The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, October 3, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

– Wildcard totals have gone 34-19 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +13.08 units, or an ROI of 24.7%.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYM-MIL (o/u at 7.5) 

Trend: NYM better at night this season (59-37, +20.30 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (+110 at MIL)

– Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in postseason series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 70-70 on run lines (+10.49 units, ROI: 7.5%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE RL (-1.5 vs. NYM)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full ’23 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first half results:

–   Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NY METS (+110 at MIL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-130 vs. NYM) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

NO QUALIFYING BULLPEN SYSTEMS TODAY

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.

Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 61-67 SU (-34.16 units, ROI: -26.7%)
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-130 vs. NYM)

Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a win in a series game have been a better option, 66-51 SU (+1.6 units, ROI: 1.4%) in that same time span.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-130 vs. NYM) 

Series wins status
Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series’ that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 70-70 on run lines (+10.49 units, ROI: 7.5%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE RL (-1.5 vs. NYM) 

Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 44-37 SU (+15.28 units, ROI: 18.9%) and 51-30 on run lines (+13.12 units, ROI: 16.2%) in playoff games.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+110 at MIL) 

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 59-61, Overs have produced a return of +17.25 units, an ROI of 14.4%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
System Match: PLAY OVER in NYM-MIL (o/u at 7.5)

Wild Card Round Angles

2022 was the first season in which the wild card round expanded to a 3-game series

–  Wild Card visitors priced at -110 to +160 underdogs are on a 20-16 SU (+11.00 units, ROI: 30.6%) and 25-11 RL (+6.92 units, ROI: 19.2%) surge since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+110 at MIL) 

–  Wild Card totals have gone 34-19 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +13.08 units, or an ROI of 24.7%.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYM-MIL (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3404-3002 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -479.48 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-130 vs. NYM)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

NO QUALIFYING STRENGTH RATING DIFFERENCES TODAY 

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(929) NEW YORK-NL (90-74) at (930) MILWAUKEE (94-70)
Trend: NYM better at night (59-37, +20.30 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (+110 at MIL)

Trend: NYM trending Over as a road underdog (27-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: Milwaukee has a 13-3 record in the last 16 games vs. NY Mets
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-130 vs. NYM)

Trend: Milwaukee is 4-7 in postseason elimination games since 2008
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-130 vs. NYM)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(929) NEW YORK-NL (90-74) at (930) MILWAUKEE (94-70)

Stat: Jose Quintana’s postseason numbers – 18.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 15 SO, 13 HA. Team has lost the game in his last three postseason starts

Stat: Tobias Myers making his first postseason start for MIL

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