The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, April 30, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Over the total is on a 21-7-1 run (+13.15 units) in the Pirates-Cubs head-to-head series since September 2022.
– The ROI on this trend is 47%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-PIT (o/u at 8.5) 

Trend: Lucas Giolito is 2-12 (-13.39 units) in the month of April in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-118 at TOR) 

* Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 289-249 (53.7%) for +30.43 units and a ROI of 5.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-112 vs. NYY) 

* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 56-126 skid (-42.32 units, ROI: -23.3%).
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+240 vs. ATL)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 279-314 but for +71.55 units and an ROI of 12.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+130 at SD), LA ANGELS (+124 at SEA) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 216-171 for +19.01 units and an ROI of 4.9% so far in the regular season. This is a solid early return for what has been a long-running strategy I have embraced, especially when you consider that the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down -20.82 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS, ATLANTA, SAN DIEGO, CHICAGO CUBS, NY METS, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, TEXAS, MILWAUKEE, CINCINNATI GAME 1 AND GAME 2

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams are off to an uncustomary good start, 24-5 for +11.83 units. However, at this point, we are still just a few highly priced losses from going negative. Besides the two horrible teams in Colorado and the White Sox, who are almost unbackable at this point, we are hoping to get some of the other lesser teams into these high underdog prices.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-225 vs. WSH) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a VERY strong start, 30-7 for +12.82 units, a ROI of 34.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-325 vs MIA), ATLANTA (-298 at COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 24-8 for +5.38 units. However, this system has been turning back towards its usual pattern in the last few weeks.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-225 vs. WSH) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
 A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 60-91 for -21.17 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-105 vs. AZ), CLEVELAND (+110 vs. MIN), NY YANKEES (-108 at BAL), TORONTO (-102 vs. BOS) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 52-80 for -23.28 units. This is definitely a disappointment early in the season, but it can still be made up quickly.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-105 vs. AZ), CLEVELAND (+110 vs. MIN), NY YANKEES (-108 at BAL), TORONTO (-102 vs. BOS) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
 I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 33-35 for -1.09 units (ROI -1.6%), but have dropped -12.12 units over the last three weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (20-15, +5.95 units) are uncharacteristic.
System Match (FADE): 3-games – BOSTON (-118 at TOR)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 37-29 for -4.10 units. It seems that there have been fewer than normal streaks reaching into the four-game range and more so far this season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-325 vs. MIA), PHILADELPHIA (-225 vs. WSH), HOUSTON (-135 vs. DET), SEATTLE (-148 vs. LAA), CINCINNATI GAME 1 (-148 vs. STL) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a good start, 27-17 for +6.08 units, an ROI of 13.8%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-102 vs. BOS)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting spilts pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and a ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, TAMPA BAY 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and an ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, ATLANTA, MINNESOTA, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, MILWAUKEE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-CIN GAME 2 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 315-324 but for +44.27 units and a ROI of 6.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+260 at LAD), COLORADO (+240 vs. ATL), LA ANGELS (+124 at SEA) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 529-714 but for +10.54 units and a ROI of 0.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+130 at SD), DETROIT (+114 at HOU), LA ANGELS (+124 at SEA)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 279-314 but for +71.55 units and a ROI of 12.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+130 at SD), LA ANGELS (+124 at SEA)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 498-562 record but for +52.34 units and an ROI of 4.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+260 at LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (+130 at SD), DETROIT (+114 at HOU), LA ANGELS (+124 at SEA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game. 

Home teas off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 379-356 (51.6%) for +29.90 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-112 vs. NYY), PITTSBURGH (+145 vs. CHC), TORONTO (-102 vs. BOS) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1725-1648 (51.1%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -245.46 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, TEXAS, LA DODGERS 

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1680-2164 (43.7%) for -208.05 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS GAME 1, MINNESOTA, ATHLETICS, MIAMI 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3524-3089 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -476.00 units and a ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, TEXAS, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS 

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1004-858 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +27.48 units for backers and an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-112 vs. NYY), TORONTO (-102 vs. BOS), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+140 vs. MIL) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 289-249 (53.7%) for +30.43 units and a ROI of 5.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-112 vs. NYY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 56-126 skid (-42.32 units, ROI: -23.3%).
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+240 vs. ATL) 

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 71-155 (-63.22 units, ROI: -28%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+240 vs. ATL) 

Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 117-101 outright (+6.08 units, ROI: 2.8%).
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+124 at SEA) 

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 162-184 (+1.23 units, ROI: 0.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+260 at LAD), COLORADO (+240 vs. ATL)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 97-106 (-47.37 units, ROI: -23.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI GAME 1 (-155 vs. STL), LA DODGERS (-325 vs. MIA)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +260 (+62 diff), COLORADO +240 (+60), TORONTO -102 (+24), WASHINGTON +185 (+23), KANSAS CITY +154 (+17), CLEVELAND +110 (+15) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-PHI UNDER 7.5 (+1.0), MIL-CWS OVER 7.5 (+0.8), MIN-CLE OVER 7 (+0.6) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATH-TEX UNDER 8.5 (-1.0), MIA-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-0.9), AZ-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), BOS-TOR UNDER 9.5 (-0.6) 

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.

(917) LOS ANGELES-AL (12-16) at (918) SEATTLE (17-12)
Trend: Tyler Anderson is 20-10 (+14.06 units) vs AL West teams in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+124 at SEA) 

(919) MINNESOTA (13-17) at (920) CLEVELAND (16-13)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 16-4 (+11.05 units) in the short favorite line range of -118 to -130 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-130 at CLE) 

(925) BOSTON (17-14) at (926) TORONTO (13-16)
Trend: Lucas Giolito is 2-12 (-13.39 units) in the month of April in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-118 at TOR) 

(927) ATHLETICS (15-15) at (928) TEXAS (16-14)
Trend: Luis Severino is 9-25 (-14.21 units) as an underdog in last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+130 at TEX) 

(931) ST LOUIS (12-17) at (932) CINCINNATI (16-13)  (DH Game #1)
Trend: Brady Singer is 16-6 (+10.64 units) in home day games in L2+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI GAME 1 (-148 vs. STL) 

Series #3: Minnesota at Cleveland, Mon 4/28-Thu 5/1
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 28-11 (71.1%) for +19.58 units.
–  The ROI on this trend is 50.2%.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+110 vs. MIN)

Series #4: Arizona at NY Mets, Tue 4/29-Thu 5/1
Trend: NY METS are 24-7 (77.4%, +16.37 units) in the last 31 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
–  The ROI on this trend is 51.2%.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-105 vs. AZ) 

Series #10: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh, Tue 4/29-Thu 5/1
Trend: Over the total is on a 21-7-1 run (+13.15 units) in the Pirates-Cubs head-to-head series since September 2022.
– The ROI on this trend is 47%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-PIT (o/u at 8.5) 

Series #20: Boston at Toronto, Tue 4/29-Thu 5/1
Trend: Underdogs are on a 22-10 (68.8%, +19.28 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
– The ROI on this trend is 60.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-102 vs. BOS) 

Series #21: Atlanta at Colorado, Mon 4/28-Wed 4/30
Trend: ATLANTA has won 18 of the last 22 games against Colorado (81.8%, +8.33 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 37.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-298 at COL) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Friday, May 2)

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