Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, July 7, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: CLE not good vs. LH starters (7-19 record, -12.29 units) this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+113 at HOU)
Trend: Home teams are on a 17-4 (81%, +12.54 units) run in the Giants-Phillies National League series
– The ROI on this trend is 59.7%.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+114 vs PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 348-289 record for +57.09 units and an ROI of 9% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-124 at DET)
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 209-141 in their last 350 tries (+27.15 units, ROI: 7.8%).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-171 at CWS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 93-121 for -31.69 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+114 at CIN), DETROIT (+102 vs TB)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 206-111 for +41.68 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.1%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+113 vs. LAD), TEXAS (-138 at LAA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 87-180 for -42.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -17.3%. This is the double whammy scenario to fade.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+186 at BOS)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent.
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 96-30 for +20.27 units, an ROI of 16.1%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-232 vs. COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 64-26 for +5.28 units. We remain just a couple of losses away from going into the usual negative territory. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-232 vs. COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 232-266 for +11.75 units, ROI +2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+102 vs. TB), MIAMI (+114 at CIN), PITTSBURGH (+123 at KC), MILWAUKEE (+113 vs. LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (+114 vs. PHI)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 117-125 for -3.90 units (ROI -1.6%).
System Match (FADE): 2-games – PHILADELPHIA (-138 at SF)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 125-97 for +0.13 units, after having recovered from a very slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+102 vs. TB), BOSTON (-232 vs. COL), TORONTO (-169 at CWS), HOUSTON (-137 vs CLE)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, KANSAS CITY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up and down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 were just 393-334 (54.1%) for -90.59 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, CINCINNATI, BOSTON, LA DODGERS, TORONTO, KANSAS CITY, HOUSTON, TEXAS, SAN DIEGO, PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and a ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-KC
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 387-299 for +48.11 units and an ROI of 7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+102 vs. TB), TORONTO (-171 at CWS), BOSTON (-232 vs. COL), HOUSTON (-137 vs. CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 192-137 for +24.56 units and an ROI of 7.5% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-124 at DET)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 306-273 but for -81.37 units and an ROI of -14.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-138 vs. MIA), KANSAS CITY (-150 vs. PIT), HOUSTON (-137 vs. CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 348-289 record for +57.09 units and an ROI of 9% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-124 at DET)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1829-2319 (44.1%) for -199.49 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+113 at HOU), MIAMI (+114 at CIN), LA DODGERS (-138 at MIL), ARIZONA (+104 at SD), PITTSBURGH (+123 at KC), TEXAS (-138 at LAA)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3718-3278 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -527.59 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+102 vs. TB), BOSTON (-232 vs. COL), HOUSTON (-137 vs. CLE), SAN FRANCISCO (+114 vs. PHI)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 34-93 skid (-37.34 units, ROI -29.4%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+113 at HOU)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-21 (+10.01 units, ROI: 25.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 81-166 (-63.94 units, ROI: -25.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+113 at HOU)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 233-241 run (+17.76 units, ROI: 3.7%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+113 at HOU)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 209-141 in their last 350 tries (+27.15 units, ROI: 7.8%).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-171 at CWS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +186 (+21 diff), DETROIT +102 (+20), LA ANGELS +114 (+17)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TORONTO -169 (+21 diff), HOUSTON -137 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-MIL OVER 7.5 (+1.0), CLE-HOU OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PIT-KC UNDER 9 (-0.8)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) MIAMI (40-48) at (902) CINCINNATI (46-44)
Trend: Brady Singer is 8-10 (-7.26 units) in his last 18 games as a favorite in -135 to -175 line range
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-138 vs MIA)
(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (56-35) at (904) MILWAUKEE (50-40)
Trend: Under the total is 26-16-2 (+8.40 units) in Brewers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-MIL (o/u at 7.5)
(905) ARIZONA (44-46) at (906) SAN DIEGO (48-41)
Trend: SD is 11-17 (-8.82 units) in the -102 to -130 line range in night games with starter Yu Darvish in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-126 vs AZ)
(907) PHILADELPHIA (53-37) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (49-42)
Trend: PHI is 13-20 (-10.84 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-138 at SF)
(913) CLEVELAND (40-48) at (914) HOUSTON (55-35)
Trend: CLE not good vs LH starters (7-19 record, -12.29 units) this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+113 at HOU)
(917) COLORADO (21-69) at (918) BOSTON (46-45)
Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 5-19 (-8.32 units) as large underdog of +175 or more
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+186 at BOS)
(919) PITTSBURGH (38-53) at (920) KANSAS CITY (43-48)
Trend: Under the total is 33-19-1 (+12.10 units) in Royals’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-KC (o/u at 9)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #14: Philadelphia at San Francisco, Mon 7/7-Wed 7/9
Trend: Home teams are on a 17-4 (81%, +12.54 units) run in the Giants-Phillies National League series
– The ROI on this trend is 59.7%.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+114 vs. PHI)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, July 11)
