The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, October 18, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board. 


 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Teams looking to close out an LCS series in Game 5 have typically failed to do so, going 5-10 SU (-5 units, ROI: -33.3%) and 4-11 (-9.2 units, ROI: -61.3%) on run lines in their last 15 tries
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS 

On LCS Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 29-7-1 for +21.3 units, an ROI of 59.2%.
System Match: PLAY OVER in NYY-CLE (o/u at 7.5) 

Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 32-53 SU (-12.87 units, ROI: -15.1%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+110 vs LAD)

Trend: CLE is 2-11 (-9.66 units) against teams with a win percentage of 55% or higher by starter Gavin Williams in last two seasons
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NONE YET 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-130 at NYM), NY YANKEES (-122 at CLE) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the ’24 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically, and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
*In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 9-7 for +3.92 units.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick em’s) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
*In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 7-5 for +2.82 units.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY)

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line Angles
Road favorites are on a 13-18 SU skid (-9.40 units, ROI: -30.3%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-122 at CLE), LA DODGERS (-130 at NYM) 

Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 50-57 SU (-22.08 units, ROI: -20.6%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+110 vs. LAD)

Stats from last game trends
 MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 52-44 SU (+5.91 units, ROI: 6.2%) surge and 53-43 on run lines (+8.13 units, ROI: 8.5%) since ’14.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 32-53 SU (-12.87 units, ROI: -15.1%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+110 vs. LAD)

Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 116 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 53-63 SU (-34.60 units, ROI: -29.8%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023!
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-130 at NYM)

In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 52-47 SU (+14.40 units, ROI: 14.5%) and 63-36 on run lines (+17.20 units, ROI: 17.4%) in playoff games.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS 

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 75-70, Overs have produced a return of +23.66 units, an ROI of 16.3%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders. 

LCS Round Angles
Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, though, going 41-35 (+16.50 units, ROI: 21.7%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+110 vs. LAD), CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY)

Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 39-59 SU (-23.94 units, ROI: -24.4%).
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+110 vs. LAD)

The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same series WIN in which they scored 6 runs or more, as those teams are just 24-36 SU (-17.98 units, ROI: -30%) since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-130 at NYM), CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY)

Game 4 underdogs are on a big run of 25-16 SU (+15.64 units, ROI: -38.1%) and 29-12 RL (+8.90 units, ROI: 28.7%) run since 2003 in the LCS round.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND

Game 4 teams trailing in their LCS series have really struggled of late, going 11-27 SU (-21.61 units, ROI: -56.9%) and 12-26 (-18.45 units, ROI: -48.6%) on run lines since 2005
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND

On Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 29-7-1 for +21.3 units, an ROI of 59.2%.
System Match: PLAY OVER in NYY-CLE (o/u at 7.5)

Teams looking to close out series in Game 5 have typically failed to do so, going 5-10 SU (-5 units, ROI: -33.3%) and 4-11 (-9.2 units, ROI: -61.3%) on run lines in their last 15 tries
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 367-352 (51%) for +23.88 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (+110 vs. LAD) 

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1694-1596 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -215.50 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-130 at NYM)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3411-3010 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -483.73 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY YANKEES -122 (+14 diff) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.3 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-NYM OVER 7.5 (+0.3)

Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(965) NEW YORK-AL (99-70) at (966) CLEVELAND (96-73)
Trend: NYY has an 18-8 record vs CLE in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-122 at CLE)

Trend: NYY better vs. RH starters (78-45, +10.62 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-122 at CLE)

Trend: CLE good at home (53-31, +8.88 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+102 vs NYY)

Trend: Over the total is 11-4-1 when CLE is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5) 

(967) LOS ANGELES-NL (104-67) at (968) NEW YORK-NL (95-78)
Trend: LAD trending Over vs. NL teams (77-44 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: LAD better bet vs. LH starters (37-18, +4.46 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-130 at NYM)

Trend: NYM good at night (62-40, +20.27 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (+110 vs. LAD) 

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(965) NEW YORK-AL (99-70) at (966) CLEVELAND (96-73)
Trend: CLE is 2-11 (-9.66 units) against teams with a win percentage of 55% or higher by starter Gavin Williams in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY)

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