Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, September 10, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
TEX LETDOWN after series vs. LA ANGELS: 6-24 (20%) -17.45 units, ROI: -58.2%
System Matches: FADE TEXAS (+130 at AZ)
Trend: BOS is 6-19 (-14.90 units) in the months of August/September by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-135 vs BAL)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 11-0 (+11.00 units) as a large HOME favorite of -180 or higher in the L6 seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-250 vs LAA)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 281-237 (54.2%) for +39.21 units and a R.O.I. of 7.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-166 vs CHC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
– On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these 2-game teams have gone 166-207 for -42.56 units (-11.4% ROI). The 3-game teams are 82-86 for -3.75 units (-2.2% ROI).System Matches: 2-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (-155 vs MIA), FADE CINCINNATI (+114 at STL), FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+110 vs MIL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:
– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of BETS on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the HANDLE was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 UNITS and a ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): NONE YET TODAY (watch for PHILADELPHIA vs TB)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority BETS groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not TOO MANY of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 UNITS and a ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettor looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-135 vs BAL), ST LOUIS (-135 vs CIN), SAN DIEGO (-102 at SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority HANDLE bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge HOME FAVORITES of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 UNITS and a ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-250 vs LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as Majority HANDLE bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy ROAD FAVORITES of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 UNITS and a ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-230 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority HANDLE bettors have been at their worst overall in INTERLEAGUE GAMES since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 UNITS and a ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, NY METS, ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority HANDLE betting groups backed HOME FAVORITES with LESS WINS on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON (-135 vs BAL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority HANDLE bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
1. Majority HANDLE bettors in SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units & a ROI of -16.7% since the start of the ’23 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
– In games of the ’23 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! So far in ’24, these teams are again losing money, 112-62 for -26.20 units and a ROI of -15.1%.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-192 vs OAK)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
– A ’23 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI last year. As of 9/8, the record of this angle in 2024 is in negative territory at 100-40 for -9.44 units (4 huge losses this past week).
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-230 at CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was ’23 regular season’s most lucrative system
– In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the ’23 regular season! This angle is so far 66-38 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -17.41 units, a ROI of -16.7%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-192 vs OAK)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
– A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 319-392 record, for -23.76 units (ROI -3.3%). This is below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+130 at PIT), BALTIMORE (+114 at BOS), LA ANGELS (+205 at MIN), TAMPA BAY (+145 at PHI), TEXAS (+130 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (-102 at SEA)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
– Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick em’) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 284-308 record, for +4.03 units (ROI 0.7%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+130 at PIT), BALTIMORE (+114 at BOS), TEXAS (+130 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (-102 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
– In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these 2-game teams have gone 166-207 for -42.56 units (-11.4% ROI). The 3-game teams are 82-86 for -3.75 units (-2.2% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (-155 vs MIA), FADE CINCINNATI (+114 at STL), FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+110 vs MIL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
– Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 171 plays on this angle so far in ’24 through 9/9 and these teams are 98-73 for +11.78 units (6.9% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+114 at BOS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1664-1566 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -206.53 units. This represents a R.O.I. of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, ARIZONA, DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, NY YANKEES
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1583-2024 (43.9%) for -176.88 units and a R.O.I. of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, CINCINNATI, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, OAKLAND
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3361-2951 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -452.69 units and a R.O.I. of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, HOUSTON, BOSTON, NY YANKEES, SEATTLE, SAN FRANCISCO, ARIZONA
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 305-152 (66.7%) for +40.92 units and a R.O.I. of 9%!
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (-135 vs BAL), ARIZONA (-155 vs TEX)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 281-237 (54.2%) for +39.21 units and a R.O.I. of 7.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-166 vs CHC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 179-177 run (+31.47 units, ROI: 8.8%).
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-250 vs LAA)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a 4-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 149-167 (+4.59 units, ROI: 1.5%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-250 vs LAA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS +205 (+30 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -135 (+40 diff), NY METS -130 (+18 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BAL-BOS OVER 9 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational Trend Spots
The following team situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) MIAMI (54-90) at (902) PITTSBURGH (68-76)
Trend: MIA not as good at NIGHT (27-58, -23.30 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+130 at PIT)
(907) MILWAUKEE (82-61) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (71-73)
Trend: OVER the total is 13-6 this season when SF is a HOME underdog
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(909) CHICAGO-NL (74-70) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (86-58)
Trend: LAD better vs LH starters (32-15, +3.58 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-166 vs CHC)
(911) KANSAS CITY (79-66) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (83-61)
Trend: NYY slight OVER vs RH starters (58-42 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(913) BALTIMORE (82-63) at (914) BOSTON (73-71)
Trend: BAL more OVER on the ROAD (41-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(915) LOS ANGELES-AL (60-84) at (916) MINNESOTA (76-68)
Trend: LAA bad vs AL Central/East (18-38, -14.56 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+205 at MIN)
(917) CLEVELAND (82-62) at (918) CHICAGO-AL (33-112)
Trend: CWS slight UNDER at HOME (29-41 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(921) TAMPA BAY (71-73) at (922) PHILADELPHIA (86-58)
Trend: TB slightly better vs NL teams (26-18, +5.75 units)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (+145 at PHI)
(923) COLORADO (54-90) at (924) DETROIT (73-71)
Trend: COL worse on the ROAD (22-53, -12.71 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+154 at DET)
(925) NEW YORK-NL (79-65) at (926) TORONTO (68-77)
Trend: NYM good at NIGHT (53-31, +20.30 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-130 at TOR)
(927) TEXAS (70-74) at (928) ARIZONA (80-64)
Trend: AZ trending OVER vs AL teams (28-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(929) SAN DIEGO (81-64) at (930) SEATTLE (73-71)
Trend: SEA more UNDER at HOME (23-42 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(903) ATLANTA (78-66) at (904) WASHINGTON (64-79)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 7-15 (-6.76 units) vs NL East opponents in his career
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+114 vs ATL)
(911) KANSAS CITY (79-66) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (83-61)
Trend: Seth Lugo is 4-13 (-11.26 units) on the ROAD against teams with a winning record since 2020
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (+120 at NYY)
(913) BALTIMORE (82-63) at (914) BOSTON (73-71)
Trend: BOS is 6-19 (-14.90 units) in the months of August/September by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-135 vs BAL)
(915) LOS ANGELES-AL (60-84) at (916) MINNESOTA (76-68)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 11-0 (+11.00 units) as a large HOME favorite of -180 or higher in the L6 seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-250 vs LAA)
(921) TAMPA BAY (71-73) at (922) PHILADELPHIA (86-58)
Trend: TB is 4-7 (-4.35 units) vs NL teams with Taj Bradley in L2 seasons
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+145 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 5-9 (-11.53 units) as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range with starter Ranger Suarez in L4 seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs TB)
(925) NEW YORK-NL (79-65) at (926) TORONTO (68-77)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 13-5 (+6.87 units) vs NL East opponents in L5 seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+110 vs NYM)
(927) TEXAS (70-74) at (928) ARIZONA (80-64)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 23-5 (+18.60 units) in Sept/Oct/Nov since 2020
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (+130 at AZ)
(929) SAN DIEGO (81-64) at (930) SEATTLE (73-71)
Trend: SD is 10-17 (-9.82 units) in the -102 to -130 line range in NIGHT games with starter Yu Darvish in L6 seasons
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (-102 at SEA)
Trend: SEA is 10-4 (+4.98 units) as a short HOME favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in L3 seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-118 vs SD)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Oakland at Houston, Tue 9/10-Thu 9/12
Trend: Oakland is 7-23 (23.3%, -10.25 units) in its last 30 games vs. Houston.
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -34.2%.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+160 at HOU)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
SAN DIEGO
MOMENTUM after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 18-11 (62.1%) +8.28 units, ROI: 28.6%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 9/10 at Seattle
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-102 at SEA)
TEXAS
LETDOWN after series vs. LA ANGELS: 6-24 (20%) -17.45 units, ROI: -58.2%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 9/10 at Arizona
System Matches: FADE TEXAS (+130 at AZ)
