The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, July 18, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 234-120 for +41.62 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +11.8%.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-110 vs. NYY) 

Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 19-4 (82.6%, +13.99 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022.
– The ROI on this trend is 60.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-137 vs. ATH)

Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 38-10 (+13.27 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in last six seasons (including 24-6 (+7.34 units) in home starts)
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-194 vs. MIL) 

* Teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 35-18 (+18.08 units, ROI: 34.1%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+113 at CHC)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 127-80 for +35.04 units, and an ROI of 16.9%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-110 vs. NYY) 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 103-132 for -30.55 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.0%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+101 vs. KC), TEXAS (-104 vs. DET), MINNESOTA (-167 at COL)

3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 234-120 for +41.62 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +11.8%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-110 vs. NYY)

4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 90-189 for -47.68 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -17.1%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade, and it continued losing big last week while netting -4.97 units.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+137 vs. MIN)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 258-269 for +20.38 units, ROI +3.9%. This comes after a strong +5.8 unit week heading into the break.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+178 at PHI), MIAMI (+101 vs. KC), CINCINNATI (+129 at NYM), ATLANTA (-110 vs. NYY), BALTIMORE (+104 at TB), TEXAS (-104 vs. DET), ST LOUIS (+108 at AZ), HOUSTON (+112 at SEA), MILWAUKEE (+158 at LAD) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 129-133 for -1.0 units (ROI -0.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 65-62, +0.62 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ATHLETICS (+108 at CLE), LA DODGERS (-194 vs. MIL)
3+ games – BOSTON (+113 at CHC), SEATTLE (-137 vs. HOU)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and after a huge week of 18-9 for +7.9 units, it is now 143-107 for +7.47 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+158 at LAD) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): CHICAGO CUBS, KANSAS CITY 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their best overall in divisional games since the start of 2024, going 670-692 (49.2%) for -27.82 units and a ROI of -2.0%. This is about five full percentage points better for return. If you’re looking for a spot where these majorities are even better, try getting behind them when they back the underdogs in these divisional contests. In those games, these have gone 95-106 (47.3%) for -0.62 units and an ROI of -0.3%. This advantage is even greater and an indication that bettors do well when going against the grain.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TAMPA BAY, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, KANSAS CITY, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in 2025. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and an ROI of -13.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 394-303 for +50.79 units and an ROI of 7.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+113 at CHC), SEATTLE (-137 vs HOU), MILWAUKEE (+158 at LAD) 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 194-137 for +26.56 units and an ROI of 8% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-121 at MIA), DETROIT (-116 at TEX) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 309-275 but for -81.12 units and an ROI of -13.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-137 vs. BOS), PITTSBURGH (-163 vs. CWS), TORONTO (-149 vs. SF), CLEVELAND (-137 vs. ATH), NY METS (-158 vs. CIN), TAMPA BAY (-122 vs. BAL), ARIZONA (-131 vs. STL), SEATTLE (-137 vs. HOU) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 349-294 record for +51.94 units and an ROI of 8.1% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+113 at CLE), MILWAUKEE (+158 at LAD)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1852-1763 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -256.11 units. This represents an ROI of -7.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-101 vs. KC) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1842-2338 (44.1%) for -205.16 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, SAN FRANCISCO, LA ANGELS, SAN DIEGO

Home teams that scored well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3742-3297 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -528.95 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, SEATTLE, CLEVELAND, TEXAS, LA DODGERS, ARIZONA 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 552-466 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.25 units, for an ROI of 2.1%.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+137 vs. MIN) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 335-170 (66.3%) for +42.34 units and an ROI of 8.4%!
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-137 vs. HOU)
*WATCH FOR MIAMI vs. KC, -101 CURRENTLY 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 236-246 run (+16.11 units, ROI: 3.3%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-122 vs. BAL)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 213-143 in their last 356 tries (+28.18 units, ROI: 7.9%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+158 at LAD) 

