Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, April 9, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Max Fried is 20-8 (+9.45 units) in the last 28 road game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-155 at DET)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 271-299 but for +75.73 units and an ROI of 13.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+124 at SF), BALTIMORE (+105 at AZ)
Trend: Under the total is 15-8 (65.2%, +6.14 units) in the last 23 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 26.7%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 7.5)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
– Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is slightly positive so far, 9-7 for +0.28 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-185 at WSH), NY YANKEES (-155 at DET), TAMPA BAY (-142 vs. LAA), MINNESOTA (-108 at KC)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a huge start, 8-1 for +6.02 units, a ROI of 66.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-230 vs. MIA), CLEVELAND (-192 vs. CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are slightly positive, 7-2 for +2.44 units.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-192 vs. CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25, but the start has been slow, 24-39 for -11.50 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+110 at BOS), MINNESOTA (-108 at KC), TEXAS (+130 at CHC), SAN DIEGO (+100 at ATH)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have been a blemish on our overall good start, as they are 21-35 for -12.60 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+110 at BOS), MINNESOTA (-108 at KC), TEXAS (+130 at CHC), SAN DIEGO (+100 at ATH)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 21-9 for +13.65 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle so this year’s results (14-6, +8.38 units) are uncharacteristic.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (+124 at SF), CHICAGO CUBS (-155 vs. TEX)
3+ games – WASHINGTON (+154 vs. LAD), DETROIT (+130 vs. NYY), LA ANGELS (+120 at TB), KANSAS CITY (-155 vs. TEX)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and so far it is 15-10 for +3.20 units.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-230 vs MIA)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is slightly positive so far, 9-7 for +0.28 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-185 at WSH), NY YANKEES (-155 at DET), TAMPA BAY (-142 vs LAA), MINNESOTA (-108 at KC)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gotten an ROI of 1.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors are looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of two full baseball seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going for an ROI of about -11%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, SAN DIEGO, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of the 2023 season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they had an atrocious ROI of -27%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, TAMPA BAY
MLB Series Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 304-315 but for +39.20 units and an ROI of 6.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-180 at WSH), NY YANKEES (-155 at DET)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 514-688 but for +16.38 units and an ROI of 1.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+124 at SF), TEXAS (+130 at CHC), BALTIMORE (+105 at AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 271-299 but for +75.73 units and a ROI of 13.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+124 at SF), BALTIMORE (+105 at AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 124-47 but for +18.35 units and an ROI of 10.2% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-230 vs. MIA)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 481-537 record but for +59.20 units and an ROI of 5.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-180 at WSH), NY YANKEES (-155 at DET), BALTIMORE (+105 at AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1705-1620 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -233.00 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-230 vs MIA), CHICAGO CUBS (-155 vs TEX), ATHLETICS (-120 vs SD)
Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1650-2109 (43.9%) for -183.24 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-155 at DET), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+160 at CLE), LA DODGERS (-180 at WSH), MINNESOTA (-108 at KC), HOUSTON (-130 at SEA), CINCINNATI (+124 at SF)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3458-3036 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -468.20 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+130 vs. NYY), NY METS (-230 vs. MIA), WASHINGTON (+150 vs. LAD), ATLANTA (-135 vs. PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (-155 vs. TEX), ATHLETICS (-120 vs. SD)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 978-848 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +12.46 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-192 vs CWS), KANSAS CITY (-112 vs MIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-148 vs CIN)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 503-424 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.76 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-192 vs. CWS)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 192-191 run (+28.21 units, ROI: 7.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+160 at CLE), TAMPA BAY (-142 vs LAA)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 155-173 (+3.51 units, ROI: 1.1%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-142 vs. LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 204-116 (-0.02 units, ROI: 0%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-230 vs. MIA)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 134-104 (+14.17 units, ROI: 6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-230 vs MIA)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 186-126 in their last 312 tries (+18.26 units, ROI: 5.9%).
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+130 vs. NYY)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 94-103 (-47.25 units, ROI: -24%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+130 vs. NYY)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PHILADELPHIA +120 (+23 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-ATL OVER 8.5 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-ATH UNDER 10 (-1.0), MIN-KC UNDER 8 (-0.5)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.
(951) ST LOUIS (5-6) at (952) PITTSBURGH (4-8)
Trend: Erick Fedde is 18-9 (+9.40 units) in the -115 to +110 line range
Trend Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-115 at PIT)
Trend: PIT is 8-1 (+6.95 units) as a slight -105 underdog with starter Mitch Keller in the last six seasons
Trend Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-105 vs. STL)
(963) HOUSTON (5-6) at (964) SEATTLE (4-8)
Trend: HOU is 3-10 (-9.45 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown
Trend Match: FADE HOUSTON (-130 at SEA)
(967) NEW YORK-AL (6-5) at (968) DETROIT (7-4)
Trend: Max Fried is 20-8 (+9.45 units) in the last 28 road game starts
Trend Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-155 at DET)
(969) TORONTO (7-5) at (970) BOSTON (6-6)
Trend: TOR is 8-13 (-10.94 units) in the last 21 games vs. AL East foes with Kevin Gausman
Trend Match: FADE TORONTO (+110 at BOS)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 4-10 (-5.36 units) as a road night underdog since 2019
Trend Match: FADE TORONTO (+110 at BOS)
(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (7-3) at (972) TAMPA BAY (4-6)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 8-3 (+5.05 units) vs Tampa Bay in his career
Trend Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (+120 at TB)
(979) BALTIMORE (5-7) at (980) ARIZONA (6-6)
Trend: AZ is 14-6 (+7.64 units) in day games with start by Brandon Pfaadt in the last two seasons
Trend Match: PLAY ARIZONA (-125 vs BAL)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #6: Chi White Sox at Cleveland, Mon 4/8-Thu 4/10
Trend: Under the total is 15-8 (65.2%, +6.14 units) in the last 23 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 26.7%
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 7.5)
Series #8: Milwaukee at Colorado, Tue 4/8-Thu 4/10
Trend: Home teams are 16-8 (66.7%, +4.55 units) in the last 24 games between Colorado and Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 19%
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+120 vs. MIL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, April 11)
