Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, October 1, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Wildcard totals have gone 29-16 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +11.3 units, or an ROI of 25.1%.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all 4 games
Trend: Luis Severino is 7-19 (-10.47 units) as an underdog in last three seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+120 at MIL)
Trend: Under the total is 9-3 in the last 12 of the head-to-head series between Atlanta-San Diego
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in ATL-SD (o/u at 7)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 287-243 (54.2%) for +37.68 units and an ROI of 7.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-170 vs. ATL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high volume set of games so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, BALTIMORE, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full ’23 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the ’24 first half results:
– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 UNITS and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): NONE YET (watch for SAN DIEGO vs. ATL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+130 at HOU), MILWAUKEE (-142 vs. NYM)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, BALTIMORE, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high volume set of games so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, BALTIMORE, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the 2024 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+130 at BAL), DETROIT (+130 at HOU), ATLANTA (+145 at SD)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em’s) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record, for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+130 at BAL), DETROIT (+130 at HOU)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE HOUSTON (-155 vs. DET)
3-games – FADE BALTIMORE (-155 vs. KC)
MLB Betting Trends and Systems for the Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 59-62 SU (-28.5 units, ROI: -23.6%)
System Match (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO
Series wins status
Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 69-67 on run lines (+12.35 units, ROI: 9.1%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 39-32 SU (+15.08 units, ROI: 21.2%) and 45-26 on run lines (+12.45 units, ROI: 17.5%) in playoff games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY, DETROIT, HOUSTON, NY METS, ATLANTA
Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 56-56, Overs have produced a return of +19.55 units, a ROI of 17.5%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in all 4 games
Wild Card Round Angles
2022 was the first season in which the wild card round expanded to a 3-game series
- – Wild Card visitors priced at -110 to +160 underdogs are on a 15-14 SU (+6.58 units, ROI: 22.7%) and 19-10 (+2.9 units, ROI: 10%) surge since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY, DETROIT, NY METS, ATLANTA
– Wild Card totals have gone 29-16 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +11.3 units, or an ROI of 25.1%.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all 4 games
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1619-2070 (43.9%) for -177.52 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE): NY METS (+120 at MIL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3404-3001 (53.1%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -478.00 units and a ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE): BALTIMORE (-155 vs KC)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 965-836 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +13.80 units for backers and an ROI of 0.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-142 vs. NYM), SAN DIEGO (-170 vs. ATL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 497-418 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +22.94 units, for an ROI of 2.5%.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-142 vs. NYM)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 287-243 (54.2%) for +37.68 units and an ROI of 7.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-170 vs. ATL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT +130 (+25 diff), ATLANTA +145 (+21 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-BAL OVER 6.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(937) KANSAS CITY (86-76) at (938) BALTIMORE (91-71)
Trend: KC slight Under during the day (22-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 6.5)
Trend: BAL is 9-3 in head-to-head series with KC in the last seasons
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-148 vs. KC)
(939) DETROIT (86-76) at (940) HOUSTON (88-73)
Trend: DET better vs. LH starters (21-12, +8.95 units)
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+130 at HOU)
(941) NEW YORK-NL (89-73) at (942) MILWAUKEE (93-69)
Trend: NYM worse during the day (30-37, -14.37 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS (+120 at MIL)
Trend: UNDER the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: MIL has a 12-2 record in the last 14 games vs. NYM
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-142 vs NYM)
(943) ATLANTA (89-73) at (944) SAN DIEGO (93-69)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. RH starters (38-71 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
Trend: Under the total is 9-3 in the last 12 of the series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(939) DETROIT (86-76) at (940) HOUSTON (88-73)
Trend: HOU is 12-3 (+5.05 units) as a HOME DAY game favorite of -150 or higher by starter Framber Valdez
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-155 vs DET)
(941) NEW YORK-NL (89-73) at (942) MILWAUKEE (93-69)
Trend: Luis Severino is 7-19 (-10.47 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+120 at MIL)
Trend: MIL is 8-12 (-12.99 units) in September/October with starter Freddy Peralta in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-142 vs NYM)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ATLANTA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 15-17 (46.9%) -5.72 units, ROI: -17.9%
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (+142 at SD)
