The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, June 20, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 170-89 for +40.28 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +15.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-186 at PIT), NY YANKEES (-296 vs. BAL), MINNESOTA (-163 vs. MIL), HOUSTON (-164 at LAA) 

Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 17-3 (85%, +13.25 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022.
–  The ROI on this trend is 66.3%.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-122 at ATH) 

Trend: Under the total is 35-18-1 (+15.20 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-SF (o/u at 7.5) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 339-282 record for +54.91 units and a ROI of 8.8% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-144 at MIA), MILWAUKEE (+133 at MIN), ARIZONA (-187 at COL) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 528-448 for +1.45 units and a ROI of 0.1% so far in the regular season. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy, playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettor now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -56.75 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, TEXAS, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA, NY METS, ST LOUIS, MINNESOTA, ARIZONA, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS, SAN FRANCISCO 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 98-58 for +27.97 units, and an ROI of 17.9%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the ’24 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. We gained another +4.29 units last week.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-163 vs MIN)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 28-30 for -11.20 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -19.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-190 vs NYM), WASHINGTON (+167 at LAD)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 75-93 for -19.60 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs SEA), ATLANTA (-144 at MIA)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 170-89 for +40.28 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +15.6%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario. This angle is 23-7 for +12.52 units since I introduced it a week-and-a-half ago.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-186 at PIT), NY YANKEES (-296 vs. BAL), MINNESOTA (-163 vs. MIL), HOUSTON (-164 at LAA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 77-160 for -35.40 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.9%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+152 vs. AZ)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 84-24 for +21.67 units, a ROI of 20.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-194 vs. CWS), NY YANKEES (-205 vs. WSH) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 56-21 for +8.02 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-194 vs CWS), NY YANKEES (-205 vs WSH) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. For the season, the record is now 192-217 for +10.69 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+233 at NYY), NY METS (+155 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (+129 at SD) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, 160-185 for -9.27 units.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+129 at SD) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 99-98 for +6.26 units (ROI +3.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (55-51, +2.83 units) are somewhat surprising.
System Match (FADE): 2-games – PHILADELPHIA (-190 vs. NYM) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 108-85 for -2.32 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-144 at MIA), ST LOUIS (-149 vs. CIN), KANSAS CITY (+129 at SD)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data, which was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): ST LOUIS, SAN FRANCISCO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, TEXAS, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY, SAN FRANCISCO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BAL-NYY, CWS-TOR, CLE-ATH 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 378-292 for +47.92 units and an ROI of 7.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-149 at MIA), ST LOUIS (-149 vs CIN), KANSAS CITY (+139 at SD)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 186-131 for +25.93 units and an ROI of 8.2% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-122 at ATH) 

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 108-148 for -38.13 units and a ROI of -14.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+119 vs. ATL), ATHLETICS (+100 vs. CLE) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 300-265 but for -74.81 units and a ROI of -13.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-149 vs. CIN), MINNESOTA (-163 vs. MIL), SAN DIEGO (-158 vs. KC) 

MLB Series Betting System #8: Home favorites opening up an interleague series have gone 144-73 for +3.80 units and an ROI of 1.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-144 vs. SEA), MINNESOTA (-163 vs. MIL), SAN DIEGO (-158 vs. KC), SAN FRANCISCO (-131 vs. BOS) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 339-282 record for +54.91 units and an ROI of 8.8% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-144 at MIA), MILWAUKEE (+133 at MIN), ARIZONA (-187 at COL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1808-1723 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.88 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-163 vs. MIL), ARIZONA (-187 at COL) 

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1794-2286 (43.9%) for -202.77 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, TEXAS, CLEVELAND 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3667-3217 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -496.33 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO, ST LOUIS, PITTSBURGH, ATHLETICS, SAN DIEGO 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 539-457 (54.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +18.42 units, for an ROI of 1.8%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-205 vs WSH) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 329-165 (66.5%) for +43.89 units and an ROI of 8.9%!
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-163 vs MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 33-93 skid (-38.96 units, ROI -30.9%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at TOR) 

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 66-137 skid (-40.45 units, ROI: -19.9%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at TOR) 

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-19 (+12.01 units, ROI: 32.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 79-165 (-65.56 units, ROI: -26.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.

System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at TOR)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 229-235 run (+18.53 units, ROI: 4%).
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at TOR)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE +228 (+48 diff), LA ANGELS +134 (+16), NY METS +164 (+15) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -122 (+28 diff), ATLANTA -144 (+18) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CLE-ATH OVER 9 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-TOR UNDER 9 (-0.8), BAL-NYY UNDER 9 (-0.5) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(953) NEW YORK-NL (45-30) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (45-30)
Trend: Under the total is 13-4 (+8.60 units) when NYM is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-PHI (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Zach Wheeler is 16-3 (+10.75 units) as a home favorite between -165 and -190 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-181 vs NYM) 

(955) CINCINNATI (39-36) at (956) ST LOUIS (40-35)
Trend: Over the total is 26-12 (+12.80 units) in Cardinals’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-STL (o/u at 9) 

(957) ARIZONA (37-37) at (958) COLORADO (17-58)
Trend: COL is 6-4 (+3.10 units) vs. Arizona with starter Austin Gomber in last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+152 vs. AZ) 

(961) BALTIMORE (32-42) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (43-31)
Trend: Under the total is 15-7-2 (+7.30 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-NYY (o/u at 9) 

(965) CHICAGO-AL (23-52) at (966) TORONTO (40-34)
Trend: TOR is 24-14 (+9.55 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-1.5 vs. CWS) 

(969) CLEVELAND (37-36) at (970) ATHLETICS (31-46)
Trend: CLE is 26-7 (+18.98 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-122 at ATH)

(971) SEATTLE (37-36) at (972) CHICAGO-NL (45-29)
Trend: CHC is 39-19 (+12.60 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-144 vs. SEA) 

(975) MILWAUKEE (40-35) at (976) MINNESOTA (37-37)
Trend: Under the total is 29-11-2 (+16.90 units) in Brewers’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-MIN (o/u at 8) 

(979) BOSTON (39-37) at (980) SAN FRANCISCO (42-33)
Trend: Under the total is 35-18-1 (+15.20 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-SF (o/u at 7.5)

Series #12: Cleveland at Athletics, Fri 6/20-Sun 6/22
Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 17-3 (85%, +13.25 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022.
–   The ROI on this trend is 66.3%.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-122 at ATH)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

ATLANTA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 15-18 (45.5%) -6.72 units, ROI: -20.4%      Next betting opportunity: Friday, June 20 at Miami
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-144 at MIA)

SAN DIEGO   
Letdown after series vs. LA DODGERS: 18-18 (50%) -7.54 units, ROI: -20.9%     
Next betting opportunity: Friday, June 20 vs. Kansas City
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-158 vs. KC)

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