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 28-62 (-11.28 units, ROI: -12.5%) in their last 90 tries.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+158 at LAD) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 114-122 (-56.28 units, ROI: -23.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+113 at CHC) 

Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 35-18 (+18.08 units, ROI: 34.1%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+113 at CHC)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -110 (+27), MILWAUKEE +158 (+18) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO -149 (+38 diff), CLEVELAND -132 (+35), MINNESOTA -167 (+18), ARIZONA -131 (+17), CHICAGO CUBS -137 (+15) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-ATL OVER 8 (+1.5), SD-WSH OVER 8 (+1.2), BOS-CHC OVER 8 (+0.9), CIN-NYM OVER 7.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CWS-PIT UNDER 9 (-1.2)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) SAN DIEGO (52-44) at (952) WASHINGTON (38-58)
Trend: WSH is 43-26 (+12.27 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 vs. SD) 

(953) CINCINNATI (50-47) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (55-42)
Trend: CIN is 18-12 (+7.46 units) vs teams with a winning record with starter Nick Lodolo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+129 at NYM)

Trend: NYM is 33-14 (+11.43 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-158 vs. CIN)

(955) ST LOUIS (51-46) at (956) ARIZONA (47-50)
Trend: AZ not a good bet at home this season (23-25 record, -15.33 units)
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-131 vs. STL) 

(957) MILWAUKEE (56-40) at (958) LOS ANGELES-NL (58-39)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 38-10 (+13.27 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in last six seasons (including 24-6 (+7.34 units) in home starts)
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-194 vs MIL) 

(961) BALTIMORE (43-52) at (962) TAMPA BAY (50-47)
Trend: Under the total is 30-16-2 (+12.40 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-TB (o/u at 9) 

(963) DETROIT (59-38) at (964) TEXAS (48-49)
Trend: DET is 18-7 (+9.62 units) vs. LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-116 at TEX)

Trend: TEX is 7-12 (-4.84 units) as a night underdog between line range of -105 to +120 with Patrick Corbin in the last six seasons
Trend Match (SLIGHT FADE): TEXAS (-104 vs. DET) 

(965) HOUSTON (56-40) at (966) SEATTLE (51-45)
Trend: Under the total is 16-8-1 (+7.20 units) when SEA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 7.5) 

(967) BOSTON (53-45) at (968) CHICAGO-NL (57-39)
Trend: Lucas Giolito is 12-17 in the last 29 against the NL (-7.38 units)
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (+113 at CHC) 

(969) CHICAGO-AL (32-65) at (970) PITTSBURGH (39-58)
Trend: Bailey Falter is 14-7 (+7.44 units) as a home night starter in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-163 vs. CWS) 

(973) SAN FRANCISCO (52-45) at (974) TORONTO (55-41)
Trend: Over the total is 17-9-1 (+7.10 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-TOR (o/u at 8.5) 

(975) KANSAS CITY (47-50) at (976) MIAMI (44-51)
Trend: Under the total is 48-30-1 (+15.00 units) when KC faces RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-MIA (o/u at 8) 

(977) NEW YORK-AL (53-43) at (978) ATLANTA (42-53)
Trend: Under the total is 28-15-3 (+11.50 units) in Yankees’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-ATL (o/u at 8)

(979) MINNESOTA (47-49) at (980) COLORADO (22-74)
Trend: COL is 11-20 (-4.69 units) in the underdog line range of +125 to +150 with starter Kyle Freeland in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+137 vs. MIN)

Series #13: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers, Fri 7/18-Sun 7/20
Trend: FAVORITES are 20-7 (74.1%, +9.01 units) in the last 27 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 33.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-194 vs. MIL) 

Series #16: Athletics at Cleveland, Fri 7/18-Sun 7/20
Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 19-4 (82.6%, +13.99 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022.
– The ROI on this trend is 60.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-137 vs. ATH)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Thursday, July 24)

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