The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, May 20, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 98-145 for -45.74 units and an ROI of -18.8% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+105 vs SD)

Trend: Under the total is 23-7 (+15.30 units) in Royals night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-SF (o/u at 8)

* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 31-91 skid (-39.66 units, ROI -32.5%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+110 at MIL)

Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons, going 30-11 (73.2%, +21.68 units).
— The ROI on this trend is 52.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-105 at MIN)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 330-275 for +2.42 units and an ROI of 0.4% in the regular season. This is still a solid early return for what has been a long-running strategy I have embraced, especially when you consider that the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down about -37.75 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, NY METS, ATLANTA, HOUSTON, TORONTO, SEATTLE, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, SAN FRANCISCO, ATHLETICS

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%. For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 39-13 for +10.53 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it did lose nearly -3 units last week and is trending back to its normal ways.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-198 vs TEX), DETROIT (-192 at STL), LA DODGERS (-238 vs AZ)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 58-19 for +8.86 units, an ROI of 11.5%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-285 at COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and ’24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 46-16 for +8.77 units. However, this system remains just a few games away from going negative.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-198 vs TEX)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 113-137 for -7.00 units. However, we are off three straight winning weeks, so we are trending back toward profitability.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+110 at TB), TORONTO (+105 vs SD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 99-120 for -12.82 units. This is still a disappointment but is coming off three straight winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+110 at TB), TORONTO (+105 vs SD)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, the teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 54-60 for -4.97 units (ROI -4.4%), and have dropped -16.1 units over the last six weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (29-29, +0.47 units) are somewhat surprising, but we are close to normal negative territory for the first time all season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games — MIAMI (+120 vs CHC), KANSAS CITY (+124 at SF), ARIZONA (+195 at LAD)
3+ games — WASHINGTON (+154 vs ATL), LA ANGELS (+140 at ATH)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In 2023, teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 70-49 for +4.90 units, seemingly having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-135 at PIT), SEATTLE (-185 at CWS), PHILADELPHIA (-285 at COL)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%. For 2025, it is off to a decent start, 40-28 for +5.66 units, an ROI of 8.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (-166 vs LAA), LA DODGERS (-238 vs AZ)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): HOUSTON, ATHLETICS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, SAN DIEGO, MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
1. Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYM-BOS, HOU-TB

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 359-272 for +52.64 units and an ROI of 8.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+154 vs ATL)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 180-121 for +31.76 units and an ROI of 10.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-125 at TOR)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 98-145 for -45.74 units and an ROI of -18.8% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+105 vs SD)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 331-265 record for +64.74 units and an ROI of 10.9% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-185 at WSH)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1764-1681 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -249.24 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, WASHINGTON, ST LOUIS, PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1728-2205 (43.9%) for -189.22 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, NY METS

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3580-3144 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -493.94 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, NY YANKEES, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances in which they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 300-254 (54.2%) for +37.15 units and an ROI of 6.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+230 vs PHI)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 31-91 skid (-39.66 units, ROI -32.5%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+110 at MIL)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 60-127 skid (-35.58 units, ROI: -19%).
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+110 at MIL)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 17-16 (+13.37 units, ROI: 40.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 74-155 (-58.08 units, ROI: -25.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+110 at MIL)

Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 121-108 outright (+2.95 units, ROI: 1.3%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BALTIMORE (+110 at MIL)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 209-204 run (+36.34 units, ROI: 8.8%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+114 vs CIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 169-189 (+5.42 units, ROI: 1.5%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 vs SEA)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 24-57 (-12.21 units, ROI: -15.1%) in their last 81 tries.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+140 at ATH)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS +160 (+32 diff), COLORADO +230 (+28), ARIZONA +195 (+28), TEXAS +164 (+23)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS -142 (+23 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEX-NYY OVER 8.5 (+1.3), PHI-COL OVER 10.5 (+0.7)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-0.6), AZ-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) CHICAGO-NL (28-20) at (902) MIAMI (19-27)
Trend: CHC is 15-5 (+7.35 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 range by starter Jameson Taillon in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (*if they fall into this line range, -142 currently*)

Trend: Over the total is 23-12 (+9.77 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIA (o/u at 8.5)

(903) CINCINNATI (25-24) at (904) PITTSBURGH (15-33)
Trend: Bailey Falter is 12-7 (+5.14 units) as a home night starter in the last three seasons
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+114 vs CIN)

(905) ATLANTA (24-23) at (906) WASHINGTON (21-27)
Trend: ATL is 9-16 (-12.59 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-185 at WSH)

(907) PHILADELPHIA (29-18) at (908) COLORADO (8-39)
Trend: COL is 1-12 (-9.82 units) versus left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+230 vs PHI)

(911) HOUSTON (25-22) at (912) TAMPA BAY (21-26)
Trend: Under the total is 9-1-2 (+7.90 units) when HOU is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-TB (o/u at 9)

(915) CLEVELAND (25-21) at (916) MINNESOTA (26-21)
Trend: MIN is 15-5 (+10.80 units) on the run line at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs CLE)

(921) NEW YORK-NL (29-19) at (922) BOSTON (24-25)
Trend: Under the total is 24-13-1 (+9.70 units) when NYM faces right-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-BOS (o/u at 9)

(923) SAN DIEGO (27-18) at (924) TORONTO (22-24)
Trend: TOR is 18-9 (+8.99 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 vs SD)

(925) BALTIMORE (15-31) at (926) MILWAUKEE (23-25)
Trend: Under the total is 18-8-2 (+9.15 units) in Brewers night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-MIL (o/u at 8.5)

(927) DETROIT (31-17) at (928) ST LOUIS (27-21)
Trend: Over the total is 17-7-1 (+9.30 units) in Tigers night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-STL (o/u at 7.5)

(929) KANSAS CITY (27-22) at (930) SAN FRANCISCO (28-20)
Trend: Under the total is 23-7 (+15.30 units) in KC night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-SF (o/u at 8)

Series #9: Cleveland at Minnesota, Mon 5/19-Wed 5/21
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons, going 30-11 (73.2%, +21.68 units).
— The ROI on this trend is 52.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-105 at MIN)

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Mon 5/19-Wed 5/21
Trend: Cincinnati is 5-13 (27.8%, -8.37 units) in the last 18 games at Pittsburgh
— The ROI on this trend is -46.5%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-135 at PIT)

Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, May 23)

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