Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, October 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams playing as Underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 33-55 SU (-13.77 units, ROI: -15.6%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
WORLD SERIES system #5:
World Series teams have struggled to put back-to-back wins together recently, going 10-22 in the game following up a WS win (-16.51 Units, -51.6% ROI)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 UNITS and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
Trend: LAD has a record of 6-13 this season as a ROAD underdog
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 Units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 UNITS and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs LAD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the ’24 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically, and we will be looking for a bounce back in ‘25. *In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 10-10 for +2.16 units.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record, for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. *In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 8-8 for +1.06 units.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
MLB Betting Trends & Systems for the Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key MLB betting trend results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to ’18 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 74-73 SU (-29.89 units, ROI: -20.3%)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
Series wins status
Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 37-41 SU (-24.21 units, ROI: -31%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
Stats from last game trends
MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 53-46 SU (+4.61 units, ROI: 4.7%) surge and 54-45 on run lines (+6.95 units, ROI: 7%) since ’14.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES
Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 33-55 SU (-13.77 units, ROI: -15.6%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 79-73, Overs have produced a return of +24.45 units, an ROI of 16.1%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
Three Top World Series MLB Betting Trend Systems
Over the last 20+ years of World Series action, several nice betting systems have emerged. You know you’re going to bet the games, why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently?
WORLD SERIES system #1:
Home field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series action, with hosts on a 19-28 slide in the last 47 opportunities dating back to 2016 (-17.17 Units, -36.5% ROI)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
WORLD SERIES system #4:
Overall, on totals, there has been a very slight lean to the Over in World Series games over the last 15 years, however in games with totals of 8 or higher, Under holds an edge of 20-14-1 in that span (+3.65 Units, 10.7% ROI)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-NYY (o/u at 8)
WORLD SERIES system #5:
World Series teams have struggled to put back-to-back wins together recently, going 10-22 in the game following up a WS win (-16.51 Units, -51.6% ROI)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1695-1598 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -216.80 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3413-3012 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -483.73 units and a ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO MORE QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS THIS SEASON
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (5 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS +124 (+5 diff)
Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(909) LOS ANGELES-NL (108-69) at (910) NEW YORK-AL (102-73)
Trend: NYY good record vs. RH starters (81-48, +10.14 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
Trend: Gerrit Cole has been solid in the postseason since 2022 (7 appearances, 40.2 IP, 2.88 ERA)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
Trend: LAD trending Over at night (79-47 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
Trend: LAD has a record of 6-13 this season as a road underdog
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
Trend: Over the total is 11-7-1 this season when LAD is a road underdog
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
