The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, May 14, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 284-320 but for +72.49 units and a ROI of 12% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+114 at CLE), BOSTON (+185 at DET), MIAMI (+185 at CHC), KANSAS CITY (+120 at HOU) 

* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 318-161 (66.4%) for +40.93 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-162 vs. TB) 

Trend: Under the total is 18-4 (+13.60 units) in Texas home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-TEX (o/u at 9)

* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 30-91 skid (-41.26 units, ROI -34.1%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+142 at ATL) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 301-244 for +17.09 units and a ROI of 2.5% so far in the regular season. This is a solid early return for what has been a long-running strategy I have embraced, especially when you consider that the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down about -30.95 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA GAME 1, ST LOUIS GAME 1, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA GAME 2, SAN FRANCISCO, NY YANKEES, ST LOUIS GAME 2, NY METS, HOUSTON 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 64-31 for +25.19 units, and an ROI of 26.5%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS GAME 2 (+120 at PHI), HOUSTON (-142 vs. KC)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 33-9 for +12.27 units. This remains a crazy winning year for this angle. I don’t expect it to keep up for long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-225 vs. BOS), CINCINNATI (-230 vs. CWS), LA DODGERS (-285 vs. ATH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 47-13 for +14.77 units, an ROI of 24.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-278 vs. PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (-225 vs. MIA), TEXAS (-225 vs. COL), SAN DIEGO (-192 vs. LAA) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 40-12 for +11.57 units. However, this system remains just a few games away from going negative.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-225 vs. MIA), TEXAS (-225 vs. COL), SAN DIEGO (-192 vs. LAA) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 101-127 for -10.63 units. However, we are off back-to-back winning weeks, so we will keep this system on the daily reports for now.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA GAME 1 (+102 at BAL), ST LOUIS GAME 1 (+154 at PHI), MINNESOTA GAME 2 (+105 at BAL), ST LOUIS GAME 2 (+120 at PHI) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For ’25, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 88-111 for -15.72 units. This is still disappointing, but it is coming off back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA GAME 1 (+102 at BAL), MINNESOTA GAME 2 (+105 at BAL), ST LOUIS GAME 2 (+120 at PHI) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 45-54 for -9.58 units (ROI -9.7%), and have dropped -20.71 units over the last five weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (25-25, +0.96 units) are uncharacteristic.
System Match (FADE): 2-games – CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+190 at CIN) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 60-43 for +3.3 units after going up 9.75 units since May 5th. It seems to have recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA GAME 1 (+102 at BAL), ST LOUIS GAME 1 (+154 at PHI), NY METS (-278 vs. PIT), TEXAS (-225 vs. COL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the homw side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, CINCINNATI, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and a ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MINNESOTA, MINNESOTA GAME 2, SAN FRANCISCO, KANSAS CITY 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and a ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, CINCINNATI, TEXAS, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY handle TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 351-270 for +47.53 units and an ROI of 7.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA GAME 1 (+100 at BAL) 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 325-332 but for +49.89 units and a ROI of 7.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+185 at CHC) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 543-725 but for +17.79 units and a ROI of 1.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+114 at CLE), ST LOUIS GAME 2 (+120 at PHI), BOSTON (+185 at DET), MIAMI (+185 at CHC), COLORADO (+185 at TEX), KANSAS CITY (+120 at HOU), LA ANGELS (+160 at SD) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 284-320 but for +72.49 units and a ROI of 12% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+114 at CLE), BOSTON (+185 at DET), MIAMI (+185 at CHC), KANSAS CITY (+120 at HOU)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 326-263 record for +62.21 units and a ROI of 10.6% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA GAME 1 (+100 at BAL) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 510-573 record, but for +54.09 units and a ROI of 5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+114 at CLE), MIAMI (+185 at CHC), COLORADO (+185 at TEX), KANSAS CITY (+120 at HOU), LA ANGELS (+160 at SD), NY YANKEES (-118 at SEA) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 387-365 (51.5%) for +30.95 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.1%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-285 vs. ATH)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1754-1672 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -248.36 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, SAN FRANCISCO, ATHLETICS 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1711-2194 (43.8%) for -202.61 units and a ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, COLORADO, KANSAS CITY, NY YANKEES 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3562-3128 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -484.84 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE GAME 1, DETROIT, TORONTO, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 318-161 (66.4%) for +40.93 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-162 vs. TB) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 295-254 (53.7%) for +32.05 units and an ROI of 5.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-285 vs. ATH)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 30-91 skid (-41.26 units, ROI -34.1%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+142 at ATL)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 59-127 skid (-37.18 units, ROI: -20%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+142 at ATL) 

