Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, May 6, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: BALTIMORE has won its last 10 (100%) games versus Minnesota, netting +11.7 units.
— The ROI on this trend is 117%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+142 at MIN)
Trend: Over the total is 9-1 when San Francisco is a moneyline underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-CHC (o/u at 8)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 173-111 for +36.78 units and an ROI of 13% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-120 at BOS), TORONTO (-115 at LAA), CLEVELAND GAME 1 (-122 at WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-122 at TB)
- * Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 202-201 run (+30.47 units, ROI: 7.6%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-122 at STL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 251-204 for +13.66 units and an ROI of 3%. This is a solid early return for what has been a long-running strategy I have embraced, especially when you consider that the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down -25.70 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS, SAN FRANCISCO, ST LOUIS, NY METS, TEXAS, KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA, TORONTO, ATHLETICS, CLEVELAND GAME 1 AND GAME 2, TAMPA BAY, SAN DIEGO, HOUSTON, DETROIT
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
So far this season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 53-29 for +16.2 units, and an ROI of 19.8%. To ensure this wasn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular season, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and we will be including it in the daily MLB Analytics Reports going forward.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO, TEXAS, ATHLETICS
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the winning percentage difference between the teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%. For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 27-6 for +12.65 units. This has to be slowly draining the sportsbooks, and I’d be surprised if it kept up.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-225 vs CIN)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 37-10 for +12.37 units, an ROI of 26.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-270 at MIA), KANSAS CITY (-230 vs CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25, but the start has been slow, 79-105 for -13.62 units. However, we are up +7.57 units over the last week, so we will keep this system in the daily reports for now.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+140 at CHC), ST LOUIS (-102 vs PIT), NY METS (-105 at AZ), TAMPA BAY (+102 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (-110 at NYY), HOUSTON (+105 at MIL)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full ’24 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For ’25, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 69-91 for -15.92 units. This is still a disappointment early, but we were able to capture back +7.38 units over the last week.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+140 at CHC), ST LOUIS (-102 vs PIT), NY METS (-105 at AZ), TAMPA BAY (+102 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (-110 at NYY), HOUSTON (+105 at MIL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 39-47 for -7.86 units (ROI -9.1%) and have dropped -18.89 units over the last four weeks. Worse bullpen teams on three-plus game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (22-21, +1.08 units) are uncharacteristic.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – WASHINGTON GAME 1 (-102 vs CLE), MILWAUKEE (-125 vs HOU)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in ’25, and so far it is 45-37 for -6.09 units. It is nearing extinction level, as fewer and fewer streaks are reaching the four-game level recently.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-102 vs PIT), KANSAS CITY (-230 vs CWS), SAN DIEGO (-110 at NYY)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettor afloat considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): BOSTON, NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 UNITS and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND GAME 1, PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, HOUSTON, DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 173-111 for +36.78 units and an ROI of 13% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-120 at BOS), TORONTO (-115 at LAA), CLEVELAND GAME 1 (-122 at WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-122 at TB)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 90-141 for -47.92 units and an ROI of -20.7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+100 vs TEX), LA ANGELS (-105 vs TOR), WASHINGTON GAME 1 (+102 vs CLE), TAMPA BAY (+102 vs PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 280-240 but for -59.38 units and an ROI of -11.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-170 vs BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 322-261 record for +60.53 units and an ROI of 10.4% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-120 at BOS), DETROIT (-180 at COL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1735-1659 (51.1%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -249.90 units. This represents an ROI of -7.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proved to be bankroll-busting options over their last four-plus seasons. These road teams are just 1693-2174 (43.8%) for -201.44 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, HOUSTON, SAN FRANCISCO
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3536-3104 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -482.69 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, ST LOUIS, ATHLETICS
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances in which they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 291-252 (53.6%) for +28.83 units and an ROI of 5.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-105 vs TOR)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 118-103 outright (+5.13 units, ROI: 2.3%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-122 at STL)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 202-201 run (+30.47 units, ROI: 7.6%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-122 at STL)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t typically score a lot of runs. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 138-110 (+10.22 units, ROI: 4.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-112 at NYY)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI +185 (+39 diff), MIAMI +220 (+30), SAN FRANCISCO +140 (+27)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND GAME 2 -118 (+23 diff), ATHLETICS -122 (+17), TORONTO -115 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEX-BOS OVER 8.5 (+0.7), PIT-STL OVER 7 (+0.6), DET-COL OVER 9.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-WSH GAME 1 UNDER 9.5 (-1.0), SEA-ATH UNDER 10 (-0.9), CLE-WSH GAME 2 (9.5 (-0.7), CWS-KC UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), TOR-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.6), NYM-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.6), CIN-ATL UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.
(901) LOS ANGELES-NL (24-11) at (902) MIAMI (13-21)
Trend: Over the total is 19-7 when MIA is a moneyline underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAD-MIA (o/u at 9.5)
(903) CINCINNATI (18-18) at (904) ATLANTA (16-18)
Trend: CIN is 6-1 (+7.24 units) as a large underdog of +130 or more with starter Andrew Abbott in the last two-plus seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+185 at ATL)
(905) SAN FRANCISCO (22-14) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (22-14)
Trend: Over the total is 9-1 when SF is a moneyline underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-CHC (o/u at 8)
(907) PITTSBURGH (12-24) at (908) ST LOUIS (17-19)
Trend: STL is 13-6 (+6.64 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+102 vs PIT)
(909) NEW YORK-NL (23-13) at (910) ARIZONA (18-17)
Trend: Under the total is 6-0 when NYM is a moneyline underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-AZ (o/u at 9)
(911) TEXAS (17-18) at (912) BOSTON (18-18)
Trend: Under the total is 14-5 when TEX is a moneyline favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-BOS (o/u at 8.5)
(913) CHICAGO-AL (10-25) at (914) KANSAS CITY (20-16)
Trend: Under the total is 16-4 in KC night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-KC (o/u at 8.5)
(917) TORONTO (16-18) at (918) LOS ANGELES-AL (13-20)
Trend: Under the total is 12-3 in TOR road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-LAA (o/u at 9)
(923) PHILADELPHIA (19-15) at (924) TAMPA BAY (16-18)
Trend: TB is 9-13 (-8.63 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs PHI)
(925) SAN DIEGO (23-11) at (926) NEW YORK-AL (19-16)
Trend: NYY is 0-5 (-5.00 units) as a moneyline underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-108 vs SD)
(927) HOUSTON (17-17) at (928) MILWAUKEE (18-18)
Trend: Under the total is 5-0-2 when HOU is a moneyline underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-MIL (o/u at 8)
(929) DETROIT (22-13) at (930) COLORADO (6-28)
Trend: COL is 2-14 (-10.82 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+150 vs DET)
(931) CLEVELAND (20-14) at (932) WASHINGTON (16-19) (DH Game #1)
Trend: CLE is 10-6 (+5.28 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND GAME 1 (-122 at WSH)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #2: Toronto at LA Angels, Tue 5/6-Thu 5/8
Trend: Home teams are 10-21 (32.3%, -17.65 units) in the last 31 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays.
– The ROI on this trend is -56.9%.
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-105 vs TOR)
Series #8: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City, Mon 5/5-Thu 5/8
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 14-1 (93.3%) versus the Chicago White Sox, netting +12.95 units.
– The ROI on this trend is 86.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-230 vs CWS)
Series #17: Baltimore at Minnesota, Tue 5/6-Thu 5/8
Trend: BALTIMORE has won its last 10 (100%) games versus Minnesota, netting +11.7 units.
– The ROI on this trend is 117%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+142 at MIN)
Series #29: Texas at Boston, Tue 5/6-Thu 5/8
Trend: Home teams are 20-10 (66.7%, +7.03 units) since 2021 in TEX-BOS series
– The ROI on this trend is 23.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+100 vs TEX)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, May 12)
