Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 2, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 186-187 run (+26.94 units, ROI: 7.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-120 at BAL), PITTSBURGH (-118 at TB), ATLANTA (+200 at LAD)
Trend: Luis Castillo is 0-5 (-10.25 units) vs Detroit in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+110 vs. DET)
* Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 499-422 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.26 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, SEATTLE, CINCINNATI
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! So far in the 2025 season, this system is 2-1 for +0.02 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-218 at MIA), MINNESOTA (-192 at CWS)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for 8.01 units. The ROI on this angle is at +2.3% ROI. So far in the ’25 season, they are 4-1 for +2.02 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-340 vs. COL), LA DODGERS (-245 vs. ATL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 & ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in the 2025 season, this system is 4-2 for +0.04 units.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-218 at MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. So far in the ’25 season, they are 8-13 for -4.41 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+110 vs. DET), BALTIMORE (+100 vs. BOS), TEXAS (+124 at CIN), TAMPA BAY (-102 vs. PIT), TORONTO (-105 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at HOU), CLEVELAND (+154 at SD)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. So far in the 2025 season, they are 8-12 for -3.41 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+110 vs. DET), BALTIMORE (+100 vs. BOS), TEXAS (+124 at CIN), TAMPA BAY (-102 vs. PIT), TORONTO (-105 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at HOU)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6% (in the ’25 season, they are 3-2 for +1.66 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units, an ROI of -7.2% (in the 2025 season, they are 3-0 for +3.20 units). This has been a very consistent angle.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – DETROIT (-130 at SEA), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at ATH), ARIZONA (+114 at NYY)
3+ games – LA ANGELS (+136 at STL), SAN DIEGO (-185 vs. CLE)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streak
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in ‘23, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This is a massive one-year swing for this system in 2024 and it was removed from the Analytics Report. We will give it a chance in ’25 but monitor it closely. So far in the ’25 season, this system is 5-3 for +1.18 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-245 vs. ATL), TAMPA BAY (-102 vs. PIT), TORONTO (-105 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at HOU)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handlex was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going for an ROI of about +17%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gotten an ROI of 1.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors are looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of two full baseball seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY, TORONTO, BALTIMORE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two years when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group has had an ROI of 11%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites in the last two seasons, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group got an ROI of -35%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going for an ROI of about -11%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, KANSAS CITY, PITTSBURGH, ST LOUIS, TORONTO, CHICAGO CUBS, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO, NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of the 2023 season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they had an atrocious ROI of -27%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, ST LOUIS, HOUSTON
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1699-1610 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -226.42 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+136 at STL)
Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1635-2090 (43.9%) for -181.39 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO, NY METS, TEXAS, PITTSBURGH, KANSAS CITY, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3430-3023 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -479.93 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, SAN DIEGO
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 969-843 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +9.04 units for backers and an ROI of 0.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE, MIAMI, CINCINNATI
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 499-422 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.26 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, SEATTLE, CINCINNATI
MLB Streak Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 108-97 outright (+0.78 units, ROI: 0.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-120 at BAL), PITTSBURGH (-118 at TB)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 186-187 run (+26.94 units, ROI: 7.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-120 at BAL), PITTSBURGH (-118 at TB), ATLANTA (+200 at LAD)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 154-171 (+5.17 units, ROI: 1.6%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+200 at LAD)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 199-113 (-0.62 units, ROI: -0.2%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-245 vs. ATL), SAN DIEGO (-185 vs. CLE)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 185-122 in their last 307 tries (+22.71 units, ROI: 7.4%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-245 vs. ATL)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 23-54 (-10.71 units, ROI: -13.9%) in their last 77 tries.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (*if they fall into this line range at STL, +136 currently)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 86-97 (-47.42 units, ROI: -25.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-245 vs. ATL), SAN DIEGO (-185 vs. CLE)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +180 (+44 diff), COLORADO (+60), ATLANTA +200 (+30), SEATTLE +110 (+20), TEXAS +124 (+24), TAMPA BAY -102 (+20), LA ANGELS +136 (+17), TORONTO -105 (+23)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-PHI OVER 7 (+1.2), AZ-NYY OVER 7.5 (+1.1), MIN-CWS OVER 7 (+0.7), BOS-BAL OVER 7.5 (+0.7), PIT-TB OVER 7 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-STL UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.
(903) COLORADO (1-3) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (3-1)
Trend: COL is 7-19 (-7.66 units) on the road last two seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match: FADE COLORADO (+270 at PHI)
(909) DETROIT (2-3) at (910) SEATTLE (2-4)
Trend: Luis Castillo is 0-5 (-10.25 units) vs. Detroit in the last six seasons
Trend Match: FADE SEATTLE (+110 vs. DET)
(911) BOSTON (1-4) at (912) BALTIMORE (3-2)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 19-8 (+8.23 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
Trend Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+100 vs. BOS)
(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (4-1) at (920) ST LOUIS (3-2)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 16-9 (+12.94 units) as a day game underdog of +105 or more in career
Trend Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (+136 at STL)
(925) SAN FRANCISCO (4-1) at (926) HOUSTON (2-3)
Trend: HOU is 12-3 (+5.05 units) as a home day game favorite of -150 or higher by starter Framber Valdez
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-162 vs. SF)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple on Friday, April 4)
