The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, May 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Luis Severino is 11-27 (-13.89 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+124 at HOU) 

Trend: Under the total is 23-6 (+16.40 units) in Rangers home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-TEX (o/u at 8.5) 

* Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 214-209 run (+36.55 units, ROI: 8.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+124 at MIL), LA ANGELS (+130 vs NYY) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 291-324 but for +77.69 units and a ROI of 12.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+140 at SD), TORONTO (+114 at TEX)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 46-15 for +12.58 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it is still just a handful of heavy priced favorite losses from going negative.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-218 vs WSH) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 66-20 for +13.96 units, an ROI of 16.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-258 vs. CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-360 vs. COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 50-16 for +12.77 units. However, this system also remains just a few games away from going negative.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-258 vs. CWS) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are riding a four-week winning streak, including 17-10 for +9.51 units last week. For the season the record is now 130-153 for -3.73 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-108 at TB), CLEVELAND (+130 vs. LAD), BOSTON (+130 at MIL), SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at DET), ST LOUIS (+102 at BAL), ATLANTA (+130 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (-102 vs. CIN), TORONTO (+114 at TEX) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now 115-132 for -7.43 units after four straight winning weeks!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-108 at TB), CLEVELAND (+130 vs. LAD), BOSTON (+130 at MIL), SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at DET), ST LOUIS (+102 at BAL), ATLANTA (+130 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (-102 vs. CIN), TORONTO (+114 at TEX) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 69-71 for -0.32 units (ROI -0.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (38-34, +5.32 units) are somewhat surprising.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – LA DODGERS (-155 at CLE), CINCINNATI (-118 at KC)
3+ games – MILWAUKEE (-155 vs BOS), DETROIT (-118 vs SF) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far it is 79-58 for +1.51 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-258 vs. CWS), HOUSTON (-155 vs. ATH), SAN DIEGO (-166 vs. MIA), NY YANKEES (-155 at LAA), CHICAGO CUBS (-360 vs. COL) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a decent start, 47-34 for +5.24 units, a ROI of 6.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+130 vs. LAD), BOSTON (+130 at MIL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:

–   2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–   2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–   2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–   2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–   Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, DETROIT, BOSTON, NY METS, ST LOUIS, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and a ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 334-341 but for +50.15 units and an ROI of 7.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+124 vs. LAD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at NYM), BOSTON (+124 at MIL), COLORADO (+285 at CHC), LA ANGELS (+130 vs. NYY)

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 558-735 but for +26.83 units and an ROI of 2.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+124 at MIL), ATHLETICS (+124 at HOU), PITTSBURGH (+114 at AZ), MIAMI (+140 at SD), ST LOUIS (+102 at BAL), TORONTO (+114 at TEX) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 291-324 but for +77.69 units and a ROI of 12.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+140 at SD), TORONTO (+114 at TEX) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 526-590 record, but for +53.63 units and an ROI of 4.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at DET), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at NYM), BOSTON (+124 at MIL), COLORADO (+295 at CHC), TORONTO (+114 at TEX), ATHLETICS (+124 at HOU) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1775-1688 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -246.67 units. This represents an ROI of -7.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, HOUSTON, PITTSBURGH, SEATTLE 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1745-2232 (43.9%) for -203.17 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, TORONTO, ATHLETICS, ATLANTA, BOSTON, WASHINGTON 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3606-3167 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -496.46 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, NY METS, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO, ARIZONA, SEATTLE 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 528-446 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.02 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-102 vs. CIN), TEXAS (-135 vs. TOR) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 321-162 (66.5%) for +40.68 units and a ROI of 8.4%!
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-148 vs. ATH)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 214-209 run (+36.55 units, ROI: 8.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+124 at MIL), LA ANGELS (+130 vs. NYY)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 172-194 (+2.42 units, ROI: 0.7%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+285 at CHC), LA ANGELS (+130 vs. NYY) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 103-112 (-50.47 units, ROI: -23.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-155 at LAA) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +295 (+80 diff), WASHINGTON +180 (+18) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NY YANKEES -155 (+28 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.8), SF-DET OVER 7.5 (+0.7), NYY-LAA OVER 8.5 (+0.7), STL-BAL OVER 8 (+0.6) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-NYM UNDER 8 (-0.8), ATH-HOU UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), TOR-TEX UNDER 8.5 (-0.5) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(903) MIAMI (21-32) at (904) SAN DIEGO (31-22)
Trend: Over the total is 10-2 (+7.80 units) when MIA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-SD (o/u at 8.5) 

(907) COLORADO (9-46) at (908) CHICAGO-NL (34-21)
Trend: CHC is 27-13 (+8.23 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-360 vs. COL)

(909) MINNESOTA (30-24) at (910) TAMPA BAY (27-27)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 2-5 (-3.30 units) vs Tampa Bay in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-108 at TB) 

(911) ATHLETICS (23-32) at (912) HOUSTON (29-25)
Trend: Luis Severino is 11-27 (-13.89 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+124 at HOU) 

(913) TORONTO (26-28) at (914) TEXAS (27-29)
Trend: Under the total is 23-6 (+16.40 units) in Rangers home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-TEX (o/u at 8.5) 

(915) NEW YORK-AL (34-20) at (916) LOS ANGELES-AL (25-29)
Trend: Under the total is 20-8-1 (+11.20 units) in Yankees night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-LAA (o/u at 9)

Trend: NYY is 13-4 (+5.08 units) as a night large favorite of -155 or higher with starter Clarke Schmidt in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-155 at LAA) 

(917) LOS ANGELES-NL (34-21) at (918) CLEVELAND (29-25)
Trend: CLE is 2-8 (-5.83 units) when facing LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+124 vs. LAD) 

(921) BOSTON (27-30) at (922) MILWAUKEE (28-28)
Trend: BOS is 6-3 (+3.80 units) on the road against NL with starter Brayan Bello in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+124 at MIL)

(923) ST LOUIS (31-24) at (924) BALTIMORE (19-35)
Trend: BAL is 12-22 (-17.70 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-122 vs. STL)

(925) CHICAGO-AL (17-38) at (926) NEW YORK-NL (34-21)
Trend: Under the total is 15-6-1 (+8.40 units) in Mets day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-NYM (o/u at 8) 

(927) CINCINNATI (28-28) at (928) KANSAS CITY (29-27)
Trend: Under the total is 25-8 (+16.20 units) in Royals night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-KC (o/u at 7.5)

(929) WASHINGTON (24-30) at (930) SEATTLE (30-23)
Trend: Over the total is 23-13-1 (+8.70 units) when SEA faces RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-SEA (o/u at 8) 

Series #1: Athletics at Houston, Tue 5/27-Wed 5/28
Trend: The Athletics are 9-25 (26.5%, -8.65 units) in their last 34 games vs. Houston
–   The ROI on this trend is -25.4%.
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+124 at HOU)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, May 30)

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