 48.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+110 at CIN)

Series #19: Minnesota at Athletics, Mon 6/2-Thu 6/5
Trend: Favorites are on a 17-2 (89.5%, +12.95 units) surge in the Athletics-Twins series.
— The ROI on this trend is 68.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-198 at ATH)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, June 6)

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