The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, May 27, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Carlos Rodon is not as good in the -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 3-10 (-16.20 units) in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-205 at LAA)

* Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 200-138 in their last 338 tries (+18.88 units, ROI: 5.6%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs MIN)

Trend: Under the total is 25-7 (+17.30 units) in Royals night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-KC (o/u at 8.5)

* Teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 264-169 for +57.96 units, an ROI of 13.4% since the start of the 2024 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+105 vs LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (-120 at DET), ATLANTA (-110 at PHI)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 378-316 for -0.75 units and an ROI of 0.3% so far in the regular season. We’ve given a little back in each of the last two weeks but this is still a solid early return compared to what the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down, over -42.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, ST LOUIS, SAN FRANCISCO, ATLANTA, MINNESOTA, BOSTON, KANSAS CITY, TORONTO, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 75-42 for +22.96 units, and an ROI of 19.6%. To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. Last week was the first time since I introduced this angle that it was negative, -1.88 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+105 vs LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (-120 at DET), ATLANTA (-110 at PHI)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%. For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 44-14 for +13.28 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it is still just a handful of heavily priced favorite losses from going negative.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-218 vs ATH), NY YANKEES (-205 at LAA), ARIZONA (-258 vs PIT)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a VERY strong start, 64-20 for +11.96 units, an ROI of 14.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-278 vs CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-345 vs COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 48-16 for +10.77 units. However, this system also remains just a few games away from going negative.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-278 vs CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-345 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are in the black once again and riding a four-week winning streak, including 17-10 for +9.51 units last week. For the season, the record is 130-149 for +0.40 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+105 vs LAD), ATLANTA (-110 at PHI), BOSTON (+105 at MIL), TORONTO (+124 at TEX)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now 115-128 for -3.30 units after four straight winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+105 vs LAD), ATLANTA (-110 at PHI), BOSTON (+105 at MIL), TORONTO (+124 at TEX)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 67-71 for -2.32 units (ROI -1.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (38-32, +7.34 units) are somewhat surprising.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – DETROIT (+100 vs SF), MILWAUKEE (-125 vs BOS)
3+ games – BALTIMORE (-102 vs STL), TAMPA BAY (+105 vs MIN)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When studying 2023 teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 77-58 for -0.49 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-278 vs CWS), NY YANKEES (-218 at LAA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%. For 2025, it is off to a decent start, 47-33 for +6.29 units, an ROI of 7.9%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+105 at MIL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

If you’re wondering why the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 UNITS and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): ST LOUIS, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, CINCINNATI, BOSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, ST LOUIS, DETROIT, NY METS, KANSAS CITY, BOSTON, WASHINGTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
— Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season and a half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): STL-BAL, PIT-AZ

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 181-125 for +27.95 units and an ROI of 9.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): *watch for ATLANTA at PHI, -110 currently*

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 287-253 but for -69.97 units and an ROI of -13% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-162 vs WSH)
*watch for PHILADELPHIA vs ATL, -110 currently*

MLB Series Betting System #8: Home favorites opening up an interleague series have gone 135-66 but for +5.58 units and an ROI of 2.8% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-162 vs WSH)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proved to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,742-2,226 (43.9%) for -201.17 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, SAN FRANCISCO, BOSTON, COLORADO, ST LOUIS, TORONTO, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3605-3164 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -492.74 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, ARIZONA

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1,022-883 (53.6%) record in the follow-up game since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +16.68 units for backers and an ROI of 0.9%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-345 vs COL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t typically score a lot of runs. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 154-117 (+17.59 units, ROI: 6.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs MIN)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 200-138 in their last 338 tries (+18.88 units, ROI: 5.6%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs MIN)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +275 (+72 diff), PITTSBURGH +215 (+32), BALTIMORE -102 (+26), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +225 (+23), ATHLETICS +180 (+22), WASHINGTON +136 (+15)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NYY-LAA OVER 8.5 (+0.9)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.5), CWS-NYM UNDER 8 (-0.5), PIT-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) ATLANTA (25-27) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (34-19)
Trend: ATL is 8-3 (+4.00 units) with starter Spencer Strider against teams with a 60% or higher win percentage
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-110 at PHI)

Trend: PHI is 16-9 (+7.11 units) in line range -115 to +115 with starter Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-110 vs ATL)

(953) COLORADO (9-45) at (954) CHICAGO-NL (33-21)
Trend: CHC is 26-13 (+7.23 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-345 vs COL)

(955) PITTSBURGH (19-36) at (956) ARIZONA (27-27)
Trend: PIT is 6-20 (-12.35 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+215 at AZ)

(961) TORONTO (26-27) at (962) TEXAS (26-29)
Trend: Under the total is 22-6 (+15.40 units) in Rangers home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-TEX (o/u at 8)

(965) NEW YORK-AL (33-20) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (25-28)
Trend: Under the total is 19-8-1 (+10.20 units) in Yankees night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-LAA (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Carlos Rodon is not as good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 3-10 (-16.20 units) in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-205 at LAA)

(967) LOS ANGELES-NL (33-21) at (968) CLEVELAND (29-24)
Trend: CLE is 26-9 (+18.98 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+105 vs LAD)

(969) ST LOUIS (30-24) at (970) BALTIMORE (19-34)
Trend: STL is 20-7 (+11.21 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-118 at BAL)

(975) CINCINNATI (27-28) at (976) KANSAS CITY (29-26)
Trend: Under the total is 25-7 (+17.30 units) in Royals night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-KC (o/u at 8.5)

(977) BOSTON (27-29) at (978) MILWAUKEE (27-28)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 19-9 (+2.52 units) in home night games as a favorite in the last six seasons
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-120 vs BOS)

(979) WASHINGTON (24-29) at (980) SEATTLE (29-23)
Trend: Under the total is 10-4 (+5.60 units) when SEA faces a left-handed starter this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-SEA (o/u at 8.5)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, May 30)