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 17-16 (+13.37 units, ROI: 40.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 73-155 (-59.68 units, ROI: -26.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+142 at ATL)

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 34-68 in their last 102 tries (-18.11 units, ROI: -17.8%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+142 at ATL)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 143-112 (+13.10 units, ROI: 5.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA GAME 1 (+100 at BAL)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 194-135 in their last 329 tries (+17.08 units, ROI: 5.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA GAME 1 (+100 at BAL), ST LOUIS GAME 1 (+154 at PHI) 

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 24-56 (-11.21 units, ROI: -14%) in their last 80 tries.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS GAME 1 (+154 at PHI) 

Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 30-15 (+16.26 units, ROI: 36.1%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS GAME 1 (+154 at PHI)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATHLETICS +230 (+52 diff), PITTSBURGH +225 (+42), BOSTON +185 (+30), TAMPA BAY +136 (+26), MINNESOTA GAME 1 +102 (+24), SEATTLE -102 (+23), MINNESOTA GAME 2 +105 (+16)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO -112 (+17 diff), SAN DIEGO -192 (+17) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-SEA OVER 8 (+1.0), AZ-SF OVER 8.5 (+0.5), BOS-DET OVER 7 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-BAL GAME 1 UNDER 9 (-0.8), CWS-CIN UNDER 9 (-0.8), PIT-NYM UNDER 8 (-0.7), WSH-ATL UNDER 9 (-0.5) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) ST LOUIS (23-19) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (24-17)  (DH Game #2)
Trend: Sonny Gray is 10-2 (+8.90 units) as a road underdog between line range +105 to +115 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS GAME 2 (*if they fall into this line range, +120 currently*) 

(905) PITTSBURGH (14-29) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (28-15)
Trend: PIT is 5-16 (-10.45 units) in road games this season
Trends Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+225 at NYM) 

(909) MIAMI (15-26) at (910) CHICAGO-NL (25-18)
Trend: Over the total is 13-6 (+6.35 units) in Miami road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-CHC (o/u at 7.5)

(915) BOSTON (22-22) at (916) DETROIT (28-15)
Trend: DET is 16-5 (+9.61 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-225 vs. BOS) 

(923) CHICAGO-AL (13-29) at (924) CINCINNATI (20-23)
Trend: CIN is 19-12 (+4.70 units) at home with Nick Lodolo
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-230 vs. CWS) 

(925) COLORADO (7-35) at (926) TEXAS (22-21)
Trend: Under the total is 18-4 (+13.60 units) in Texas home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-TEX (o/u at 9) 

(929) ATHLETICS (22-20) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (27-15)
Trend: LAD is 15-4 (+6.42 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-285 vs. ATH) 

(931) MINNESOTA (21-20) at (932) BALTIMORE (15-24)  (DH Game #1)
Trend: BAL is 30-12 (+15.13 units) in the last 2+ seasons in home games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (-122 vs. MIN) 

(933) ST LOUIS (23-19) at (934) PHILADELPHIA (24-17)  (DH Game #1)
Trend: Jesus Luzardo is 12-4 (+3.30 units) at home as a -150 or higher favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA GAME 1 (-185 vs. STL) 

Series #12: Pittsburgh at NY Mets, Mon 5/12-Wed 5/14
Trend: Favorites are 20-1 (95.2%, +18.52 units) in the last 21 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 88.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-278 vs. PIT)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, May 16)

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