Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, July 5, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Max Scherzer is 21-6 (+11.15 units) in the last 27 day games starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-185 vs LAA)
Trend: WSH is awful as a ML favorite (7-19 record, -17.31 units) this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-113 vs BOS)
This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 202-110 for +38.77 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +12.4%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+122 at LAD)
Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 108-120 (-59.05 units, ROI: -25.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-156 vs. STL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 117-74 for +30.47 units, and an ROI of 16%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. We gained +4.20 units again over the last twelve days.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-143 at NYM), HOUSTON (+122 at LAD)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 90-118 for -30.89 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+104 vs. TB), CHICAGO CUBS (-156 vs. STL), ATLANTA (-150 vs. BAL), MIAMI (+119 vs. MIL), CLEVELAND (+107 vs. DET)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 202-110 for +38.77 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +12.4%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+122 at LAD)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 86-177 for -40.23 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15.3%. This is the double whammy scenario to fade.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (-119 vs. CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 226-259 for +11.39 units, ROI +2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+104 vs. TB), CINCINNATI (+146 at PHI), BOSTON (-108 at WSH), KANSAS CITY (+118 at AZ), CLEVELAND (+107 vs. DET), HOUSTON (+122 at LAD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-102 at COL), TEXAS (+109 at SD), PITTSBURGH (+141 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 114-125 for -7.18 units (ROI -3%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so it’s good to see this angle finally coming around as we just passed midseason. After two-and-a-half bad weeks in a row (around -9.50 units), this year’s record is looking more and more like usual, 61-59, +0.52 units.
System Match (FADE): 3-games – NY METS (+118 vs. NYY)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 123-96 for -0.22 units, after having recovered from a very slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-156 vs. STL), TORONTO (-185 vs. LAA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettor afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): CHICAGO WHITE SOX
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS, COLORADO, SAN DIEGO, ATHLETICS, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 were just 393-334 (54.1%) for -90.59 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), the majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BAL-ATL, CWS-COL, SF-ATH
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 401-382 (51.2%) for +25.83 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-113 vs. BOS), LA DODGERS (-148 vs. HOU)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1837-1747 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -251.32 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, ATHLETICS
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1823-2316 (44%) for -202.74 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, TEXAS, DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3712-3272 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -525.94 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, NY METS, SEATTLE, MIAMI, ATHLETICS
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 332-168 (66.4%) for +42.62 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-156 vs. STL), SEATTLE (-171 vs. PIT)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 309-270 (53.4%) for +27.84 units and an ROI of 4.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-113 vs. BOS), LA DODGERS (-148 vs. HOU)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-19 (+12.01 units, ROI: 32.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 81-166 (-63.94 units, ROI: -25.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+107 vs. DET)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 36-72 in their last 108 tries (-20.81 units, ROI: -19.3%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+107 vs. DET)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 232-239 run (+18.41 units, ROI: 3.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+128 at CHC), CLEVELAND (+107 vs. DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 207-141 in their last 348 tries (+25.15 units, ROI: 7.2%).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-185 vs. LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 108-120 (-59.05 units, ROI: -25.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-156 vs. STL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MINNESOTA +104 (+20 diff), BOSTON -108 (+16), LA ANGELS +154 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SAN DIEGO -133 (+18 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BAL-ATL OVER 8.5 (+1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) ST LOUIS (47-42) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (53-35)
Trend: CHC is the most profitable team as a ML favorite this season (46-23, +14.70 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-156 vs STL)
(903) CINCINNATI (46-42) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (51-37)
Trend: Nick Lodolo has an 18-11 (+8.46 units) record vs. teams with a winning record in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+146 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 7-10 (-11.38 units) as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range with starter Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-180 vs. CIN)
Trend: PHI is 14-6 (+5.01 units) vs. NL Central teams with starter Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-180 vs. CIN)
(905) MILWAUKEE (49-39) at (906) MIAMI (39-47)
Trend: MIL is solid as a ML favorite this season (31-17 record, +7.58 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-144 at MIA)
(907) TAMPA BAY (48-40) at (908) MINNESOTA (42-46)
Trend: MIN hasn’t been good in day games this season (18-26 record, -14.56 units)
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+103 vs. TB)
(909) LOS ANGELES-AL (43-44) at (910) TORONTO (50-38)
Trend: LAA has been profitable on the road this season (23-24 record, +9.41 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+151 at TOR)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 21-6 (+11.15 units) in the last 27 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-185 vs LAA)
(911) DETROIT (55-34) at (912) CLEVELAND (40-46)
Trend: Over the total is 28-16-1 (+10.40 units) in Tigers’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-CLE (o/u at 9)
(913) BOSTON (44-45) at (914) WASHINGTON (37-51)
Trend: WSH is awful as a ML favorite (7-19 record, -17.31 units) this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-113 vs. BOS)
(915) NEW YORK-AL (48-40) at (916) NEW YORK-NL (51-38)
Trend: Carlos Rodon is 6-13 (-14.44 units) in the last 19 road starts vs. NL teams
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-143 at NYM)
Trend: NYM has been good at home this season (32-13 record, +11.21 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (+118 vs. NYY)
(917) BALTIMORE (38-49) at (918) ATLANTA (39-48)
Trend: Under the total is 26-14-3 (+10.60 units) in Braves’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-ATL (o/u at 9.5)
(921) HOUSTON (53-35) at (922) LOS ANGELES-NL (56-33)
Trend: Under the total is 14-4-2 (+9.60 units) when HOU is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-LAD (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: HOU is 7-1 (+6.27 units) on the road against NL teams with a > 55% win pct with starter Framber Valdez in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+122 at LAD)
(925) TEXAS (43-45) at (926) SAN DIEGO (47-40)
Trend: Patrick Corbin is 6-12 (-5.84 units) as a night underdog between line range of -105 to +120 with Patrick Corbin in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+109 at SD)
(927) SAN FRANCISCO (47-42) at (928) ATHLETICS (37-53)
Trend: Luis Severino is 12-33 (-18.51 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+148 vs. SF)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #2: LA Angels at Toronto, Fri 7/4-Sun 7/6
Trend: Home teams are 13-22 (37.1%, -15.65 units) in the last 35 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays
– The ROI on this trend is -44.7%.
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-185 vs. LAA)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Post-Rivalry Series Betting Opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, July 11)
