The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, October 9, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board. 

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Alex Cobb is 2-12 (-12.03 units) in road games in August/September/October in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-110 at DET)

Road favorites in the postseason are on an 8-16 SU skid (-12.10 units, ROI: -50.4%)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-118 at KC)

The last three-and-a-half MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 67-64, Overs have produced a return of +22.20 units, an ROI of 16.9%.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in all 4 games 

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 38-26 SU (+14.92 units, ROI: 23.3%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-110 vs. PHI) 

Trend: LAD has a record of 4-12 as a road underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+120 at SD)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-110 at DET), NY METS (-110 vs. PHI), SAN DIEGO (-148 vs. LAD) 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-148 vs. LAD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, NY METS, NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the 2024 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record, for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
*In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 6-5 for +2.78 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-110 vs. PHI), CLEVELAND (-110 at DET), LA DODGERS (+124 at SD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record, for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
*In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 4-4 for +0.68 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-110 vs. PHI), CLEVELAND (-110 at DET), LA DODGERS (+124 at SD)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
 I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle.
*In the 2024 playoffs, those on two-game winning streaks are 0-3 for -3.42 units, and those on three-game winnings streaks are 0-2 for -2.48 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SAN DIEGO (-148 vs LAD)

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one. 

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line Angles
Road favorites are on an 8-16 SU skid (-12.10 units, ROI: -50.4%)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-118 at KC)

Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 65-70 SU (-34.51 units, ROI: -25.6%)
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-148 vs LAD) 

Series wins status
 For teams leading in a series, home-field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 65-44 SU (+14.89 units, ROI: 13.7%) and 56-53 on run lines (+11.10 units, ROI: 10.2%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, SAN DIEGO 

Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series’ that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 73-74 on run lines (+10.63 units, ROI: 7.2%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+1.5 vs. CLE), KANSAS CITY (+1.5 vs, NYY) 

Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 42-53 SU (-32.43 units, ROI: -34.1%) and 29-66 on run lines (-27.65 units, ROI: -29.1%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES

Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 30-49 SU (-11.17 units, ROI: -14.1%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-102 vs. NYY)

Trends based upon regular season records
 In the last 108 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 48-62 SU (-38.05 units, ROI: -34.6%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in ’23!
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-118 at KC)

In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 49-40 SU (+18.23 units, ROI: 20.5%) and 58-31 on run lines (+18.70 units, ROI: 21%) in playoff games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, NY METS, KANSAS CITY

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 67-64, Overs have produced a return of +22.20 units, an ROI of 16.9%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in all 4 games

Divisional Round Angles
 Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 56-35 SU (+7.34 units, ROI: 8.1%) and 48-43 on run lines (+12.69 units, ROI: 13.9%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, NY METS, KANSAS CITY, SAN DIEGO

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 38-26 SU (+14.92 units, ROI: 23.3%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-110 vs. PHI)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1622-2073 (43.9%) for -177.04 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-110 at DET), PHILADELPHIA (-110 at NYM), NY YANKEES (-118 at KC)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3407-3007 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -483.75 units and a ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-110 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (-148 vs. LAD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS +120 (+19 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-SD OVER 8 (+0.4 diff)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(905) PHILADELPHIA (96-69) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (93-75)
Trend: NYM better at night (61-37, +22.35 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-110 vs PHI) 

(907) CLEVELAND (93-70) at (908) DETROIT (89-77)
Trend: CLE better during the day (36-23, +12.16 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-110 at DET) 

(909) NEW YORK-AL (95-69) at (910) KANSAS CITY (89-77)
Trend: KC slight Under vs. RH starters (53-70 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8) 

(911) LOS ANGELES-NL (99-66) at (912) SAN DIEGO (97-70)
Trend: LAD trending Over vs. divisional teams (36-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

Trend: LAD has a record of 4-12 as a road underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+120 at SD) 

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(905) PHILADELPHIA (96-69) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (93-75)
Trend: PHI is 16-8 (+8.11 units) in line range -115 to +115 with starter Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-110 at NYM) 

(907) CLEVELAND (93-70) at (908) DETROIT (89-77)
Trend: Alex Cobb is 2-12 (-12.03 units) in road games in August/September/October in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-110 at DET) 

(909) NEW YORK-AL (95-69) at (910) KANSAS CITY (89-77)
Stat: Seth Lugo pretty good in postseason play (4 appearances, 6.1 IP, 1.42 ERA)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-102 vs. NYY) 

(911) LOS ANGELES-NL (99-66) at (912) SAN DIEGO (97-70)
Stat: Dylan Cease not great in postseason (3 appearances, 6.0 IP, 12.00 ERA, 5 BB)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (-142 vs. LAD)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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