The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, May 21, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 287-323 but for +73.91 units and an ROI of 12.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+124 at BOS) 

Trend: Cincinnati is 5-14 (26.3%, -9.79 units) in the last 19 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -51.5%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-130 at PIT) 

* Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 300-255 (54.1%) for +36.15 units and an ROI of 6.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+120 vs. CHC), COLORADO (+180 vs. PHI)

* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 60-128 skid (-36.58 units, ROI: -19.5%).
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+105 at MIL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 336-281 for -0.60 units and an ROI of -0.09% so far in the regular season. This is still solid considering that the average bettor playing every MLB game this season would be down around -38.50 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, SEATTLE, MINNESOTA, NY METS, ATLANTA, NY YANKEES, TORONTO, ATHLETICS, LA DODGERS 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 68-34 for +25.86 units, and an ROI of 25.4%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-162 vs. SD), ATHLETICS (-175 vs. LAA)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 41-13 for +12.53 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it did lose nearly -3 units last week and is trending back to its normal ways.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-218 vs. KC) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 59-19 for +9.86 units, an ROI of 12.6%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-218 at COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 47-16 for +9.77 units. However, this system remains just a few games away from going negative.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-218 at COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 114-138 for -7.00 units. However, we are coming off three straight winning weeks, so we are trending back towards profitability.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-102 at STL), NY METS (+124 at BOS) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For ’25, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 100-121 for -12.82 units. This is still a disappointment but coming off three straight winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-102 at STL), NY METS (+124 at BOS) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 54-63 for -7.97 units (ROI -6.8%), and have dropped -19.1 units over the last six weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (31-29, +3.31 units) are surprising, but we are close to normal negative territory for the first time all season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – BOSTON (-148 vs. NYM)
3+ games – WASHINGTON (+136 vs. ATL), LA ANGELS (+145 at ATH) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 71-51 for +2.63 units, seemingly having recovered from a slow start.
System Match (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-125 vs. BAL), PHILADELPHIA (-218 at COL) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a decent start, 41-29 for +4.96 units, an ROI of 7.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+124 at BOS), ATHLETICS (-175 vs. LAA) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettor, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early ’25 returns: 

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): DETROIT, BOSTON, SAN DIEGO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, SAN FRANCISCO, NY METS, SAN DIEGO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 328-336 but for +48.77 units and a ROI of 7.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+105 at MIL), NY METS (+124 at BOS), CLEVELAND (+100 at MIN) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 551-732 but for +21.10 units and an ROI of 1.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+105 at MIL), KANSAS CITY (+180 at SF), NY METS (+124 at BOS), ARIZONA (+114 at LAD) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 287-323 but for +73.91 units and a ROI of 12.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+124 at BOS) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 517-581 record but for +54.41 units and a ROI of 5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-130 at PIT), HOUSTON (-148 at TB), BALTIMORE (+105 at MIL), SEATTLE (-155 at CWS), KANSAS CITY (+180 at SF), NY METS (+124 at BOS), ARIZONA (+114 at LAD)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 388-366 (51.5%) for +30.77 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.2%.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+120 vs. CHC)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1766-1684 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -250.52 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-142 at MIA)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1728-2207 (43.9%) for -191.82 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, NY METS, HOUSTON, TEXAS, SAN DIEGO, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, KANSAS CITY 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3584-3146 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -491.52 units and a ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE, ATHLETICS 

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1018-880 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +15.80 units for backers and an ROI of 0.8%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-162 vs. SD) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 300-255 (54.1%) for +36.15 units and an ROI of 6.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+120 vs. CHC), COLORADO (+180 vs. PHI)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 31-92 skid (-40.66 units, ROI -33.1%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+105 at MIL) 

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 60-128 skid (-36.58 units, ROI: -19.5%).
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+105 at MIL) 

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 17-16 (+13.37 units, ROI: 40.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 74-156 (-59.08 units, ROI: -25.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+105 at MIL), ATHLETICS (-175 vs. LAA) 

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 35-68 in their last 103 tries (-16.51 units, ROI: -16%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-175 vs LAA)

Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 121-109 outright (+1.95 units, ROI: 0.8%).
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+105 at MIL)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 210-204 run (+37.54 units, ROI: 9.1%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+136 at TOR)

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 62-52 (+14.18 units, ROI: 12.4%) in their last 114 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+145 at ATH) 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 149-114 (+16.42 units, ROI: 6.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+145 at ATH) 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 197-137 in their last 334 tries (+18.03 units, ROI: 5.4%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-218 at COL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 25-57 (-10.79 units, ROI: -13.2%) in their last 82 tries.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+145 at ATH)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO +136 (+27 diff), KANSAS CITY +180 (+25), PITTSBURGH +110 (+16) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NY YANKEES -115 (+21) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-0.9), HOU-TB UNDER 8.5 (-0.5) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) CINCINNATI (25-25) at (952) PITTSBURGH (16-33)
Trend: Brady Singer is just 8-10 (-7.26 units) as a favorite in -135 to -175 line range in his career
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (*if they fall into this line range, -130 currently*) 

(953) CHICAGO-NL (29-20) at (954) MIAMI (19-28)
Trend: OVER the total is 24-12 (+10.77 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIA (o/u at 9)

(955) ATLANTA (24-24) at (956) WASHINGTON (22-27)
Trend: ATL is 9-17 (-14.29 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-162 at WSH) 

(961) CLEVELAND (25-21) at (962) MINNESOTA (26-21)
Trend: MIN is 15-5 (+10.80 units) on the run line at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs CLE) 

(963) HOUSTON (25-23) at (964) TAMPA BAY (22-26)
Trend: TB is 12-18 (-11.53 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+124 vs HOU)

(967) TEXAS (25-24) at (968) NEW YORK-AL (28-19)
Trend: TEX is 5-15 (-9.24 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-105 at NYY)

(969) LOS ANGELES-AL (22-25) at (970) ATHLETICS (22-27)
Trend: Over the total is 15-8 (+6.20 units) in Athletics home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-ATH (o/u at 10.5) 

(971) BALTIMORE (15-32) at (972) MILWAUKEE (24-25)
Trend: MIL is 19-9 (+7.83 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-125 vs. BAL)

(973) DETROIT (32-17) at (974) ST LOUIS (27-22)
Trend: STL is 17-5 (+10.57 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-115 vs. DET) 

(975) KANSAS CITY (27-23) at (976) SAN FRANCISCO (29-20)
Trend: Over the total is 15-5-1 (+9.50 units) in Giants day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-SF (o/u at 7) 

(977) NEW YORK-NL (29-20) at (978) BOSTON (25-25)
Trend: Under the total is 8-1 (+6.90 units) when NYM is an ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-BOS (o/u at 8) 

(979) SAN DIEGO (27-19) at (980) TORONTO (23-24)
Trend: TOR is 19-9 (+9.99 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-1.5 vs. SD)

Trend: Kevin Gausman is 12-21 (-21.71 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-162 vs. SD) 

Series #9: Cleveland at Minnesota, Mon 5/19-Wed 5/21
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 30-11 (73.2%, +21.68 units).
– The ROI on this trend is 52.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+100 at MIN) 

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Mon 5/19-Wed 5/21
Trend: Cincinnati is 5-14 (26.3%, -9.79 units) in the last 19 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -51.5%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-130 at PIT)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: May 23)

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