The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, July 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

Top MLB Resources:

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* TEXAS letdown in next game after series vs. LA ANGELS: 6-26 (19.4%) -19.45 units, ROI: -60.8%
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+104 at HOU)

Trend: BAL is 32-13 (+15.88 units) in the last 45 home games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-130 vs. MIA)

* Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 312-205 +67.32 units, an ROI of 13%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+113 at BAL), ATLANTA (-122 at STL), SAN FRANCISCO (-132 vs. LAD)

* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 110-121 (-58.70 units, ROI: -25.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-192 vs. CHC), BOSTON (-115 vs. TB)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 123-78 for +32.32 units, and an ROI of 16.1%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+113 at BAL), ATLANTA (-122 at STL), SAN FRANCISCO (-132 vs. LAD)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 37-35 for -6.87 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -9.5% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): NY METS (-137 at KC), PHILADELPHIA (-163 at SD)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 102-128 for -27.52 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND GAME 1 (-123 at CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (+156 at NYY)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 212-118 for +38.42 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +11.6%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-252 vs. SEA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 87-184 for -46.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -17.2%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+201 at CIN), ATHLETICS (+140 at TOR)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 69-30 for +2.07 units. This remains a winning first-half angle, although we are very close to going red.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-252 vs. SEA), MILWAUKEE (-207 vs. WSH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 100-29 for +26.21 units, an ROI of 20.3%.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-252 vs. COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 67-25 for +10.22 units. We remain just a few losses away from going into the usual negative territory. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-207 vs. WSH)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 247-278 for +17.56 units, ROI +3.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+113 at BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (+156 at NYY), KANSAS CITY (+113 vs. NYM), LA ANGELS (-101 vs. AZ), SAN DIEGO (+133 vs. PHI)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 125-129 for -0.12 units (ROI -0.1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 64-60, +2.92 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – BALTIMORE (-137 vs. MIA)
3+ games – NY YANKEES (-192 vs. CHC)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and so far it is 132-102 for +1.51 units, after having recovered from a very slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND GAME 1 (-123 at CWS), BOSTON (-115 vs. TB), KANSAS CITY (+113 vs. NYM), MILWAUKEE (-207 vs. WSH)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:

  • 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and a ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettor afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): BOSTON, MINNESOTA, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, DETROIT

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, CHICAGO CUBS, PITTSBURGH, NY METS, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 were just 393-334 (54.1%) for -90.59 units and a ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-CWS GAME 1, AZ-LAA

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 391-302 for +48.79 units and an ROI of 7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND GAME 1 (-123 at CWS), NY YANKEES (-192 vs. CHC), KANSAS CITY (+113 vs. NYM), MILWAUKEE (-207 vs. WSH)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 193-137 for +25.56 units and an ROI of 7.7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND GAME 1 (-123 at CWS), ATLANTA (-122 at STL), ARIZONA (-120 at LAA)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 115-153 for -35.92 units and a ROI of -13.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+113 vs. NYM), ST LOUIS (+100 vs. ATL), LA ANGELS (-101 vs AZ)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 348-292 record for +53.61 units and an ROI of 8.4% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+156 at NYY), TEXAS (+104 at HOU), PHILADELPHIA (-163 at SD)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1849-1759 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.96 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-163 at SD), TEXAS (+104 at HOU)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1837-2332 (44.1%) for -205.20 units and a ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, LA DODGERS, COLORADO, MIAMI, WASHINGTON

Home teams that scored well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3734-3284 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -519.56 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, NY YANKEES, ST LOUIS, ATHLETICS

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 550-464 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.25 units, for an ROI of 2.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-207 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (-132 vs. LAD)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 309-272 (53.2%) for +25.32 units and an ROI of 4.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-252 vs. SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (-132 vs. LAD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 235-244 run (+16.78 units, ROI: 3.5%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+108 at MIN)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 110-121 (-58.70 units, ROI: -25.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-192 vs. CHC), BOSTON (-115 vs. TB)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE +201 (+40 diff), CHICAGO CUBS +156 (+36), ST LOUIS +100 (+32), COLORADO +201 (+22), MIAMI +113 (+15)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO +133 (+18 diff), CLEVELAND GAME 2 -126 (+15), HOUSTON -126 (+15)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CLE-CWS GAME 2 OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-KC UNDER 9.5 (-0.9), CLE-CWS GAME 1 UNDER 9 (-0.7), MIA-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.6), ATL-STL UNDER 9 (-0.6), TOR-ATH UNDER 11 (-0.6)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) COLORADO (21-72) at (902) CINCINNATI (48-46)
Trend: Under the total is 31-19-2 (+10.10 units) when CIN is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-CIN (o/u at 9)

(903) WASHINGTON (38-55) at (904) MILWAUKEE (53-40)
Trend: WSH is 42-24 (+13.44 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at MIL)

(905) ATLANTA (40-52) at (906) ST LOUIS (50-44)
Trend: ATL is 37-40 (-29.37 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-122 at STL)

(907) PHILADELPHIA (54-39) at (908) SAN DIEGO (50-43)
Trend: PHI is 11-7 (+6.51 units) in road night game starts against teams with a winning record by Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-163 at SD)

Trend: UNDER the total is 23-12-2 (+9.80 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-SD (o/u at 8)

(909) LOS ANGELES-NL (56-38) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (51-43)
Trend: SF is 15-4 (+8.40 units) at home as a favorite vs Divisional opponents with starter Logan Webb in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-132 vs. LAD)

(913) SEATTLE (48-45) at (914) DETROIT (59-35)
Trend: Luis Castillo is 1-5 (-9.20 units) vs Detroit in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+193 at DET)

(917) TEXAS (46-48) at (918) HOUSTON (55-38)
Trend: TEX is 10-24 (-12.74 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+104 at HOU)

(919) TORONTO (54-39) at (920) ATHLETICS (39-56)
Trend: Luis Severino is 12-34 (-19.51 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+140 vs. TOR)

(921) MIAMI (42-50) at (922) BALTIMORE (42-50)
Trend: MIA is 16-12 (+6.34 units) as a shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+107 at BAL)

Trend: BAL is 32-13 (+15.88 units) in the last 45 home games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-130 vs. MIA)

(923) CHICAGO-NL (55-38) at (924) NEW YORK-AL (52-41)
Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 4-10 (-15.20 units) in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-192 vs. CHC)

(925) PITTSBURGH (38-56) at (926) MINNESOTA (45-48)
Trend: MIN is 20-4 (+13.53 units) vs teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-132 vs. PIT)

(927) NEW YORK-NL (53-41) at (928) KANSAS CITY (46-48)
Trend: NYM is 11-3 (+7.35 units) in the shorter pick ’em/favorite line scenario (-110 to -130) with starter Kodai Senga in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (*if they fall into this line range, -137 currently)

Series #11: Texas at Houston, Fri 7/11-Sun 7/13
Trend: Road teams are on a 31-16 (66%, +23.69 units) surge in the in-state AL West rivalry between Houston and Texas.
– The ROI on this trend is 50.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+104 at HOU)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

TEXAS
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 6-26 (19.4%) -19.45 units, ROI: -60.8%
Next betting opportunity: Friday, July 11 at Houston
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+104 at HOU)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR