The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, October 7, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Road favorites in the postseason are on a 7-15 SU skid (-11.98 units, ROI: -54.4%)
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+110 at CLE)

Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 29-49 SU (-12.47 units, ROI: -16%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+130 at NYY)

Trend: CLE trending Over as home underdog (9-3-1 O/U) this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in DET-CLE (o/u at 6)

Stat: Carlos Rodon’s postseason stats (2.2 IP, 4 HA, 4 ER, 4 BB)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-155 vs. KC) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first half results:

–  Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): DETROIT (-130 at CLE)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 UNITS and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-130 at CLE), NY YANKEES (-155 vs. KC) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the ’24 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
*In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 5-3 for +3.78 units.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+110 vs. DET)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record, for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
*In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 3-2 for +1.68 units.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+110 vs. DET)

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one. 

Overall MLB Postseason Trends 

Line Angles
Road favorites are on a 7-15 SU skid (-11.98 units, ROI: -54.4%)
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+110 at CLE) 

Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 64-69 SU (-33.96 units, ROI: -25.5%)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-155 vs. KC) 

Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a win in a series game have been a better option, 66-53 SU (-1.20 units, ROI: -1%) in that same time span.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+110 vs. DET), NY YANKEES (-155 vs. KC) 

Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, home-field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 65-42 SU (+17.44 units, ROI: 16.3%) and 56-51 on run lines (+13.9 units, ROI: 13%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES 

Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 41-53 SU (-33.43 units, ROI: -35.6%) and 28-66 on run lines (-29.15 units, ROI: -31%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-130 at CLE)

Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 29-49 SU (-12.47 units, ROI: -16%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+130 at NYY)

Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 108 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 48-61 SU (-36.5 units, ROI: -33.5%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in ’23!
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-155 vs. KC)

 In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 46-40 SU (+14.93 units, ROI: 17.4%) and 55-31 on run lines (+15.20 units, ROI: 17.7%) in playoff games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, KANSAS CITY 

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 65-62, Overs have produced a return of +22.25 units, an ROI of 17.5%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
System Match: PLAY OVER in both games

Divisional Round Angles
Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 54-33 SU (+7.89 units, ROI: 9.1%) and 47-40 on run lines (+15.49 units, ROI: 17.8%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same-series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 37-24 SU (+16.04 units, ROI: 26.3%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+110 vs. DET)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1621-2072 (43.9%) for -177.04 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE): DETROIT (-130 at CLE)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3405-3005 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -483.20 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+110 vs DET), NY YANKEES (-155 vs. KC) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(965) DETROIT (88-77) at (966) CLEVELAND (93-69)
Trend: CLE good vs. LH starters this season (30-11, +17.83 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+110 vs. DET)

Trend: CLE trending Over as home underdog (9-3-1 O/U) this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 6) 

(967) KANSAS CITY (88-77) at (968) NEW YORK-AL (95-68)
Trend: KC trending Under on the road (32-47 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: NYY not as good vs. LH starters (21-23, -20.11 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-155 vs. KC)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years. 

(965) DETROIT (88-77) at (966) CLEVELAND (93-69)
Trend: DET is 0-3 in the last three Tarik Skubal starts against Cleveland
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-130 at CLE) 

(967) KANSAS CITY (88-77) at (968) NEW YORK-AL (95-68)
Trend: Carlos Rodon’s postseason stats (2.2 IP, 4 HA, 4 ER, 4 BB)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-155 vs KC)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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