The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, June 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 539-603 record but for +55.43 units and a ROI of 4.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-144 at MIL), TAMPA BAY (-105 at BOS), ATHLETICS (+116 at LAA), SEATTLE (-112 at AZ), LA DODGERS (-144 at SD) 

Trend: CLE is 3-13 (-10.17 units) vs. LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-106 vs. CIN) 

* Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 301-262 (53.5%) for +29.10 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-144 vs. TOR), KANSAS CITY (+104 vs NYY), MINNESOTA (-148 vs. TEX)

* This season, teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 76-154 for -37.23 units. This represents an ROI of -16.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-109 vs. SEA), LA ANGELS (-143 vs. ATH), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 at HOU), COLORADO (+167 vs. SF)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 473-397 for +2.85 units and a ROI of 0.3% so far in the regular season. We’re off a slight losing week, giving back -3.24 units of profit. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy, playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettor now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -51.5 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI, CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND, TORONTO, ARIZONA, LA ANGELS, SAN DIEGO, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, TEXAS, HOUSTON, SAN FRANCISCO 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 91-53 for +24.63 units, and an ROI of 17.1%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+119 vs. LAD)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 22-25 for -10.39 units. This represents an ROI of -22.1%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): SEATTLE (-112 at AZ)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 67-86 for -21.98 units. This represents an ROI of -14.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at PHI), CLEVELAND (-106 vs. CIN), TORONTO (+113 at STL), SAN DIEGO (+119 vs. LAD), HOUSTON (-174 vs. CWS)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 173-104 for +30.89 units. This represents an ROI of +11.2%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-272 vs. WSH)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 76-154 for -37.23 units. This represents an ROI of -16.2%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-109 vs. SEA), LA ANGELS (-143 vs. ATH), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 at HOU), COLORADO (+167 vs. SF) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 53-20 for +8.68 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it is losing ground nearly every week lately and is just a few heavily priced favorite losses from going negative.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-272 vs WSH) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 76-23 for +17.28 units, an ROI of 17.5%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-206 at COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 53-20 for +7.06 units. However, this system also remains just a few games away from going negative and has trended back to normalcy over the last few weeks.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-272 vs. WSH) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are well in the black again and riding a seven-week winning streak. For the season, the record is now 172-187 for +13.03 units, a ROI of 3.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+128 at PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at PHI), CLEVELAND (-106 vs. CIN), TORONTO (+113 at STL), ARIZONA (-109 vs. SEA), SAN DIEGO (+119 vs. LAD), DETROIT (-101 at BAL), TAMPA BAY (-105 at BOS), TEXAS (+122 at MIN) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now 147-163 for -3.23 units after winning +7.50 units over the last week-and-a-half.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+128 at PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at PHI), CLEVELAND (-106 vs. CIN), TORONTO (+113 at STL), ARIZONA (-109 vs. SEA), SAN DIEGO (+119 vs. LAD), DETROIT (-101 at BAL), TAMPA BAY (-105 at BOS), TEXAS (+122 at MIN) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 83-92 for -5.42 units (ROI -3.1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (45-39, +8.22 units) are somewhat surprising.
System Match (FADE): 3+ games – CINCINNATI (-115 at CLE) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 99-74 for +3.16 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-272 vs. WSH), TEXAS (+122 at MIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-206 at COL) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, SEATTLE, BOSTON, MINNESOTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, SEATTLE, CLEVELAND 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season, when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, BOSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-BAL, SF-COL

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 342-351 but for +48.00 units and a ROI of 6.9% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-144 vs. TOR) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 570-749 but for +27.19 units and an ROI of 2.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+133 at PIT), TORONTO (+118 at STL), ATHLETICS (+116 at LAA) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 539-603 record, but for +55.43 units and an ROI of 4.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-144 at MIL), TAMPA BAY (-105 at BOS), ATHLETICS (+116 at LAA), SEATTLE (-112 at AZ), LA DODGERS (-144 at SD) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 392-372 (51.3%) for +28.31 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+104 vs. NYY), MINNESOTA (-148 vs. TEX) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1792-1711 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -255.68 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, TEXAS, TORONTO, ST LOUIS, SAN DIEGO, ARIZONA 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1774-2259 (44%) for -198.49 units and a ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA, ATHLETICS, LA DODGERS 

Home teams that scored well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3638-3198 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -500.14 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, ST LOUIS, COLORADO, SAN DIEGO, ARIZONA

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1033-895 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +12.04 units for backers and an ROI of 0.6%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-106 vs. CIN) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 301-262 (53.5%) for +29.10 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-144 vs. TOR), KANSAS CITY (+104 vs. NYY), MINNESOTA (-148 vs. TEX) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 157-120 (+18.15 units, ROI: 6.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-209 at COL) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +216 (+50 diff), SAN DIEGO +119 (+29), MILWAUKEE +118 (+27) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: HOUSTON -174 (+25 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-BOS UNDER 10 (-0.9), DET-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) MIAMI (25-40) at (902) PITTSBURGH (27-41)
Trend: Over the total is 11-5 (+5.50 units) when MIA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-PIT (o/u at 8.5) 

(903) CHICAGO-NL (41-26) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (38-29)
Trend: CHC has the best road record in the MLB this season (21-14, +6.89 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at PHI) 

(907) LOS ANGELES-NL (40-28) at (908) SAN DIEGO (38-28)
Trend: Under the total is 15-8-1 (+6.20 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-SD (o/u at 10) 

(911) SAN FRANCISCO (39-28) at (912) COLORADO (12-54)
Trend: COL is 1-18 (-15.82 units) vs. LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+169 vs SF) 

(913) ATHLETICS (26-43) at (914) LOS ANGELES-AL (32-34)
Trend: Over the total is 28-15-4 (+11.50 units) when ATH is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATH-LAA (o/u at 9.5)

Trend: ATH is 12-24 (-8.40 units) in DAY game starts by JP Sears in the last three years
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+116 at LAA) 

(915) DETROIT (44-24) at (916) BALTIMORE (26-39)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 25-11 (+8.52 units) in night games since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-121 vs DET) 

(917) TAMPA BAY (36-31) at (918) BOSTON (33-36)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 15-5 vs. AL teams (+8.58 units) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-115 vs TB) 

(919) TEXAS (32-35) at (920) MINNESOTA (35-31)
Trend: TEX is 7-20 (-12.15 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+122 at MIN) 

(925) CINCINNATI (35-33) at (926) CLEVELAND (34-32)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is 16-10 (+7.59 units) vs. teams with a winning record in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-115 at CLE)

Trend: CLE is 3-13 (-10.17 units) vs. LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-106 vs CIN)

Trend: CLE is 17-9 (+8.40 units) in the -120 to +125 line range with starter Logan Allen since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-106 vs CIN) 

(927) TORONTO (37-30) at (928) ST LOUIS (36-31)
Trend: Over the total is 18-9 (+8.10 units) in Blue Jays day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-STL (o/u at 8.5)

(929) SEATTLE (33-33) at (930) ARIZONA (33-34)
Trend: SEA is 10-4 (+5.67 units) in day games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-112 at AZ) 

Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Tue 6/10-Thu 6/12
Trend: Colorado is 8-30 (21.1%, -17.83 units) in their last 38 games vs. San Francisco
–  The ROI on this trend is -46.9%
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+169 vs. SF)

Series #24: Detroit at Baltimore, Tue 6/10-Thu 6/12
Trend: FAVORITES are 18-9 (66.7%, +5.00 units) in the last 27 games in the BAL-DET head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 18.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-121 vs. DET)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, June 13)

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