The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, July 19, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: CHC is 25-4 (+19.73 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs. BOS) 

* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 336-170 (66.4%) for +43.34 units and an ROI of 8.6%!
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-123 vs. BAL) 

Trend: Under the total is 43-24-1 (+16.60 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-TOR (o/u at 8) 

* Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 214-143 in their last 357 tries (+29.85 units, ROI: 8.4%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+118 at LAD)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 128-80 for +36.04 units, and an ROI of 17.3%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+108 at PHI), MILWAUKEE (+118 at LAD) 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 105-133 for -30.25 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+107 vs. KC), TEXAS (-114 vs. DET), CLEVELAND (-143 vs. ATH), ATLANTA (+103 vs. NYY), MINNESOTA (-192 at COL), HOUSTON (+104 at SEA)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 235-120 for +42.62 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +12%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-118 at TOR), CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs. BOS), MILWAUKEE (+118 at LAD)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 91-189 for -46.29 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -16.5%! This is the double whammy scenario to FADE.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+118 vs. SD), ATHLETICS (+118 at CLE), COLORADO (+156 vs. MIN) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 101-30 for +24.6 units, an ROI of 18.8%.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-192 at COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 68-25 for +11.22 units. After a 4-0 week, we are further away from going into the usual negative territory. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-192 at COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 262-272 for +23.05 units, ROI +4.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+107 vs. KC), CINCINNATI (+147 at NYM), LA ANGELS (+108 at PHI), BALTIMORE (+104 at TB), ATLANTA (+103 vs. NYY), MILWAUKEE (+118 at LAD), HOUSTON (+104 at SEA) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 129-135 for -4.05 units (ROI -1.5%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 66-63, +0.62 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ARIZONA (-101 vs. STL)
3+ games – SEATTLE (-126 vs. HOU) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. After a huge week-and-a-half of 19-9 for +9.57 units, it is now 144-107 for +9.14 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+107 vs. KC), CINCINNATI (+147 at NYM), CLEVELAND (-143 vs. ATH), CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs. BOS), MILWAUKEE (+118 at LAD)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): TORONTO, PITTSBURGH, ST LOUIS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their best overall in divisional games since the start of 2024, going 670-692 (49.2%) for -27.82 units and an ROI of -2.0%. This is about five full percentage points better for return. If you’re looking for a spot where these majorities are even better, try getting behind them when they back the underdogs in these divisional contests. In those games, these have gone 95-106 (47.3%) for -0.62 units and an ROI of -0.3%. This advantage is even greater and an indication that bettors do well when going against the grain.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TAMPA BAY, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, KANSAS CITY, PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS, MINNESOTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in 2025. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and an ROI of -13.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY handle TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-TB

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 405-387 (51.1%) for +24.65 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.1%.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-137 vs. CWS) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1853-1763 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -255.11 units. This represents an ROI of -7.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-123 vs BAL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+112 at PIT)

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1844-2343 (44%) for -208.06 units and a ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+123 at CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (-120 at TOR), BALTIMORE (+101 at TB), DETROIT (-108 at TEX), HOUSTON (+101 at SEA), MILWAUKEE (+118 at LAD) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3747-3298 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -526.00 units and a ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-132 vs. LAA), MIAMI (+107 vs. KC), CLEVELAND (-137 vs. ATH), ATLANTA (+103 vs. NYY), TAMPA BAY (-123 vs. BAL), COLORADO (+150 vs. MIN), ARIZONA (-101 vs. STL), SEATTLE (-123 vs. HOU) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 336-170 (66.4%) for +43.34 units and an ROI of 8.6%!
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-123 vs. BAL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 214-143 in their last 357 tries (+29.85 units, ROI: 8.4%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+118 at LAD) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA -101 (+25 diff), MIAMI +107 (+19) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO -143 (+32 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -149 (+27), MINNESOTA -192 (+18), TAMPA BAY -126 (+15) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-WSH OVER 9 (+0.5), NYY-ATL OVER 9.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-NYM UNDER 9 (-0.6), KC-MIA UNDER 8.5 (-0.5) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) CINCINNATI (51-47) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (55-43)
Trend: CIN is 1-8 (-6.62 units) as a road underdog vs NL opponents with starter Nick Martinez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+147 at NYM)

Trend: NYM is 33-15 (+9.86 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-181 vs CIN) 

(903) SAN DIEGO (53-44) at (904) WASHINGTON (38-59)
Trend: Over the total is 13-5-1 (+7.65 units) in night games against teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Mitchell Parker since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SD-WSH (o/u at 9) 

(905) ST LOUIS (51-47) at (906) ARIZONA (48-50)
Trend: AZ not a good bet at HOME this season (24-25 record, -14.33 units)
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-101 vs STL) 

(909) DETROIT (59-39) at (910) TEXAS (49-49)
Trend: Under the total is 32-14 (+16.60 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-TEX (o/u at 8.5) 

(911) BALTIMORE (43-53) at (912) TAMPA BAY (51-47)
Trend: BAL is 18-4 (+15.41 units) in the last 22 divisional games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+101 at TB)

Trend: Under the total is 14-5 (+8.35 units) when TB faces teams with a <= 0.500 win pct with starter Zach Littell since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: Under the total is 30-17-2 (+11.30 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-TB (o/u at 9) 

(913) ATHLETICS (41-58) at (914) CLEVELAND (47-49)
Trend: Luis Severino is 12-35 (-20.51 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+113 at CLE)

(917) SAN FRANCISCO (52-46) at (918) TORONTO (56-41)
Trend: Under the total is 43-24-1 (+16.60 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-TOR (o/u at 8) 

(919) KANSAS CITY (47-51) at (920) MIAMI (45-51)
Trend: Under the total is 48-31-1 (+13.90 units) when KC faces RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-MIA (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Cal Quantrill is 22-9 (+12.25 units) vs AL Central teams in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+107 vs KC) 

(921) LOS ANGELES-AL (48-49) at (922) PHILADELPHIA (55-42)
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 20-8 (+6.59 units) as a home favorite of -130 or higher in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-132 vs. LAA) 

(923) CHICAGO-AL (33-65) at (924) PITTSBURGH (39-59)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 6-19 (-11.21 units) as a night underdog of +100 or worse in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+112 at PIT) 

(925) NEW YORK-AL (53-44) at (926) ATLANTA (43-53)
Trend: ATL is just 3-13 (-9.65 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+103 vs NYY) 

(927) BOSTON (53-46) at (928) CHICAGO-NL (58-39)
Trend: CHC is 25-4 (+19.73 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win percentage with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs BOS) 

Series #16: Athletics at Cleveland, Fri 7/18-Sun 7/20
Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 20-4 (83.3%, +14.99 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022.
– The ROI on this trend is 62.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-137 vs. ATH)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Thursday, July 24)

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