The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, June 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: UNDERDOGS are on a 24-11 (68.6%, +20.24 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 57.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+100 vs TOR)

* Since the start of last season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 294-193 for +61.21 units, a ROI of 12.6%!
System Matches (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+122 vs NYM), CLEVELAND (-122 vs STL), KANSAS CITY (+137 vs LAD), ATLANTA (-157 vs PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at HOU)

* Teams on winning streaks of 5-games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 158-122 (+15.83 units, ROI: 5.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-119 vs CHC), MIAMI (+128 at AZ)

* HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 330-166 (66.5%) for +43.25 units and a R.O.I. of 8.7%
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-121 vs TB)

Trend: ATH is 12-26 (-10.49 units) in DAY game starts by JP Sears in L3 years
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+229 at NYY)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

BACK teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the ’25 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 105-66 for +26.21 units, and a ROI of 15.3%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the ’24 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+122 vs NYM), CLEVELAND (-122 vs STL), KANSAS CITY (+137 vs LAD), ATLANTA (-157 vs PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at HOU)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 30-35 for -14.78 units when not matched up against similar. This represents a ROI of -22.7% and it is proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+128 at ATL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 82-105 for -26.36 units when not matched up against the same. This represents a ROI of -14.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (+104 vs SEA), SAN DIEGO (+128 at CIN)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 185-98 for +39.75 units, when not matched against the same. This represents a ROI of +14%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario. This angle has gone 38-16 for +11.99 units since I introduced it two-and-a-half weeks ago.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-290 vs ATH), KANSAS CITY (+137 vs LAD), ATLANTA (-157 vs PHI)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 82-168 for -38.23 units when not matched up against the same. This represents a ROI of -15.2%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+211 at MIL), WASHINGTON (+104 at LAA)

FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an R.O.I. of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 61-24 for +7.20 units. This remains an uncustomary winning year for this angle, although we are getting closer to the RED after another -3.48 units these past twelve days.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-290 vs ATH)

BACK big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A ’23 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The R.O.I. on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a VERY strong start, 91-28 for +19.82 units, a ROI of 16.7%.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-265 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25. For the season the record is now 207-240 for +7.20 units, ROI +1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+104 vs SEA), PITTSBURGH (+122 vs NYM), KANSAS CITY (+137 vs LAD), SAN DIEGO (+128 at CIN), MIAMI (+128 at AZ), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at HOU)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a R.O.I. of -8.6%. For this year, they are 110-113 for +0.89 units (ROI 0.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The R.O.I. on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle so this year’s results (57-55, +1.36 units) are somewhat surprising.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – MINNESOTA (+114 at DET), LA DODGERS (-167 at KC), HOUSTON (-119 vs CHC)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in ‘23, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in ’25 and so far it is 116-91 for -1.07 units, even after having recovered from a very slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-265 vs COL), MIAMI (+128 at AZ)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the BETTING SPLITS pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the ’23 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the ’24 full season results, along with some notes about the early ’25 returns:

  • 2024 Majority HANDLE on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 UNITS – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • 2024 Majority number of BETS on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 UNITS – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • 2024 Majority HANDLE on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 UNITS, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • 2024 Majority number of BETS on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 UNITS – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority HANDLE on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 UNITS – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of BETS on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 UNITS, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the HANDLE was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 UNITS and a ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, DETROIT, MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority BETS groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not TOO MANY of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 UNITS and a ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettors afloat considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): TAMPA BAY, ST LOUIS, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority HANDLE bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge HOME FAVORITES of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 UNITS and a ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority HANDLE bettors have been at their worst overall in INTERLEAGUE GAMES since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 UNITS and a ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, SAN FRANCISCO, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO CUBS, LA ANGELS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority HANDLE betting groups backed HOME FAVORITES with LESS WINS on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for UNDER the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and a ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SD-CIN, WSH-LAA

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 395-382 (51%) for +19.82 units of profit. This represents a R.O.I. of 2.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+100 vs TOR), ATLANTA (-157 vs PHI)

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1824-1734 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -250.95 units. This represents a R.O.I. of -7.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, TORONTO, WASHINGTON, LA ANGELS, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, MIAMI

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1808-2300 (44%) for -202.78 units and a R.O.I. of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS, SAN DIEGO, NY METS

HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3686-3250 (53.1%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -523.25 units and a R.O.I. of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, LA ANGELS, TEXAS, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA

Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 544-461 (54.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +18.34 units, for a R.O.I. of 1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+137 vs SF), CLEVELAND (-121 vs STL)

Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 330-166 (66.5%) for +43.25 units and a R.O.I. of 8.7%!
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-121 vs TB)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 304-269 (53.1%) for +23.53 units and a R.O.I. of 4.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, LA ANGELS, TEXAS, ATLANTA

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the ’23 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 230-238 run (+16.89 units, ROI: 3.6%).
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+137 vs LAD)

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of 5-games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 67-54 (+17.57 units, ROI: 14.5%) in their last 121 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+128 at AZ)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5-games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 158-122 (+15.83 units, ROI: 5.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-119 vs CHC), MIAMI (+128 at AZ)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of 5-games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 204-141 in their last 345 tries(+21.24 units, ROI: 6.2%).
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+128 at AZ)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 108-118 (-55.54 units, ROI: -25.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-167 at KC)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATHLETICS +229 (+38 diff), PITTSBURGH +122 (+19), TAMPA BAY -101 (+17), CHICAGO CUBS -102 (+16)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS -126 (+23 diff), DETROIT -138 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATH-NYY UNDER 9.5 (-1.1), NYM-PIT UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), SD-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(953) SAN DIEGO (44-37) at (954) CINCINNATI (43-39)
Trend: UNDER the total is 17-8 (+8.20 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-CIN (o/u at 9.5)

(955) MIAMI (35-45) at (956) ARIZONA (41-40)
Trend: AZ is 17-8 (+8.07 units) in DAY games with start by Brandon Pfaadt since the start of the ’23 season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-156 vs MIA)

(957) COLORADO (18-64) at (958) MILWAUKEE (46-36)
Trend: MIL is 29-15 (+9.32 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-265 vs COL)

(961) ATHLETICS (33-51) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (47-34)
Trend: UNDER the total is 15-0 (+15.00 units) in L15 NYY games
Trend: UNDER the total is 27-13 (+12.70 units) in Yankees’ HOME games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-NYY (o/u at 8)

Trend: ATH is 12-26 (-10.49 units) in DAY game starts by JP Sears in L3 years
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+229 at NYY)

(963) MINNESOTA (40-42) at (964) DETROIT (51-32)
Trend: MIN hasn’t been good in DAY games this season (17-24, -13.41 units)
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+114 at DET)

(965) TAMPA BAY (46-36) at (966) BALTIMORE (35-46)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 19-12 (+4.11 units) vs AL East opponents since 2020
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BALTIMORE (-121 vs TB)

(967) SEATTLE (42-39) at (968) TEXAS (40-42)
Trend: SEA is 10-5 (+4.65 units) in DAY games with starter Bryan Woo since start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-126 at TEX)

Trend: UNDER the total is 29-11 (+16.90 units) in Rangers’ HOME games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-TEX (o/u at 7.5)

(969) TORONTO (44-37) at (970) BOSTON (40-43)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 26-11 (+10.29 units) in DAY games vs teams with a losing record in L6 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-122 at BOS)

(973) SAN FRANCISCO (45-37) at (974) CHICAGO-AL (26-56)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 15-5 (+11.67 units) in his L20 DAY game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+137 vs SF)

(977) CHICAGO-NL (48-34) at (978) HOUSTON (49-33)
Trend: Colin Rea is good in the -120 to +135 line range (23-10 record, +14.43 units since start of ’23 season)
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at HOU)

Trend: HOU is most profitable HOME team this season (31-13 record, +14.43 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-119 vs CHC)

(979) WASHINGTON (34-48) at (980) LOS ANGELES-AL (40-41)
Trend: WSH is 39-20 (+15.49 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at LAA)

Trend: Mike Soroka is 3-9 (-6.73 units) in the -120 to +115 line range since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+104 at LAA)

Series #8: Colorado at Milwaukee, Fri 6/27-Sun 6/29
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 18-9 (66.7%, +5.65 units) in the L27 games between Colorado & Milwaukee
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 20.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-265 vs COL)

Series #12: NY Mets at Pittsburgh, Fri 6/27-Sun 6/29
Trend: FAVORITES are 20-3 (87%, +14.38 units) in the L23 games between Pittsburgh & NY Mets
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 62.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-149 at PIT)

Series #20: Toronto at Boston, Fri 6/27-Sun 6/29
Trend: UNDERDOGS are on a 24-11 (68.6%, +20.24 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 57.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+100 vs TOR)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday, July 1)

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